UNCCmetgrad Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Did you see how cold we get? Down to 0 on thursday! I saw that. EURO thinks there is snow on the ground so it goes crazy with surface cooling but there will likely be nowhere near that amount at least around here. I saw a PDF presentation somewhere that the Euro is supposed to get a major upgrade to its precipitation type algorithms sometime this year making it much better at resolving sleet and freezing rain from snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I only have 6 hour frames but 2" is even more than EuroWx maps gave RDU. At 138 0.5" is the previous 6hr precip at RDU and that's not snow, at 144hrs it's right at 2C at 850mb over RDU, 6 hr precip from 144-150hrs is 0.2" for RDU. I have SV and their snow maps looked great for RDU...But they also include all frozen P types I belive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have SV and their snow maps looked great for RDU...But they also include all frozen P types. I hate snow maps at this juncture just because of the track. Make the track more east and they'd be more believable but I don't even glance at them right now if the slp doesn't look good. This crushes Raleigh and RDU with ZR, enough to shut us down and take out power for sure. Trust me I'd prefer the snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I only have 6 hour frames but 2" is even more than EuroWx maps gave RDU. At 138 0.5" is the previous 6hr precip at RDU and that's not snow, at 144hrs it's right at 2C at 850mb over RDU, 6 hr precip from 144-150hrs is 0.2" for RDU. Agree, it's a 1-2" of snow and a whole lot of ice. Verbatim 2m's peak at 32-33F for a few hours for RDU. Like you said, there hasn't been any run to run consistency and probably won't for a couple of more days. Eye candy for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The blocking is nice, I sure hope that holds, gets stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 btw, surface low is south of the canadian. southeast alabama/or around columbus or a little south of there. heavy precip everywhere by 138. cold air coming in from the back end... freezing line goes from just west of atlanta to the nc/sc/ga border to gso. Some back end snow in northern alabama, northwest ga/mountains. This **MAY** get VERY interesting for your parts...EURO is VERY close to that, if not showing that. I wouldn't be surprised if it could sneak in other places in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I was looking at the gfs. The canadian is just a couple of degrees cooler at the onset with a much lower dp It would be the work of the portals, that mby would be in the 70's while 30 miles just to my north and west, frozen precip is falling....sigh I do too....early 2000's and I'm thinking 04 or 05? Anywho....it's nice to see a bone being thrown out to the se peeps before winter is over Would be freaking wild to see you are having a severe thunderstorm, while i was having a crippling ice storm here in Blythewood.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Generally, a safe way to know if you're going to get snow or not is how far you are from the low pressure center. Generally those 200-250 miles Northwest/North of the low will get snow....sometimes, even West if the precip wraps around the low pressure system well. If the low pressure center is right on top of you, north of you or just barely south, you're likely getting Ice or rain. The warm advection from the Southwest is too much to overcome. That's why looking at snow maps is kind of useless in a set up like this. The most critical thing is the low pressure track. That's why I personally want this to trend more South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Latest CIPS analog snow map (75th%)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Latest CIPS analog snow map (75th%)... Can you explain what this map is showing, and how much faith we should put in it based on your experience? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro compare at 500mb. Main things are that the NE low is stronger, ridging out front of the NE low is stronger, the red 540 height line thru the Ohio Valley is farther south...all good for the south trend. Also, the ridge out west is slightly east from last night although not easy to pickup without seeing a series of images. By the way, I have a question - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45697-do-you-like-ice-storms-frz-rain/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Generally, a safe way to know if you're going to get snow or not is how far you are from the low pressure center. Generally those 200-250 miles Northwest/North of the low will get snow....sometimes, even West if the precip wraps around the low pressure system well. If the low pressure center is right on top of you, north of you or just barely south, you're likely getting Ice or rain. The warm advection from the Southwest is too much to overcome. That's why looking at snow maps is kind of useless in a set up like this. The most critical thing is the low pressure track. That's why I personally want this to trend more South. Ga wants it in Fla. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Can you explain what this map is showing, and how much faith we should put in it based on your experience? Thanks! It takes the top analogs based on various factors such as 5h and calculates top analogs. It then will give you mean/median/75th snow output for those analogs. I posted the 75th% because it's the weeniest run, how it comes up with 75% I am not sure. If you look at the analogs it's a whose who for SE winter storms. Edit: Forgot to mention, I do like the CIP's analogs, I think they have merit but would rather this be 72 hours out instead of 120 hours out. