Ollie Williams Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 RNK... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 400 PM EST THURSDAY...WE WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTEREDOVER NEW ENGLAND...WEDGING DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THECAROLINAS. MODELS ARE GENERATING A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW INTHE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...TRACKING IT EAST INZONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATE TUESDAY. OVERRUNNING MOISTUREWILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THEPOSSIBILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ENTERING NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINAEARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAYPHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ON TUESDAY...POSSIBLY TRACKING THESURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND/OR FORMING A SECONDARY LOW OFFTHE CAROLINA COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOODCHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILLEND QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT IF THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW REMAINSDOMINATE. IF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS...PRECIPITATION COULD LINGERINTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD START OUT AS A DRY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN ARIDAIRMASS AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY EVENING. AS THESURFACE LOW TRACKS OR REFORMS OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS MAY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDEVA. DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSSSOUTHSIDE...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OR JUST BE A WET SNOW.THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MOSTLY SNOWEVENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF HWY 460. SINCETHIS IS A DAY 6 FORECAST...A LOT OF VARIABLE CAN CHANGE...THEREFOREI WILL NOT SPECULATE ON AMOUNTS.MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING...DEPENDINGON CLOUD COVER...THEN SLOWLY WARM GOING INTO TUESDAY. AS MOISTUREINCREASES OVER THE REGION...WE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE OF A RISE IN DEWPOINTS THAN LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES. I COOLED OFF TEMPERATURESBELOW GUIDANCE WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO A DRY WEDGE. ICURRENTLY HAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID30S...BUT COULD BE COLDER WITH MODEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THEMID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH UNTIL THE COLDFRONT PASSES TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHERSHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAYINTO THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You leave for 5 minutes... I know, right? In all seriousness, these are the kinds of winter storms that I like, even if they get a bit mixy. The antecedent conditions are going to be pretty much ideal. Very cold, dry air mass in place, cold ground, and it's still during a decent period of the winter where you don't have to worry as much about the sun angle killing everything the next day. If we can continue to see good trends around the track and timing, we finally have a real potential for a high impact event with some staying power. Fingers crossed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ensemble mean for Gastonia and Shelby is almost up to 6". I'd gauge CLT around 4.75 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Def nice support for the euro ensemble, every member shows at least some frozen/freezing precip for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ensemble mean for Gastonia and Shelby is almost up to 6". I'd gauge CLT around 4.75 maybe. GSP area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The ECMWF is showing crazy cold conditions under WNW flow following the "storm" (whatever type of storm it ends up being). Any wintry precipitation that falls has a decent chance of hanging around through the end of the week. Here are the 850s on Thursday at 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ensemble mean for Gastonia and Shelby is almost up to 6". I'd gauge CLT around 4.75 maybe. GSO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Will be interesting to see how this plays out, would love to see nice overrunning kick in as as easy as Monday Pm/Tuesday with coastal taking over later Tuesday/Wednesday, a sort of 1/2 punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know, right? In all seriousness, these are the kinds of winter storms that I like, even if they get a bit mixy. The antecedent conditions are going to be pretty much ideal. Very cold, dry air mass in place, cold ground, and it's still during a decent period of the winter where you don't have to worry as much about the sun angle killing everything the next day. If we can continue to see good trends around the track and timing, we finally have a real potential for a high impact event with some staying power. Fingers crossed....NW trends commence tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Noticing small IMBY type posts in this thread already. We won't know precip amounts, exact types, exact temps, or anything for a few more days. Yes, it is slowly looking like there will be Winter weather for parts of the Southeast. That's all we know right now. Changes will happen on the models between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know, right? In all seriousness, these are the kinds of winter storms that I like, even if they get a bit mixy. The antecedent conditions are going to be pretty much ideal. Very cold, dry air mass in place, cold ground, and it's still during a decent period of the winter where you don't have to worry as much about the sun angle killing everything the next day. If we can continue to see good trends around the track and timing, we finally have a real potential for a high impact event with some staying power. Fingers crossed.... Cold air before, cold air during, and cold air after. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here are the 850 temperatures on the EPS leading up to the event: And, during the event: It appears that a good portion of NC stands a good chance of remaining snow for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS getting stronger with the leading wave so this could start earlier... Earlier the better as the HP moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GSO? 6". Way up from last night (4.25"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6". Way up from last night (4.25"). Sweet. This is setting up extremely nice for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS already has precip moving into the NC mtns by Monday morning & the weak midwest low is no longer there by 93 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Noticing small IMBY type posts in this thread already..[/quote/]Good catch Shawn. Let's try to contain the IMBY post if possible right now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Out to hr93 on GFS...ridge out west is a tick east...so guessing this stays more south like 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The biggest thing I am watching for right now is how does the Northern and southern stream interact, are they separated, do we see just 1 big elongated system, or a quick punch Monday then the bigger of the 2 with the southern (back end) that comes on through. I will be really interested to see if that first piece for Monday and Monday night can keep forcing the 2nd piece further south. IE the southern trend on the models right now. Just remember, this can still go either way *as you all know* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At 99 hrs I think the GFS is a more more further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS already has precip moving into the NC mtns by Monday morning & the weak midwest low is no longer there by 93 hrs.Yep we should probably be rooting for that solution has precip starting to get here at the perfect time Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Will be interesting to see how this plays out, would love to see nice overrunning kick in as as easy as Monday Pm/Tuesday with coastal taking over later Tuesday/Wednesday, a sort of 1/2 punch. I think you might have called this run if the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The low pops in the freakin' gulf on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'll take these more suppressed trends all day long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The low pops in the freakin' gulf on GFS. yes, got a New Orleans low by 105 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 oh my, this is going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Much of North Georgia is getting a good front end snow thump on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 PERFECT storm track.. Looks similar to UKMET track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big hit of snow for GSO at 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 gfs def looks more of a snow/sleet setup vs the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.