packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think I am about ready to start honking. Honk, Honk! I thought you have already been honking on twitter. We would love to hear more detailed thoughts from you. Thanks for keeping us updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Canadian Sleet & Frz Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow, the Canadian is like 7" of snow and 0.75" ZR here. I think I'm all-in after these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC for most of NC ends up being snow to ice...to major ZR...then back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Canadian QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z canadian not as cold as the 0z run in general. a lot faster with the surface low. however i do question it driving the surface low right over atlanta and into the heart of the wedge. Would make for quite a temp contrast though. 32 in hartwell while it's nearly 50 in atlanta tue afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC gives Nashville about a foot of snow though, and about an inch of snow down my way... then apocalyptic ice for all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Seeing an area of 1.50" of ZR into Upstate SC. Big swatch of 1" or more into NC. With the UKMET shifting North also, I think KCAE could possibly squeak out of this one without much ice if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z canadian not as cold as the 0z run in general. a lot faster with the surface low. however i do question it driving the surface low right over atlanta and into the heart of the wedge. Would make for quite a temp contrast though. 32 in hartwell while it's nearly 50 in atlanta tue afternoon. Wondering if the CMC sees the HPS out over the Atlantic allowing it to ride North? If the HPS was up over Virginia it would not allow it to come that direction. Just a guess on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC for most of NC ends up being snow to ice...to major ZR...then back to snow. Been a while since we had a winter storm like that. That would be a huge impact. Snow is one thing, but ice on top of it is bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like between 1.2-1.5 QPF for MBY. CLT is at or below 32 the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like between 1.2-1.5 QPF for MBY. CLT is at or below 32 the entire storm. And wouldn't be a lot of melting until Friday if temps being shown are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Seeing an area of 1.50" of ZR into Upstate SC. Big swatch of 1" or more into NC. With the UKMET shifting North also, I think KCAE could possibly squeak out of this one without much ice if any. Shawn, I thought it was very rare if not impossible to have that type of ice storm. The dynamic cooling or the cold air leaving would not let an ice storm last that long. Is that not correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Seeing an area of 1.50" of ZR into Upstate SC. Big swatch of 1" or more into NC. With the UKMET shifting North also, I think KCAE could possibly squeak out of this one without much ice if any. Keep in mind the canadian is likely too warm by at least 2 or 3 degrees. Last night I felt like it was possibly as much as 4 degrees too warm based on wetbulbs vs it's projected lowest temp. Wondering if the CMC sees the HPS out over the Atlantic allowing it to ride North? If the HPS was up over Virginia it would not allow it to come that direction. Just a guess on my part. I have serious doubts about the 12z canadian for a few reasons. for starters, again, surface wetbulbs argue for cooling more than projected..and when the models under estimate the amount of cold air with the wedge they often will drive the surface low too far north into the wedge which in turn over estimates the amount of warming that goes along with it. So the amount of warming in north ga/central south carolina/columbia is probably over done for both those reasons. There still would be a lot of ice in far northeast ga before going to rain and It still manages to hang on subfreezing temps throughout the entire event in the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And wouldn't be a lot of melting until Friday if temps being shown are correct. On the canadian, we are below freezing from Hour 66 to Hour 198! That is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Shawn, I thought it was very rare if not impossible to have that type of ice storm. The dynamic cooling or the cold air leaving would not let an ice storm last that long. Is that not correct? I don't have pure raw sounding data or any of that off the GGEM, but latent heat due to ZR can affect temperatures yes. In fact, heavy ZR is the worst thing because it will release more heat faster etc. That is if you want the ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Shawn, I thought it was very rare if not impossible to have that type of ice storm. The dynamic cooling or the cold air leaving would not let an ice storm last that long. Is that not correct? I hate to mention this events name but 12/4/2002 was a high QPF ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 12z gefs mean is south also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like between 1.2-1.5 QPF for MBY. CLT is at or below 32 the entire storm. Regardless of what happens, it sure looks like this is going to be a fun storm for the western carolinas...almost a lock where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 12z gefs mean is south also. South of 6z gefs or the 12z op? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I hate to mention this events name but 12/4/2002 was a high QPF ice event. Good point. Thanks and yes I remember that storm. Just seems like Ice takes a perfect storm if you will and normally corrects itself. Of course look what happened in Augusta last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Regardless of what happens, it sure looks like this is going to be a fun storm for the western carolinas...almost a lock where you are. Dont jinx me like that, chris! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Regardless of what happens, it sure looks like this is going to be a fun storm for the western carolinas...almost a lock where you are.this looks nasty up here with snow to ice back to snow with very cold temps behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 South of 6z gefs or the 12z op? Thanks! South of 6z op and gefs. It is also colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Why Chris, Why would you curse us.. Regardless of what happens, it sure looks like this is going to be a fun storm for the western carolinas...almost a lock where you are. However, starting to look Tasty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS Ens Mean - 06z on top, 12z on bottom - for Tues AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Keep in mind the canadian is likely too warm by at least 2 or 3 degrees. Last night I felt like it was possibly as much as 4 degrees too warm based on wetbulbs vs it's projected lowest temp. I have serious doubts about the 12z canadian for a few reasons. for starters, again, surface wetbulbs argue for cooling more than projected..and when the models under estimate the amount of cold air with the wedge they often will drive the surface low too far north into the wedge which in turn over estimates the amount of warming that goes along with it. So the amount of warming in north ga/central south carolina/columbia is probably over done for both those reasons. There still would be a lot of ice in far northeast ga before going to rain and It still manages to hang on subfreezing temps throughout the entire event in the upstate That's something I'll be watching closely. You nailed the Jan event last year imby, while I was expecting more ice than snow/ip. As it stands now(verbatim) mby is a chilly rain/warm rain/rnsn to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z GEFS continuing the track through GA/SC. If the Euro runs the same play, we have a rough area between ATL/MACON & Orangebug/CAE for the path. Of course, this is just a rough track and has to be figured out because it can have severe implications on ptype for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think the blocking over the top that is setting up is really helping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hmmm....yesterday the max snow was over the lower Ohio valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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