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro compare at 500mb. Main things are that the NE low is stronger, ridging out front of the NE low is stronger, the red 540 height line thru the Ohio Valley is farther south...all good for the south trend. Also, the ridge out west is slightly east from last night although not easy to pickup without seeing a series of images. By the way, I have a question - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45697-do-you-like-ice-storms-frz-rain/ Look at the strong ridging into Greenland too. We are going to need all the help we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ga wants it in Fla. T So does SC That doesn't happen often enough Until then.....I'll enjoy the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Did you see how cold we get? Down to 0 on thursday! and down to -12 in the mountains! Actual air temp (not wind chill). That would absolutely smash all-time records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 and down to -12 in the mountains! Actual air temp (not wind chill). That would absolutely smash all-time records.snow pack ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, NWS Raleigh's afternoon discussion goes into detail, so I will post the entire thing. (sorry for the length) .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY......THREAT OF SOME WINTRY WEATHER TUE IN CENTRAL NC IS GROWING BUTDETAILS REMAIN MURKY...SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL LOW WILL BETRACKING NE JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN MORNING AS THE SURFACEFRONT PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE... WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTEREDOVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDING INTO NC. DRY AND STABLE COLUMN WILLENSURE CLEAR SKIES. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORNINGLOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS AND 850 MB TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE-18C TO -22C RANGE WILL RESULT IN A REDUCED DIURNAL TEMP RISE... ANDDESPITE GOOD MIXING... THERMAL PROFILES AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST THATHIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S... VALUES ALSOSUGGESTED BY RECENT CONSISTENT NCEP CFS RUNS. BRISK WIND SPEEDS WILLTREND DOWNWARD LATE IN THE DAY BUT NEVERTHELESS THE COLD TEMPS ANDWINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MUCH OF THE DAY.SUN NIGHT IS LIKELY TO SEE OUR COLDEST TEMPS OF THIS STRETCH...FACILITATED BY THE ABATING WINDS (AS THE HIGH CENTER CROSSES MI ANDTHE RIDGE STARTS TO NOSE INTO NC) AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS... HOWEVERTHE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMMAY TAKE A SLIGHT EDGE OFF FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS 7-16...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO THREATEN OR BREAK RECORD LOWS FOR THAT DAY. THEMID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGHOUT MONDAY WITH LOWERING BASES ASSOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO EJECT FROM THE CLOSED LOW NOWWOBBLING/SLOWLY RETROGRADING OVER NW MEXICO. BUT THE INITIAL VERYDRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND INITIALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD KEEPMONDAY DRY... ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES LATE MON IN THE SOUTH CANNOTBE RULED OUT IF CLOUD BASES CAN LOWER SUFFICIENTLY. BUT OVERALL...EXPECT JUST A CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY... THE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORETHE STORM... WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NC FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THEFIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY... AND CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME WINTRYPRECIP IS INCREASING. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID NORTHERN STREAM AIRIN PLACE AND THE INJECTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CULMINATING INPHASING IS A TYPICAL RECIPE FOR WINTER WEATHER IN THIS REGION... ANDTHIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.SYNOPTIC SETUP: NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE DESERT SW INTOTHE SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO MON NIGHT INTO TUE... AND THISRESULTANT FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH THEN KICKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSVALLEY AND EASTERN STATES THROUGH WED. AT THE SURFACE... A FRONTALZONE WILL INITIALLY EXTEND ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ACROSS THE GULFCOAST... WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TX OR LA COAST ON TUE. THIS LOWIS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SW GA TUE AFTERNOON OR EVENING (THE 12ZECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS WITH THIS)... THEN THISENERGY TRANSFERS TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW JUST OFF NC OR VA WITHA GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE REARWARD LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH UPTHROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS UP TOWARD THEMARITIMES WED... AS STRONG VORTICITY CENTERS ROUND THE MEAN TROUGHBASE AND TRACKS ENE THROUGH NC.PRECIP PATTERN: BEING THE FASTER SOLUTION... THE GFS BRINGSMEASURABLE POPS INTO THE SRN CWA OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT... WHILE THEECMWF HOLDS PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND SW BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL SPLITTHE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND BRING IN SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHLATE MON NIGHT. DEEP AND STRONG LIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TUE/TUENIGHT... WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST QPF ONTUE... WHEREAS THE ECWMF FOCUSES ITS GREATEST AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT. INEITHER CASE... THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF FORCING ANTICIPATED...INCLUDING VIGOROUS MOIST UPGLIDE / STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGIONUPPER DIVERGENCE / HEIGHT