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Everything posted by jbcmh81

  1. Are all of your 6000+ posts this insufferably whiny?
  2. This reminds me of all the Charley "not that bad" posts. This always happens right after a hurricane before the full scope of the damage is known.
  3. Through yesterday, 2019-20 has the 24th lowest total snowfall for Columbus. There are 2 years in the past 20 that beat that- 2016-17 and 2001-2002. 2019-20 has been warmer than 16-17, but slightly colder than 01-02, so 01-02 is definitely the worst winter of the past 20 years, but we're talking minor differences between the 3. 19-20 is, so far, the 9th warmest winter on record.
  4. There hasn't been any winter weather at all along and south of I-70 since December 17th. Consider yourself lucky to be getting sleet.
  5. This could be the first time in history Columbus goes through January and February with less than 1" of snow combined. It's really looking like the exact same pattern for February as January. Warm, rain, some flurries, repeat. It's one of the worst winter patterns I've ever seen. If there is no accumulation over the next week, it enters the top 10 least snowfall to date. Most of the rest of the state isn't doing much better.
  6. Futility looks to continue into February. If it's going to be this bad, might as well root for a top 5 most sh**tastic winter of all time. I can easily see February being warm and snowless too. Ohio will probably have a cold spring that immediately turns to summer- so like every year.
  7. Save for the winters of 1925-26, 1933-34, 1935-36, 1944-45 and 1947-48, the period of 1920-1949 is by far the worst for winter weather. Of those 30 seasons, only the five mentioned had normal or above snowfall, and almost as few had below normal temperatures, at least in Columbus. The average snowfall for the period was just 16.3", a full foot below what it's been in the most recent 30 seasons. There were 11 seasons in a row with below normal snowfall (1936-37-1946-47), the longest such period on record.
  8. So with this latest storm being a bust and nothing on the horizon but more rain, this is looking like the first January in 76 years to have no measurable snowfall in Columbus. It would be just the 3rd time in history to have occurred, both other times before 1950. Dayton and Cincinnati also have had no measurable snowfall. Most of the winter forecasts have been Bastardi-level awful. Just an epic fail all around.
  9. Winters that have single-digit snowfall at the end of January are VERY unlikely to end up even close to normal. It's only happened a few times, and none of those were as warm as this winter has been. In Columbus, there have been 50 winters where snowfall was in the single digits through January 31st. Of those 50, just 4 had enough snowfall the rest of the winter to reach or exceed normal. 2019-20 is almost guaranteed to end up well below normal. The average snowfall of those 50 is almost 13" below normal. The story is similar for Dayton. February-March would have to be epic, and that seems unlikely at this point. The winters in reference are 1905-1906, which had one of the snowiest Aprils on record, 1959-1960, which had a fantastic late February and March, 1970-1971 which had a rare 9" snow in February and 1992-1993, which benefitted some from the Blizzard of 93.
  10. So through the first 11 days of January in Columbus Avg High: 49.4 5th warmest on record Avg Low: 34.1 7th warmest on record Mean: 41.7 6th warmest on record Snowfall: Trace 2nd lowest on record Precip: 2.13" 13th wettest on record Safe to say that January will end up above normal even with a colder 2nd half. The pattern looks pretty dry after the mid-week rainer once it does get colder. Since December 1st, the records are very similar with temperatures running in the top 10 warmest winters on record. The 71 degree high yesterday was the 3rd highest temperature ever recorded in January and was a record for the day.
  11. For Michigan and the Upper Lakes/Midwest, it looks fine, but the OV still looks like trash in the extended.
  12. For the supposed pattern change upcoming after the 16th, it appears to be the same pattern in terms of storms for the Ohio Valley- rain then cold front and dry, then rain, cold front and dry. Maybe the cold periods are colder and a bit longer, and there aren't record highs during the rainstorms (there will still be days in the 40s and 50s), but other than that, it's not looking that impressive outside of the areas north of I-80, which have been the areas that have had anything during the current pattern. This is looking like one of the exception winters from the stats I posted earlier in the season, with January easily being well above normal in temperatures overall with well below normal snowfall. I suppose that could change in February-March, but it's unlikely to save the season overall without a February 2010 kind of pattern.
