mrdaddyman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No mention of the 06z GFS? It is further south once again. Parts of NC look to start out with 2-4" of snow (more in the foothills). Also, the LP now cuts into central NC instead of up into TN. This is good for the western part of the state and a slushy mess for me. Hope the models continue to trend SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartweather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No thread for this storm? Much hesitation as winter has given many curve-balls when sitting on fastball. Seems others were started with less confidence and agreement. Don't post much but You guys are awesome!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No thread for this storm? Much hesitation as winter has given many curve-balls when sitting on fastball. Seems others were started with less confidence and agreement. Don't post much but You guys are awesome!!! I believe the rule is 3 days out. We are still 4.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Things have trended more wintry over the past 24 hours, so no need to open up a new thread to watch it crash and burn...long way out still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 No, what i'm saying is surface temps will likely be colder by several degrees initially which means temps will likely stay subfreezing longer...which will impact freezing rain accumulations. Thanks! That's why I asked the question to get things straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like the look of this. So the thurs system is back? This is what I like!! Forget the Tues system. Hopefully we can get lucky and get both? I forgot my laptop today so I get to be on my phone all day...not good for model watching haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We really need the euro control and UKMET to be correct on getting precip in here early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is usually too amped, could be the case here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago Big questions are how early precip gets in. Flatter/quicker wave means better chance for snow/ice. Meaning Monday pm/night/Tues am. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1m1 minute ago Slower,more amplified would mean during day Tuesday strong coastal front could quickly set up and erode wedge turning precip to rain quicker Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago Also still some potential for 2nd wave Wednesday/Wed night, but all this is still very uncertain, so stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So the thurs system is back? This is what I like!! Forget the Tues system. Hopefully we can get lucky and get both? I forgot my laptop today so I get to be on my phone all day...not good for model watching haha I believe last year in Feb was when he had two systems back to back that gave us the goods. In GSp we got 8 inches of snow. If we can have a repeat, 2015 winter FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We really need the euro control and UKMET to be correct on getting precip in here early.the control sends the low up just west of the apps the miller b's to save the mid Atlantic. would like more of an over running type event like the UK shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We really need the euro control and UKMET to be correct on getting precip in here early. +1000. Earlier is better for everyone. I've pretty much guaranteed my goal of the shutout gets erased so that parts conqured. Now I'm ready to get greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMET has roughly half a foot of snow on the ground across much of NC by 0z Tuesday. Really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Last 4 runs of GFS Ens Mean for 1AM Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This definitely has the feel of a system that precip shoots way out ahead of the system.... probably sooner than modeling indicates. And could wind up with a VIRGA storm overhead before precip begins. Remember though... if the model handles temps and dewpoints throughout the atmospheric column correctly, it *does* account for evaporation. So, any QPF should not be 'lost' due to evaportation, again assuming the model has temps and dewpoints correct. Matt, it looks like almost every model is showing us with high RH numbers almost 18 hours out. Maybe it takes 18 hours to moisten up that airmass but I dunno, maybe the UKMET is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know we've been focusing on the first wave on the UKMET but it looks like wave two is about to pop at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know we've been focusing on the first wave on the UKMET but it looks like wave two is about to pop at 144. There are also several GEFS members that pop a second wave as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know the focus is on the Ukie, GFS, Euro, an Canadian but FWIW the JMA is way north of all the models right now. Might as well throw that in the pile as well. It is usually pulled out every now and then when it shows the goods when others do not. It should at least be noted lol. Temps are horrible as you would guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 i think the most promising thing is that the models are already close to a snowy solution 120hrs out. all winter we have been praying for major trends within 4 days and it seems the models have locked in once they get 96 hrs from an event. hope today has more SE trends then we see the models lock in thru the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know the focus is on the Ukie, GFS, Euro, an Canadian but FWIW the JMA is way north of all the models right now. Might as well throw that in the pile as well. It is usually pulled out every now and then when it shows the goods when others do not. It should at least be noted lol. Temps are horrible as you would guess Models with unfavorable solutions need to be acknowledged. Hopefully in the next day or so they trend to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know the focus is on the Ukie, GFS, Euro, an Canadian but FWIW the JMA is way north of all the models right now. Might as well throw that in the pile as well. It is usually pulled out every now and then when it shows the goods when others do not. It should at least be noted lol. Temps are horrible as you would guess Way north could easily happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Remember the JMA only runs out to range once per day at 12z, so it could show a huge shift in a couple hours. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know the focus is on the Ukie, GFS, Euro, an Canadian but FWIW the JMA is way north of all the models right now. Might as well throw that in the pile as well. It is usually pulled out every now and then when it shows the goods when others do not. It should at least be noted lol. Temps are horrible as you would guess JMA and the NAVGEM have consistently spit out way north solutions. The good thing is we had them on our side with the last potential "event" and we saw how that worked out. Of course, with our luck, they will probably be right this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 JMA and the NAVGEM have consistently spit out way north solutions. The good thing is we had them on our side with the last potential "event" and we saw how that worked out. Of course, with our luck, they will probably be right this time... Yeah very true, if I was forced to choose an two models to show something I don't want... those are the two I choose as their track record is not so great lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just for fun I'm trying to compare the 12z NAM to the 6z GFS. It either looks more amped with the low or its sending it eastward faster (maybe both): 6z GFS - at 90 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=090ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_090_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model 12z NAM - at 84 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just for fun I'm trying to compare the 12z NAM to the 6z GFS. It either looks more amped with the low or its sending it eastward faster (maybe both): The 5h maps are not that far apart, but there is quite a difference in the surface depiction. The weekend system in the NE looks to move out slower on the new nam, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nice to see the NAM coming on board. Really complex set up with multiple areas of high pressure and low(s?) involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 5h maps are not that far apart, but there is quite a difference in the surface depiction. The weekend system in the NE looks to move out slower on the new nam, FWIW. We need a slower system with that sunday event, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We need a slower system with that sunday event, I believe. That's what I was thinking too. The stronger and slower that system is, the better our cold air. On the other hand, we have now started to root for our moisture to move in quicker, so maybe the NE system will slow our storm down too? Do we want the block or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We need a slower system with that sunday event, I believe. I think essentially that's correct. The slower it goes, the longer cold air is in place here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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