FALLS... SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPSTUE/TUE NIGHT... AND THESE WILL NO DOUBT NEED TO GO UP TOCATEGORICAL FOR SOME TIME FRAME IN LATER FORECASTS. TOUGH CALL ON ADEPARTURE OF PRECIP BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP TOLINGER ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRSTHALF OF WED... FOLLOWED BY A TREND TOWARD DRY CONDITIONS WEDAFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.PRECIP TYPES: USING A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES WHICHSEEMS PRUDENT FOR A DAY-5 FORECAST WITH SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTYPARTICULARLY WITH TIMING... EXPECT PRECIP TO START AS A MOSTLY VERYLIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE IN THE SOUTH... ASTHE PRECIP TRIES TO OVERCOME THE INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. ASRATES INCREASE TUE WITH WARMING TAKING PLACE IN THE 925-800 MBLAYER... PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION DURING THE DAY TO MOSTLY RAIN INTHE SE WITH A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN TWOTHIRDS EXCEPT LINGERING MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTH. BYNIGHTFALL... WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN OVER THENORTHWEST QUARTER WITH MOSTLY RAIN ELSEWHERE... ALTHOUGH IF THETRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWS CONTINUES TO EDGE SOUTHWARD... THEN MOREOF THE CWA WILL SEE WINTRY PRECIP LINGERING WELL INTO TUE NIGHT.THICKNESSES INDICATE A RETURN BACK TO MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS WED WITH THE COLDER AIRRUSHING BACK IN... HOWEVER WE SHOULD START DRYING OUT ALOFT BY THISTIME... YIELDING MORE OF A TREND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. BUT GIVEN THATTUE/WED IS DAY 5/6 OF THE FORECAST WITH A LOT OF MODEL RUNS TO VIEWAND STILL CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY AMONGST THE SOLUTIONS... WILLKEEP IT BROAD-SCALE AND TREND TO JUST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOWWED BEFORE ENDING. IT`S FAR TOO EARLY TO GET INTO PARTICULARS OFAMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL ACCRUAL/ACCUMULATION... GIVEN THE REDUCEDCONFIDENCE AT THIS FAR RANGE. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS tracks the low from s-GA up I-95 through NC/SC. Plasters w-NC into TN. Front end slop for NC/SC to rain, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 and down to -12 in the mountains! Actual air temp (not wind chill). That would absolutely smash all-time records. I believe the record is -17 for Asheville from 1985 so that'll be interesting. Got my doubts because of snowpack bias, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS tracks the low from s-GA up I-95 through NC/SC. Plasters w-NC into TN. Front end slop for NC/SC to rain, verbatim. How does that track compare to the 0z run? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS mean snowfall, which is fairly conservative, has 4-5" right through RDU, 6-8" for GSO/INT, 10"+ for w-NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So does SC That doesn't happen often enough Until then.....I'll enjoy the rain I'm hearing the raw Euro #s are actually predominantly snow/IP here over ZR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS tracks the low from s-GA up I-95 through NC/SC. Plasters w-NC into TN. Front end slop for NC/SC to rain, verbatim. Thru hr108 on Euro Ens Mean on wxbell, same type trends at 500mb are occurring as Op run....in a nutshell, slightly more suppressed from previous run...that's been the theme all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How does that track compare to the 0z run? Thanks! Fairly close, except the Op was a few hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How does that track compare to the 0z run? Thanks!0z had an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Fairly close, except the Op was a few hours slower. Thanks, I wonder is some of the individual members put more emphasis on the first wave. Is that something that can be looked at later when the individual member data comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I roughly counted 21 EPS members with 2 inches or more on the snow maps (grain of salt) for KCAE. That's a HUGE up tick around here and makes it obvious of the Southern trend. Member 47 is a monster through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm hearing the raw Euro #s are actually predominantly snow/IP here over ZR! That's good news CAE......... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH SATURDAY...BUT NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE NOW APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE 20S. EXPECT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS. IF THE WINDS STAY UP A BIT LONGER THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD FALL INTO SINGLE DIGITS. AT THIS TIME...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY DOES LOOK TO BE NEEDED...BUT WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE CRITERIA FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 5 DEGREES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING MOST OF THE DAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER MOVING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. A WEDGE-RIDGE PATTERN INDICATES ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY LINGER FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NC/SC BORDER. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SE WITH COLDER AIR FARTHER SOUTH AND FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXIST AND THE EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARMING OCCURS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRIOR RUNS INDICATED THAT THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z had an apps runner. Wow! Then that is another 200 mile shift? This is shaping up to be a solid winter storm for many of us in the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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