  13. Some stats... take them as you will. For Columbus... Since 1878, there have been 32 years that saw at least 2.5" of snow by November 30th, similar to 2019. Of those 32, 19 of the following winters had above to much above normal snowfall. An additional 3 had normal snowfall, with the remaining 10 being below to much below normal. 4 of those below normal years came within the abnormally bad snow period of 1920-1949, during which there were just 4 winters that reached normal snowfall. The remaining 6 were scattered across the other decades. Half of the below normal years still reached at least 20" for the season. The overall average snowfall for the 32 was 30.9" So overall, the early season snow was much more of a positive sign than not for snowfall. As for cold, 18 following winters were colder than normal, 6 were near normal and the remaining 8 were above normal. The average temperature was 30.2, a bit more than 1 degree below normal.
  14. The first week or so of November 2018 was actually around normal/a bit warmer than normal, with 4 days hitting at least 60. The coldest weather happened after the 8th, which limited 2018's position on this particular ranking. 2018 does show up on the coldest average high ranking, though, for the first 15 days of November. This year looks to blow that away, though.
  15. Regardless of any snow threats, this week after Wednesday and into next week is looking pretty cold through at least mid-month. For Columbus, here were the coldest November 1-15 periods. Top 10 Coldest Average High: 1976: 43.5, 1967/1997: 44.7, 1996: 44.9, 1991: 45.1, 1910: 45.4, 1894: 45.7, 1921: 46.5, 1995: 46.6, 2018: 47.5, 1907: 47.7 Top 10 Coldest Average Low: 1976: 26.3, 1991: 27.2, 1908: 29.8, 1995: 30.2, 1951/1954: 30.9, 1886: 31.1, 1996: 31.3, 1953: 31.4, 1921: 31.9, 1905/1910: 32.3 Top 10 Coldest Mean: 1976: 34.9, 1991: 36.2, 1996: 38.1, 1995: 38.4, 1967: 38.8, 1910: 38.9, 1908: 39.1, 1921: 39.2, 1894/1951: 39.3, 1886: 40.0 Models have been spitting out average means for the first 15 days between 34-37 degrees. There doesn't seem to be any direct correlation to winter as there were both awful and very good winters in these years.
  16. There are now at least 15 individual tornadoes confirmed so far in Ohio, with surveys still ongoing. This includes 3 EF3s, 4 EF2s, 4 EF1s and 4 EF0s. I'm not sure of the exact rank, but it'd definitely be a top 5 single-day outbreak in Ohio history even if no more are added. EF3 across much of Montgomery County, including Trotwood EF3 across Beavercreek Township EF2 in NE Montgomery County south of Vandalia EF0 in Miami/Montgomey Counties near Phillipsburg EF0 southeast of Circleville OH (Pickaway County) EF1 south of Tarlton OH (Pickaway County) EF2 near Laurelville OH (Hocking County) EF3 in Celina, OH (Mercer County) EF1 in New Madison, OH (Darke County) EF2 in West Milton, OH (Miami County) EF0 in Taylor Creek Township, OH (Hardin County) EF1 northeast of Jamestown, OH (Greene/Fayette Counties) EF2 northeast of Jamestown, OH (Greene/Fayette Counties) EF1 west of Wapakoneta, OH (Auglaize County) EF0 near Waynesfield, OH (Auglaize County)
  17. Damage being reported in Circleville, Laurelville and areas in between.
  18. I have relatives in Circleville... heading in that direction.
  19. November, January and February all had normal to above normal snow, even though it immediately melted each time it snowed. The fact that it’s been super wet and “cold enough” at times has allowed for it.
  20. So I70 is on the line between a lot of snow and mix/rain? Haven’t ever seen that before.
  21. Meanwhile, the GFS has maybe an inch in the next 10 days. The main difference is a storm showing up for the 12-14th. The GFS takes the main low into northern Michigan while the FV3 has it in north central North Carolina. Only a small difference. I guess the bright side is that both at least have some kind of storm.
  22. Temp stuck at 0 for hours at the airport. Not good if the forecast low is to be reached.
  23. Today's official high will be 14. I was too cold. It's a shame the afternoon temperature won't go into the records. Now let's see how cold it gets tonight.