Mitchel Volk

No I was at Lyndon state colleges by 1974 the University of WI from 78 to 8@ then Brooklyn ever since.

In 1973 Oceanside LI had no snow measurable until mid March when there was a tons of thunderstorms with S+ at times got a couple of inches before the changeover to sleet and rain. The snow started in the evening and by the time I woke it it was bare ground. The only other snow that year was a brief snow flurry in February.

Snowing in Cobble Hill again around 3” today

Yes my parents return to Oceanside LI where I grew up with 2 inches of ice in the car and Oceanside had just rain. In 1994 NYC had snow and sleet. But when I did field work and went to Staten Island everythwas glazed in about .5” of ice, it was beautiful

1973 was an incredible ice storm for NYC, 1994 Staten Island had one

ISP des much better AM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: ISP LAT= 40.78 LON= -73.10 ELE= 98 7P JAN28 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 7P 28-JAN -0.4 -6.5 1017 84 89 541 527 SAT 1A 29-JAN -1.4 -5.7 1012 95 89 0.17 539 530 SAT 7A 29-JAN -5.4 -8.2 1002 92 89 0.62 531 529 SAT 1P 29-JAN -9.4 -8.4 999 89 88 0.47 522 523 SAT 7P 29-JAN -7.8 -9.8 1001 63 87 0.20 521 520 SUN 1A 30-JAN -11.9 -11.5 1007 61 7 0.00 523 518

Intel’s after 12Z not much for NYC NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: NYC LAT= 40.77 LON= -73.98 ELE= 89 7P JAN28 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 7P 28-JAN -0.4 -8.0 1017 88 87 540 526 SAT 1A 29-JAN -3.0 -7.3 1013 92 88 0.09 538 528 SAT 7A 29-JAN -8.6 -9.6 1005 89 88 0.36 529 526 SAT 1P 29-JAN -8.2 -11.4 1003 86 88 0.12 524 522 SAT 7P 29-JAN -8.9 -11.0 1004 61 83 0.05 523 519 SUN 1A 30-JAN SUN 7A 30-JAN SUN 1P 30-JAN SUN 7P 30-JAN MON 1A 31-JAN MON 7A 31-JAN MON 1P 31-JAN MON 7P 31-JAN TUE 1A 01-FEB TUE 7A 01-FEB Exclusive Benefits

Looks further east on the 18Z NAM.

Overall the last few runs except the GFS has been amazing consistent maybe a shift of a few miles but not much. So it will be interesting to see if they continue this or start a shift in a direction the next few runs. The cutoff is so intense, where ISP may see 18” while northern Orange County get very little with the city on the edge. Any little shift will make a huge difference especially at 500MB for the city. Right now I’m thinking 6-12”

No way, that’s the challenge and the fun, yes stressful but fun.

No sanitation, Joshua Rapp works for OEM

Wow you see most of the 00Z short range models trend to the west. Then the GFS trends way east, boy this is a tough forecast. Hopefully by tomorrow 9:30 things come into better agreement for my next official forecast for my job at sanitation.

NAM good up to 48-60hrs after that toss out, professionally speaking.

NAM/WRF 40Km FORECAST FOR: NYC LAT= 40.77 LON= -73.98 ELE= 89 7P JAN26 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 7P 26-JAN -4.7 -18.1 1031 47 3 539 515 THU 1A 27-JAN -7.0 -14.8 1031 64 4 0.00 546 522 THU 7A 27-JAN -8.4 -12.7 1032 82 6 0.00 549 525 THU 1P 27-JAN -2.2 -10.9 1029 59 8 0.00 549 527 THU 7P 27-JAN -2.4 -6.7 1026 63 38 0.00 547 527 FRI 1A 28-JAN -2.1 -6.0 1023 72 92 0.00 546 528 FRI 7A 28-JAN -2.3 -7.1 1021 88 91 0.01 544 527 FRI 1P 28-JAN 1.1 -8.1 1021 66 66 0.00 542 526 FRI 7P 28-JAN 0.1 -9.7 1020 67 83 0.00 541 525 SAT 1A 29-JAN -4.9 -10.2 1019 74 82 0.00 539 525 SAT 7A 29-JAN -9.1 -11.3 1016 87 87 0.10 537 526 SAT 1P 29-JAN -10.4 -9.1 1008 84 87 0.14 532 526 SAT 7P 29-JAN -8.1 -10.6 1004 49 90 0.06 527 524 SUN 1A 30-JAN SUN 7A 30-JAN Exclusive Benefits

I believe it’s still too early to forecast amounts. Too much of the forecast is still in the air,

Except for the NAM the models have been very consistent with little 50mils shifts. So at this time it is still really hard to pinpoint the storm effects over NYC. We see who wins ECMWF or the others.

Looks like the Gefs are just about the same as the 18Z run, however there is a good chunk to the south and west at very low central pressure so the GFS runs may go further west in the future it’s way too early to tell.

The 850 MB 18Z low is significantly deeper than the 12 Z ECMWF run and in the same position. An interesting trend

The later one. I remember the the long range 72 prog forecasted it and we at Lyndon State College we’re impressed by the model performance. Boy have times have change.

It’s kinda of looking like the 1978 storm. The only difference is the phasing while the 78 storm was formed by incredible digging this storm may have both. Of course things can change, but this is interesting for sure.

The windshield wiper effect is in effect. This is more favorable than a continued west trend towards an inland runner. So the actual track is more likely up the coast not inland. So NYC may see some snow or a lot is still in question, the chance for mainly rain has decreased

Remember it’s only Monday. A lot can change, thou I do think it will be stormy with snow or a changeover at the coast. Don’t forget the March storm a few years back where it had it east, then a blizzard then mainly rain and Albany get the blizzard.

Still way to early to tell.

All rain here in Cobble Hill Brooklyn got about an inch.