DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 here comes the backside snow for the majority of the board thru 140, talk about a long duration event. not sure if this is the 2nd wave or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This reminds me a lot of the 1/30/10 system. Whole lot of similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anybody else notice the trailing energy coming across northern Florida at hour 138? Hopefully this will blow up off the SE coast and ride up the coast. Any thoughts on this yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anybody else notice the trailing energy coming across northern Florida at hour 138? Hopefully this will blow up off the SE coast and ride up the coast. Any thoughts on this yet?trough is too positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet has weak sfc low in northern Louisiana and 1030+mb high over Lake Huron at hr96. It's faster getting the storm in than GFS. It doesn't look as suppressed as its previous run which was the farthest south, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The warming on the gfs seems really out to lunch but i actually hope it happens because if it stayed below freezing this is going to bad for damming regions That's a lot of moisture and surface temps are almost surely going to be lower and last longer than what the gfs is currently showing. ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet has weak sfc low in northern Louisiana and 1030+mb high over Lake Huron at hr96. It's faster getting the storm in than GFS. It doesn't look as suppressed as its previous run which was the farthest south, but we'll see Sfc low just off the NC coast on UKMet at hr120...so looks to be another good run from it...not quite as suppressed as its previous run I don't think though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The warming on the gfs seems really out to lunch but i actually hope it happens because if it stayed below freezing this is going to bad for damming regions That's a lot of moisture and surface temps are almost surely going to be lower and last longer than what the gfs is currently showing. ouch. I don't have a link but I think it was noted that the "new" GFS has a warm bias at the SFC as compared to the "old" GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMet has weak sfc low in northern Louisiana and 1030+mb high over Lake Huron at hr96. It's faster getting the storm in than GFS. It doesn't look as suppressed as its previous run which was the farthest south, but we'll seeonly 7 more hours till we get to see the good ukie maps on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sfc low just off the NC coast on UKMet at hr120...so looks to be another good run from it...not quite as suppressed as its previous run I don't think though It's a good bit faster...The 12z gfs has the sfc low back on the southern borders of La. and Ala. at hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 its odd to be in the position of hoping this doesn't thread the needle in between the cold shots. usually it's the other way around lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 The warming on the gfs seems really out to lunch but i actually hope it happens because if it stayed below freezing this is going to bad for damming regions That's a lot of moisture and surface temps are almost surely going to be lower and last longer than what the gfs is currently showing. ouch. It has my interest, and I believe there is a warm bias again with the gfs, but I'm not sure to what extent. Anywho.....for those to my north and west it's looking good.....for now Edit: I see I was ninja'd by Moto....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The warming on the gfs seems really out to lunch but i actually hope it happens because if it stayed below freezing this is going to bad for damming regions That's a lot of moisture and surface temps are almost surely going to be lower and last longer than what the gfs is currently showing. ouch. Good Grief. I don't want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I don't have a link but I think it was noted that the "new" GFS has a warm bias at the SFC as compared to the "old" GFS. I'm pretty close to 100% sure it's too warm right from the start since it fails to grasp how dry the airmass is ahead of this system. Like I said last night, the wetbulbs are absurdly low on the canadian and with earlier and earlier onset time of precip, this run is a good 6 to 12 hours faster with light snow across the northern half of ga for example, that temps would probably stay in the 30s..where earlier runs of the gfs had it getting to 45 to 50 monday. Last night's canadian is much colder than the gfs with highs only in the low to mid 30s with precip moving in that evening and dewpoints in the single digits to below zero even. this is going to be an excellent system to see how the new gfs performs. It has my interest, and I believe there is a warm bias again with the gfs, but I'm not sure to what extent. Anywho.....for those to my north and west it's looking good.....for now It's obviously harder to say what will happen in central areas but one thing is for sure you will have the dry airmass to start with too. It's just a question of if/when the warm air advection wins over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Very nice western ridge(576dm-582dm) A very nice polar vortex moving south(492dm) A bombing low pressure Sunday(970mb) A most likely decent wedge setting up Heights are lower,pushing south.SE ridge might get forced far enough south to allow something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 FWIW, the Navgem is coming in way south of it's previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1042 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 15 2015 - 12Z THU FEB 19 2015 ...FRIGID ARCTIC BLASTS WITH STORMY WINTER WEATHER... ...