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TropicalAnalystwx13

Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

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The temperature differential between the inside of the eye and outside of it continues to increase...another indicator of continued strengthening. Moreover, the eye hasn't increased in size and remains fully closed. This is all in addition to the obvious decrease in the central pressure and the attendant increase in the maximum sustained winds.

Consequently, it's possible Patricia has not yet reached its peak intensity!

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Man, I would've loved to see more from recon for that historic 870s measurement, since we all know it is likely happening right now.

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Is this the first 175kt tc operationally?

 

I believe so. I remember a lot of people were talking about Haiyan being the first 170 kt TC when it was peaking.

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This is just stupid.  What an amazing evening. 

 

From the SST anomaly map that I saw, it should be in warmer than average water most of the way.  I don't know about the OHC but the storm is moving at a decent clip anyway.

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This is just stupid.  What an amazing evening. 

 

From the SST anomaly map that I saw, it should be in warmer than average water most of the way.  I don't know about the OHC but the storm is moving at a decent clip anyway.

 

There's plenty of OHC to sustain it given its forward speed. The only questions for intensity should be an ERC and shear as it approaches the coast.

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There's plenty of OHC to sustain it given its forward speed. The only questions for intensity should be an ERC and shear as it approaches the coast.

 

And perhaps topographic disruption (downsloping/drying) as it's making landfall. Too little too late, though?

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Wonder what kind of storm surge there'll be.  Record or near record?  I know the coastline there isn't that conducive for surge far inland (Katrina), but still...

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And perhaps topographic disruption (downsloping/drying) as it's making landfall. Too little too late, though?

 

Yeah, that too, although I don't think it will be as hampering as shear or the ERC. Shear might not even be that much of an issue though considering the possible earlier landfall shown by tonight's guidance. This is going to be another all timer for Josh. I sincerely hope he is prepared.

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Yeah, that too, although I don't think it will be as hampering as shear or the ERC. Shear might not even be that much of an issue though considering the possible earlier landfall shown by tonight's guidance. This is going to be another all timer for Josh. I sincerely hope he is prepared.

 

Where is he located?

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This is just stupid. What an amazing evening.

From the SST anomaly map that I saw, it should be in warmer than average water most of the way. I don't know about the OHC but the storm is moving at a decent clip anyway.

Here's the latest OHC map, along with a few other respective maps that will influence Patricia's intensity prior to landfall.

post-6681-0-18013400-1445585546_thumb.jp

post-6681-0-68367900-1445585575_thumb.pn

post-6681-0-46874100-1445585596_thumb.gi

post-6681-0-77084100-1445585619_thumb.gi

post-6681-0-20781300-1445585637_thumb.gi

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Josh hitting the center is going to be tough. There really aren't that many options where landfall will occur, especially when it's likely coming in at a 5. Gave him hell earlier when he was joking about needing a erc to make it easier.

 

Going to be a crazy few hours today....

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Where is he located?

Last twitter whereabouts was punts perula.

Last tweet was:

@iCyclone: Must sleep. May rethink chase strategy in morning. It's gone from conventional warfare to nukes. Big thanks to all. #Hurricane #PATRICIA

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Josh hitting the center is going to be tough. There really aren't that many options where landfall will occur, especially when it's likely coming in at a 5. Gave him hell earlier when he was joking about needing a erc to make it easier.

Going to be a crazy few hours today....

Even if he misses the absolute center of the eye, anything inside the eyewall is going to be extraordinary...especially if it comes ashore during daylight hours!

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Where is he located?

They keep showing reruns of him on the twc. He will be fine the guy wrote the book on storm chasing. When I said this bad ass looks like a wpac super I guess there is only one other comparable now

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Even if he misses the absolute center of the eye, anything inside the eyewall is going to be extraordinary...especially if it comes ashore during daylight hours!

 

Eye or bust...

 

Of course this is far and away a unique situation. He will head N in the morning and try and find as many possible locations that are viable and then reevaluate.

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Even if he misses the absolute center of the eye, anything inside the eyewall is going to be extraordinary...especially if it comes ashore during daylight hours!

 

If this thing comes ashore at or near its current intensity, I honestly don't even want video of it. The risks are far too great trying to capture it. I imagine an extended period of Charley gas station video conditions. 

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Eye or bust...

Of course this is far and away a unique situation. He will head N in the morning and try and find as many possible locations that are viable and then reevaluate.

I typically share that same perspective.

However, it would actually be a little less intense if he hit the center of the eye as opposed to being in the NE quadrant. This is often the difficult choice for a chaser...where it's either getting into the absolute center of the eye or documenting the absolute highest wind speeds.

In this case, I'd aim for being in the absolute center of the eye as you noted for both an opportunity to capture the stadium effect, the lowest central pressure, and the relative enhanced safety it will afford. In less intense storms, I might be inclined to shoot for the absolute highest winds attainable.

Edit: "relative" being the key word in the above context.

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If this thing comes ashore at or near its current intensity, I honestly don't even want video of it. The risks are far too great trying to capture it. I imagine an extended period of Charley gas station video conditions.

You may have already seen it, but here is arguably the most intense TC winds captured on film.

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Had a look on google earth, the predicted landfall is near Chalacatepec which is a sandy spit along a 50-100 mile stretch of largely unpopulated coastline with sandy beaches, inland lagoons and a slowly rising but essentially flat low-density farmland. Two small towns about 15-20 miles inland, Jose Maria Morelos, and Campo Acosta, on Mexican route 200, might still have cat-4 conditions during landfall if the track verifies.

 

Perula (where I understand Josh is located) is on a south-facing bay about 50 miles east of the predicted landfall zone, and I would expect cat-3 conditions there with a large storm surge likely (15-25 ft) despite some disruption from islands offshore. It would appear that Perula is about that high up above tide level on an elevated sandy spit and one might assume that a storm surge might create some areas of waist-deep water or up to second storey level on streets closest to the beachfront, but if the track veers a bit west this outcome might be averted. If the track curves around a bit more than expected, this would become a very unsafe location as storm surge could run to 30 feet in some areas between the eyewall and this location (but as mentioned, only sandy beaches and isolated farmhouses or tourist huts shown on the map in the impact zone).

 

From landfall, the gradually decaying hurricane will have to cross a fairly high range of hills as it moves northeast past the large city of Guadlajara where (Saturday) conditions will peak at strong tropical storm 50-80 mph and perhaps 5 inches of rainfall. Considerably worse conditions are likely in the zone along Mexican route 80 running southwest to the coast, and this is where mudslides might be most likely given the more rolling terrain.

 

If this thread happens to be read by anyone with any interests in emergency management in the area, two things come to mind -- the storm is going to have a devastating eye and regions 25-50 miles east from its landfall and 25-50 miles inland may sustain severe damage. Anyone in an isolated location within 25 feet (8 metres) of sea level in that zone should be advised to move far inland to a safer location. Conditions on the west side of the track will improve considerably faster than on the east side. Puerto Vallarta on this forecast track should see something like cat-1 or low end cat-2 winds from northeast (inland direction) and only moderate storm surges.

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