jburns Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So you're saying snow could last longer than modeled thanks to evapporational cooling? Interesting... What it gains on the back end will be lost on the front end. Expect quite a period of virga as things begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So you're saying snow could last longer than modeled thanks to evapporational cooling? Interesting... No, what i'm saying is surface temps will likely be colder by several degrees initially which means temps will likely stay subfreezing longer...which will impact freezing rain accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Posting again for anyone that missed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 00z UKMET is a dream run for NC. 4-8" of legit all-snow for most of the state (and also good for SC/GA) from a southern slider on Fab Feb 16th with temps in the teens, and then it looks like we're going to get another storm post-hr 144. It's frigid at the surface and in the mid-levels, so snow totals could be higher with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well that's 3 consecutive runs of the Ukmet that have showed a major winter storm with no switch to rain at the end. It has also been consistently getting the party started earlier, by around lunchtime on Monday. Sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMET is a big ice storm (again) for KCAE/most of SC. At least .50 in KCAE from the first round. Temps never get out of the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 00z EPS mean shifted further S/E. Mean snowfall has increased accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It also appears that both the Euro ensemble mean and the euro control are holding high pressure in place longer than the 12z run and also ticked south with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Start time on euro is noonish Monday? Or Monday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ukie is south and all snow for most of nc. It really buries tenn, and north ga. It screws the mid Atlantic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It also appears that both the Euro ensemble mean and the euro control are holding high pressure in place longer than the 12z run and also ticked south with the surface low.ensemble mean shifted south to running the low over the nc mtns instead of West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Excellent disco last night crew. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ukie is also the quickest to eject this wave so after high temps in the 20,s on Sunday we get precip in on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet can you be right just one time in your life? One of the positive trends is that the early overrunning precip shooting out from the southwest seems to be directing itself farther south (across the TN Valley and Southeast). Long way to go, the south trend has to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ukie is also the quickest to eject this wave so after high temps in the 20,s on Sunday we get precip in on Monday Looks like its ridge in east Pac is farther east...doesn't dig as much into the SW and wave stays flatter and is quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet can you be right just one time in your life? One of the positive trends is that the early overrunning precip shooting out from the southwest seems to be directing itself farther south (across the TN Valley and Southeast). Long way to go, the south trend has to hold everyone is hugging the ukie right now. Weenies model of choice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One thing that I'm noticing on almost every model is the high RH numbers at 700MB. I wonder if we could get going with this event 12 hours earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One thing that I'm noticing on almost every model is the high RH numbers at 700MB. I wonder if we could get going with this event 12 hours earlier than expected.Does that make it around noon on Monday? I think I read one model had precip starting around that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the 0z euro has that wrapped slp going right over central NC. That's not to good for the Triangle is it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One thing that I'm noticing on almost every model is the high RH numbers at 700MB. I wonder if we could get going with this event 12 hours earlier than expected. This definitely has the feel of a system that precip shoots way out ahead of the system.... probably sooner than modeling indicates. And could wind up with a VIRGA storm overhead before precip begins. Remember though... if the model handles temps and dewpoints throughout the atmospheric column correctly, it *does* account for evaporation. So, any QPF should not be 'lost' due to evaportation, again assuming the model has temps and dewpoints correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks to me like the Ukmet is right up there with the Euro in terms of model verification at 500mb. It's definitely superior to the GFS/CMC. Here are the 5 day and 3 day forecast stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS Control run is a 74 special. 6+ from Asheville to CLT with 8-10" maxes around Asheville and Rutherfordton/Shelby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the 0z euro has that wrapped slp going right over central NC. That's not to good for the Triangle is it?? No. I hope the Euro continues to trend further SE with the LP track. That's not a great track for East Central NC (MBY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Another shift SE with the 6z DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No mention of the 06z GFS? It is further south once again. Parts of NC look to start out with 2-4" of snow (more in the foothills). Also, the LP now cuts into central NC instead of up into TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Another shift SE with the 6z DGEX. Man thats what I am talking about. DGEX trending away from all other models, that is a good sign. GFS looks solid for WNC currently as does the Euro. Euro ensemble trending better for snowfall is giving me growing confidence for this storm. On other fantasy snowstorms this winter that theuro ensemble showed, at around day 5 out they began to dry or warm up but as of the 00z run the EPS has continued to increase snowfall totals for most of us. I think this is a good sign for all of us and is a trend that hopefully will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 06 GFS for CAE says rain ending in snow 150217/1200Z 126 06008KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100150217/1500Z 129 06010KT 36.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 0|100150217/1800Z 132 07008KT 38.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.278 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150217/2100Z 135 10008KT 42.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 0| 0|100150218/0000Z 138 19017KT 57.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 0| 0|100150218/0300Z 141 20019KT 59.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 0| 0|100150218/0600Z 144 21023KT 61.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150218/0900Z 147 24013KT 61.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.376 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18 0| 0|100150218/1200Z 150 26016KT 51.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.190 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.37 0| 0|100150218/1500Z 153 29013KT 47.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.47 0| 0|100150218/1800Z 156 36010KT 47.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.48 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150218/2100Z 159 02013KT 38.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.239 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.72 0| 0|100150219/0000Z 162 03013KT 35.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.79 41| 0| 59150219/0300Z 165 01016KT 29.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.84 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thinking and hoping euro is holding back energy a little to long and amping it up a little to strong. We all need to root for it all to come on out and eitheir / or weaker, futher south... aka ukie style. Also the overrunning always gets started earlier than modeled 9 times out of 10, so keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 FWIW, new 00z EPS mean "snowfall" numbers... for must of us, this is the best they've looked all season: GSO: 4.25" RDU: 3.1" CLT: 3" PGV: 2.25" AVL: 4.6" CAE: 0.9" GSP: 3.25" ATL: 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like the look of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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