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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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UKMet maps are out.  It's a damn throwback to the late 1800's.  It's a west to east tracking sfc low.  850mb 0 deg or below in all of TN and all of NC except it warms above 0 deg in SE portion of the state on one panel.  Sfc temps drop into the upper teens during the precip in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro.  Clown map has 9-13 inches of snow in TN, a little lighter amounts in N AL/ N GA/ N SC.  4-8 across much of NC, more in N Mtns. 

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"You serious about that Clark?"

 

AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SOME VERY INTERESTING TRENDS ARE SEEN IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
PERIOD BEGINS QUIET ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AIR MASS MOVING PAST TO THE N. THIS COLD AND DRY AIR MASS
MAY CREATE PROBLEMS ONCE WE GET INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT INCREASING...WITH REGARDS
TO DEVELOPMENTS ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE LATCHING ONTO A SOLUTION
WHEREBY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FROM THE SW ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE PLAINS. THIS TROF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL PICK UP/KICK OUT AN OLD WAVE THAT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WSW
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COMMENCE BY THE END OF
THE DAY FROM THE WEST...WHILE UPPER DIVERGENCE SPREADS OVERHEAD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS IS HAPPENING ABOUT 6-12 HOURS EARLIER THAN
WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THE EARLIER THE PRECIP BEGINS...THE MORE
LIKELY IT WILL BE THAT THE DEPARTING COLD HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY
ENOUGH AIR MASS AS TO LOCK IN AN IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH
TEMPS BELOW 32F OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FCST AREA MONDAY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE ALSO MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...ALTHO
NOT YET SO MUCH FROM RUN-TO-RUN...WITH A MORE SRN TRACK FOR THE LOW.
THAT KEEPS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE PTYPE
NOMOGRAM. AS PRECIP SPREADS UP FROM THE SW...THIS COULD MEAN A
PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET IN MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A WARM
NOSE STRENGTHENS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO FORCE A
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM THE SW EARLY TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE PRECIP TYPE COULD BECOME A REAL MIXED BAG.
EVENTUALLY...WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MOST PLACES...
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE LOW MOVES PAST...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
BACK IN FROM THE WEST...BUT FIRST AT LOW LEVELS. THIS COULD FORCE A
CHANGEOVER BACK TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE MTNS...AS THE MID LEVEL
COLD AIR IS STILL SHOWN TO LAG BEHIND. EVENTUALLY...EXPECT PRECIP
TYPES TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE HELD ONTO A LOW POP EVEN E OF THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WOULD MEAN SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS...IN CASE
A DEFORMATION ZONE TRANSLATES SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE
EVENT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY...BUT EXPECT SOME NW FLOW SNOW
POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE TN BORDER. FOR
NOW...HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TYPES. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ABOUT PRECIP AMTS. READERS ARE STRONGLY CAUTIONED TO
MANAGE THEIR EXPECTATIONS UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
.

THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING PAST IN CLIPPER FASHION ON
THURSDAY. WILL CARRY ANOTHER SNOW CHC ON THE TN BORDER TO ACCT FOR
THIS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

 

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UKMet maps are out.  It's a damn throwback to the late 1800's.  It's a west to east tracking sfc low.  850mb 0 deg or below in all of TN and all of NC except it warms above 0 deg in SE portion of the state on one panel.  Sfc temps drop into the upper teens during the precip in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro.  Clown map has 9-13 inches of snow in TN, a little lighter amounts in N AL/ N GA/ N SC.  4-8 across much of NC, more in N Mtns. 

 

Thing. of. beauty.

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UKMet maps are out.  It's a damn throwback to the late 1800's.  It's a west to east tracking sfc low.  850mb 0 deg or below in all of TN and all of NC except it warms above 0 deg in SE portion of the state on one panel.  Sfc temps drop into the upper teens during the precip in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro.  Clown map has 9-13 inches of snow in TN, a little lighter amounts in N AL/ N GA/ N SC.  4-8 across much of NC, more in N Mtns. 

How far down in NGA (I-20 range?)

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UKMet maps are out.  It's a damn throwback to the late 1800's.  It's a west to east tracking sfc low.  850mb 0 deg or below in all of TN and all of NC except it warms above 0 deg in SE portion of the state on one panel.  Sfc temps drop into the upper teens during the precip in Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro.  Clown map has 9-13 inches of snow in TN, a little lighter amounts in N AL/ N GA/ N SC.  4-8 across much of NC, more in N Mtns.

I wonder if it leads the was some more. The SE trend will stop, probably a move NW down the road.

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Sfc temps pretty much stay below freezing the whole time from Columbia to Augusta.  Atlanta is mostly below frz.  850s go above frz though thru N GA and N SC...so its snow to icy mix...or just icy mix.

Am I reading this correctly? It will be colder in Columbus to Augusta than in NE Georgia to say GSP?

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Am I reading this correctly? It will be colder in Columbus to Augusta than in NE Georgia to say GSP?

 

 

Sfc temps pretty much stay below freezing the whole time from Columbia to Augusta.  Atlanta is mostly below frz.  850s go above frz though thru N GA and N SC...so its snow to icy mix...or just icy mix.

 

850s, Mid layers of atmosphere.  Somebody can correct me if I'm wrong. 

 

It's how we get IP and ZR.

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I thought it looked fine Falls, though that initial precip would likely fade out like the Euro with the main event later...Cold Rain would kill us for looking at the NAM

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Ground temps being knocked down significantly ahead of the storm with the Sunday cold. Anything that falls will stay frozen or freeze. I like our chances across almost all of NC for accumulating snow from the first flake. (After the virga storm of course)

Surface temps look cold, too. It might be reminiscent of January 28th and February 12th last year in that regard with perfect accumulating conditions. Even sun angle is going to be meaningless with surface temps that cold.

Of course, assuming this doesn't all fall apart, but I'm pretty confident we'll see something.

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12z GEFS not far off lots of 1000mb lows off the coast (green)

 

 

 

Those that track through the FL panhandle/off the coast would make many in SC/GA very happy.  Wish more people would use these types of maps for a good look at the different ensemble solutions for track.

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