jbcmh81

This is why the 71/70 corridors have such a crap history with really big snowfalls. Conditions have to be absolutely perfect to see something like a double-digit snowfall.

Low actually looks a tiny bit further SE at 12z on the GFS, but the warming is even greater.

I meant with the NWS radar site.

Good site. The NWS radar is such a hot mess. I like the multiple view options, but everything is painfully slow to load and so, so glitchy that it's worthless.

I don't know if the low moved further NW, but it is showing the mixing line a bit further NW, so yeah. Same result. Still the warmest model. Low through central WV looks most likely, with mix at or near 71. It's going to be really close and will be the difference between 4"-6" totals and 8"-12" totals.

I agree with you about it staying snow if it hits as heavy snow, but I can't discount the possibility of a classic Central Ohio bust. It's happened too many times with too many heartbreaks. The fact that the first round has mostly missed to the west is a bad sign.

Anyone want to change their calls? First round underperformed I think, not that it was supposed to be much. Most of the models now have the mixing line reaching 71. As mentioned last night, I thought Columbus might bust too high because of that danger. I had them at 8.5", but now thinking no more than maybe 7". Still something to watch, but yeah, you can't beat climo too often in these situations.

I dabbled on WW for a time as well. I didn't post much those days- not that I'm super prolific now. Yeah, it was a total sh*tshow back then.

I was on some of the weather forums going back to Weather.com and NEwx. Around 1995-96 I think was the first big winter I remember on them.

It's nowcast time anyway. Forger the models at this point.

It's probably overdone, but it would be unwise to fully discount it. It's hardly without precedent.

Would certainly be a historic storm if it ended up like the Euro.

Probabilities are dropping for higher totals, too. This is looking more and more like a special for I-75 and points west. Maybe I was way too early with the total calls.

Sub 6" line has crept into Franklin County on the latest NAM. It's kind of on its own, but we'll see.

So what's everyone's call? Instead of giving a range, I'll just put out exact amounts and see how close I am... Columbus: 8.5" Dayton: 10.5" Cincinnati: 9.5" Toledo: 8" Cleveland: 11" including some lake enhancement. Max total somewhere in the state would be in the neighborhood of 15", I think, probably around the northern Miami Valley. I might be too low with a few of these, but I'm definitely incorporating climo. Biggest bust potential is Columbus being too high if the storm ends up further NW and Toledo and Cincy being too low.

Looks like most of that is from the first storm, at least closer to 71. Further NW will probably do well with both.

Yep. I will say the NAM is always furthest NW with everything, but something to watch with that obvious dryslot. Still shows a solid 6"+, but when it comes to the 71 corridor, these types of trends should be freaking everyone out. It would be classic to be in the bullseye for days only to have it slip away at the last minute while those who thought they would miss it get slammed.

The north trend with this first one should be concerning for anyone hoping for mostly snow from the 2nd. It's not been subtle, and if it continues to the last minute, I could see the I-71 corridor getting screwed with lower totals. Still looks good at this point, but that NW trend has always been a killer and why climo doesn't support big snow (double digits) through Central Ohio. ILN may be lowballing it compared to models, but they have a reason to be cautious. CLE is definitely too low in NW Ohio. It's not even a question.

9.8", which is as close to double digits as you can get. Most of the heaviest stuff fell just south of the river. But overall, Cincy has had a good winter. It's already above average for the entire season I believe.

Cincinnati came really close to double-digits just last week. I think some of the metro hit that.

March 2008 was such a great, long-duration event. However, it's not exactly been 13 years for all of Central Ohio. February 5-6, 2010 saw 12"-15" for some areas along and north of I-70, and February 15-16, 2010 hit a foot in a few spots. Double-digit snowfalls are exceedingly rare in Central Ohio, though. If we go by single-day totals, there have only been 3 since 1884. 2-day events, you only have 10. So this event could be historic from that perspective.

What happened to him?

You'd need an electron microscope to see that movement, and the back edge of the most northern extent along 70 is pushing through Dayton with nothing at all behind it. Inch or less for the I-70 corridor, but the tier of counties just to the south could easily see 5"-6" considering what they're seeing. Delaware, Union, etc. probably won't see a flake. Newark might do slightly better since it's further east, but all the heavy stuff will miss you too.

Total whiff for I-70 north. I don't think the stuff out in Missouri is going to save you all. Columbus will be lucky to see a tenth the way things look now, a far cry from 2-4". I would expect those advisories to be dropped at some point.

That's a nice way of pretending that map's not super painful for Central Ohio snow weenies.