mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC Frz Rain Ouch! Really hoping for the NW trend! I enjoy power and stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ouch! Really hoping for the NW trend! I enjoy power and stuff! When I said that last night it worked out thankfully for KCAE. UKMET is another story most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty sure the GEFS is now tracking the low across Upstate SC. Which is another shift SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 With the moisture from the baja low ejecting out, this one should have good precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty sure the GEFS is now tracking the low across Upstate SC. Which is another shift SE. Yep, if you compare the 12z to 18z to the latest 0z GEFS they have all ticked south. Granted the opposite may happen tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GEFS mean has 3" almost to RDU, 4" to GSO/INT. Looks more classic E-W overrunning instead of the SW to NE orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z euro is quite a bit further south. has some front end light snow even for north ga/upstate with what looks like freezing/sleet thereafter. Not very heavy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like some fireworks are about to go off on the Euro. Trend towards the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 precip sliding in 6 or so hours early on the EURO. Making a huge difference. More front end snow for NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 that was through hour 126...hour 132 though there is a LONG fetch of moisture all the way from the carolinas to new mexico even lol..temps in the 20s in the carolinas and 32 to about athens/gainesville. Snow in nc, ice ne ga/upstate. Hour 138 it's gone over to rain for ne ga/upstate and a mix in nc. One thing is for sure, the potential is there for a long duration or high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 hour 144..still ice in damming regions of north carolina before going to rain by hour 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 With temperature so cold before this event and how they tends to hang around in valleys longer than modeled, I'm slowly starting to buy into this snow threat at least for us in Western NC. Finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Me jetting off to Europe is going to be good luck for you guys it appears- Euro 1-3" of snow/sleet ATL north followed by some ZR overnight, then just rain so any issues will not be long lived, but hey, its something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 that was through hour 126...hour 132 though there is a LONG fetch of moisture all the way from the carolinas to new mexico even lol..temps in the 20s in the carolinas and 32 to about athens/gainesville. Snow in nc, ice ne ga/upstate. Hour 138 it's gone over to rain for ne ga/upstate and a mix in nc. One thing is for sure, if temps end up staying below freezing this is a long duration and heavy impact event.Can we really believe the warm up will happen that quick? As Grit pointed out, GFS has high in the Atlantic, GGEM and UKMet , had highs in the NE and in much better placement to lock CAD! Where is high placement on Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Me jetting off to Europe is going to be good luck for you guys it appears- Euro 1-3" of snow/sleet ATL north followed by some ZR overnight, then just rain so any issues will not be long lived, but hey, its something.... I always take euro surface temps in eroding wedge situations at face value.../sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Huge winner on the Euro clown snow qpf- central/western TN, well over a foot. 5" plus far north GA but some of that is sleet/ZR. Also some heavy rain/even maybe severe for the Gulf Coast. Quite a storm on the Euro...and I get to miss it all..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 For N/W NC, verbatim, we're looking at 2-3" of legit snow, then over to ZR and/or IP after hr 138. Temps are still below freezing at hr 144 and rise to 33 at GSO by hr 150 (foothills at 32). During that time, a good amount of precip falls. Then by hr 156, the wedge erodes and temps skyrocket to 53 (30s/40s for the foothills). Yeah, good luck with that. The wedge will erode, but I doubt it rises that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z euro is quite a bit further south. has some front end light snow even for north ga/upstate with what looks like freezing/sleet thereafter. Not very heavy though. The drunk doc fired some massive warning shots tonight...either its got more tequila in it, or its almost dual phase storm is gonna produce. light wintry out ahead of the storm, but the back end energy is VERY interesting.....if that crap is correct, which it prolly isn't...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If the Euro is correct that CAD may hold on a bit, but the LP coming in is so strong it will overwhelm the surface cold by later Tuesday and certainly by Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Can we really believe the warm up will happen that quick? As Grit pointed out, GFS has high in the Atlantic, GGEM and UKMet , had highs in the NE and in much better placement to lock CAD! Where is high placement on Euro? I'd be shocked if it didn't hold on quite a bit longer for a several reasons...especially carolinas/extreme ne ga but it would changeover eventually. The bottom line is though the trend this run is very good. This run even gets northern alabama/ms and northwest ga into the fun though..at least for a little while. Not very often you see ice/sleet/snow over such a large area. btw in fact as the main low slides off to the east, looks like a changeover to snow on the back end for most in ms, alabama, tn, and even into north ga. (this is after temps getting into the 50s and 60s lol) not heavy but icing on the cake of a very long and dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the Euro might give some of us some backend action. 984 mb LP over RIC at hr 168. Looks like a hell of a cold blast post-storm. Single-digits for I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If the Euro is correct that CAD may hold on a bit, but the LP coming in is so strong it will overwhelm the surface cold by later Tuesday and certainly by Wed agreed!! however, I am almost just as interested in how the euro is handling the back end vorticity. that is some mean energy coming back, and has a very nice change over for some to our west. I still don't know what to believe in...the drunk doc still had some MASSIVE changes at H5 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I will have new respect for the UKMET if everything goes its way and it verified this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the Euro might give some of us some backend action. 984 mb LP over RIC at hr 168. Looks like a hell of a cold blast post-storm. and there is more energy coming back down through the rockies....ridge looks GREAT out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Boston get crushed big time yet again D7. Maybe the one that will break snowiest winter record there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 euro has temps below 0 in tn (as far south as maybe huntsville even) afterwards with widespread single digits in ms, alabama and northern half of ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The Euro pushes a pretty decent freeze into much of the Florida peninsula, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 btw, to give you some idea of how cold and dry the airmass ahead of this system is. A few hours before precip starts, the canadian has surface temps of around 32 in north ga with dewpoints of 0 to -5F!. Which means wetbulbs would be around 23 to 25.That is about as low as you will see for winter storms most of the time here. (average wetbulbs for winter storms here are probably 28 to 31 here in north ga from my experience) So there will be a huge amount of evaporational cooling with this and it's almost a given the models are not handling that amount of cooling correctly yet. Euro never does. fwiw, the canadian is seeing temps drop to around 28 here after saturation. So it's retreat time of freezing temps would already be in error right from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Trends have been good on the models. Looks like a pretty good winter storm either way. Just a matter of how much will be snow and how much will be ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 btw, to give you some idea of how cold and dry the airmass ahead of this system is. A few hours before precip starts, the canadian has surface temps of around 32 in north ga with dewpoints of 0 to -5F!. Which means wetbulbs would be around 23 to 25.That is about as low as you will see for winter storms most of the time here. (average wetbulbs for winter storms here are probably 28 to 31 here in north ga from my experience) So there will be a huge amount of evaporational cooling with this and it's almost a given the models are not handling that amount of cooling correctly yet. fwiw, the canadian is seeing temps drop to around 28 here after saturation. So it's retreat time of freezing temps would already be in error right from the start. So you're saying snow could last longer than modeled thanks to evapporational cooling? Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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