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO OFFER BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD INTO TUE/DAY 5. THIS LENDS PREFERENCE FOR A COMPOSITE BLEND OF COMPATABLE 06 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS AS A BASEMAP FOR WPC SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS. THIS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL INPUT INCORPORATES MORE SMALLER SCALE DETAIL THAN NORMAL AS CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTABILITY. FORECAST SPREAD INCREASES ENOUGH INTO DAYS 6/7 TO INCREASE UNCERTAINTY TO AT LEAST AVERAGE LEVELS SO BY THEN USED A MUCH MORE ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED FORECAST APPROACH WITH A 30/70 MIX OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THESE REPRESENT SOLUTIONS ON THE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW QUITE AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM RIDGE PATTERN ALONG/OFF THE NOAM WEST COAST ALONG WITH POTENT/WELL SPACED ERN PACIFIC AND DATELINE LOWS FEEDING INTO THAT RIDGE. THE ECMWF IS A STARK OUTLIER AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THOUGH SO PREFER TO LIMIT INCLUSION GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AT LONGER TIME FRAMES. ...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... A DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NERN US/CANADIAN MARITIMES POLAR VORTEX SUN-MON WILL USHER IN DEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN US IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP NERN US COASTAL LOW AND TRAILING FRONT. THIS OFFERS AN AMPLE STORM THREAT FOR NEW ENGLAND IN PARTICULAR ALONG WITH A HUGE WIND/WAVE EVENT SPREAD WELL INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS COLD ONSET AIR ALSO SETS THE STAGE FOR A LARGE SCALE WINTER WEATHER THREAT EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED/COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN SHOWING THE UPSTREAM WRN US RIDGE RETROGRESSION AND STRONG AMPLIFICATION OFFSHORE AND UP TOWARD ALASKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEEP PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPMENTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW UNSETTLING TROUGH DIGGING ALOFT WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING THROUGH THE WRN AND CENTRAL US INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A POTENT COLD SURFACE HIGH INFUSIONS. THIS SUPPORTS AN EMERGING SW US AND S-CENTRAL GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES SNOW THREAT AIDED BY TERRAIN/UPSLOPE FETCH. WRN NOAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION ALSO LEADS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE/WAA RETURN FLOW PATTERN MON-WED INTO/OVER AMBIENT AND SLOWLY RECEEDING LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL US DOWNSTREAM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WAVY COLD FRONT. PENDING STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS AND SWEATING THE IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...THIS OFFERS SOME PROLONGED HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW AND DANGEROUS/TRANSITIONAL HEAVY ICING ACROSS A POTENTIALLY LARGE THREAT AREA IN VICINITY FROM THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VALLEY MON NEWD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US AND ERN/NERN US ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING OVERALL PCPN SHIELD. WPC WEATHER/PCPN TYPE GRIDS OFFER A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION AND A MORE AMPLIFIED DAY 6/7 WPC SCENARIO LEAVES THE DOOR MORE OPEN FOR POSSIBLE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENTS THAT COULD ADD CONVERGENCE/PCPN THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 new uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC is going to be a big hit for NC and GSP areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS at 102 from James Spann. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 12z cmc looks further south also. Faster than the 12z gfs w/ the precip but not as fast as the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC is going to be a big hit for NC and GSP areas. Yep...Looks like a snow to ice so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Verbatim CMC is a big ice storm....snow to start...then sleet then ZR for anyone south of 40. North of 40 looks to go snow to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big hit on the CMC for WNC, SW SC, and I'd say NE Ga. also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Modeling is finally diminishing the ice threat for KCAE, and shifting it to the Upstate. This includes the 12z GFS, UKMET, GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think I am about ready to start honking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Cmc snow maps are gonna be pure weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think I am about ready to start honking. I agree Allan...Looking more and more like a snow/ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The CMC is NASTY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Canadian is full of sleeze (sleet and freezing rain). It has a small contour of 2.0-2.5 inches of accumulated freezing rain in S Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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