Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II

[Shawn]

I think you may take that right now as opposed to ZR. I would much rather have a cold rain than ZR. 

 

Yes, people to my North can keep the ZR and all that fun stuff.  I'd rather miss out on that situation.  I don't really see a way KCAE can get anything but ZR (if it was Wintry) in this first storm situation.

 

In fact, it's still too close by.  Im rooting for the 32F to go a bit further away from here.

[mackerel_sky]

Center of LP starts running up the Apps, reforms NE of Charlotte, and then runs due East off the NC coast.

In-situ wedge FTL! High pressure is out in the Atlantic, it doesn't matter how cold it WAS, no cold feeding into precip

[Marion_NC_WX]

The models are the reason we know the cold is coming. I'm confident that they know how cold this airmass will be better than we do. There doesn't seem to be any reason to believe the models are underestimating the airmass. If anything they have all backed off a touch on the severity they showed earlier this week.

Just to leave no doubt...you are really starting to piss me off right now.

Don't take what I say on here out if context. I never stated in any way that the models were underestimating the cold. What I said was that the models have no clue, in terms of strength, as to how strong ( or in this case, resistant) this airmass is going to be to allowing low pressure just to shoot up and over the top of it.

[griteater]

GFS>CMC>Euro>UKMet

 

That's the order from the 12z runs of most amped / warmest (GFS)...to least amped / coldest (UKMet)

[FallsLake]

In-situ wedge FTL! High pressure is out in the Atlantic, it doesn't matter how cold it WAS, no cold feeding into precip

If it is cold/dry enough (like 25/14) when freezing rain started, it would still take some time to push (latent heat)  the temp up to 33. By that time we could still see some significant icing. This is going to be a very cold/dry air mass initially in place as this system moves in. (I think) I even remember past storms where a secondary break off high establishes itself  to the NE; keeping a NE flow longer than originally modeled( Edit: kind of a hybrid insitu CAD).    

[packfan98]

GFS>CMC>Euro>UKMet

 

That's the order from the 12z runs of most amped / warmest (GFS)...to least amped / coldest (UKMet)

 

That's interesting in that the GFS is usually the least amped of the models.

[SeVa]

It's kind of comical how our cold at 850 just peaces out on the Euro as all the good precip moves in

[LithiaWx]

Just to leave no doubt...you are really starting to piss me off right now.

Don't take what I say on here out if context. I never stated in any way that the models were underestimating the cold. What I said was that the models have no clue, in terms of strength, as to how strong ( or in this case, resistant) this airmass is going to be to allowing low pressure just to shoot up and over the top of it.

 

Keep your chin up Marion and don't let anybody get your feathers ruffled.

 

Meh, I would expect Warm Air Advection to take over in an in-situ CAD setup rather quickly....

[griteater]

UKMet at 144

 

[Cold Rain]

Keep your chin up Marion and don't let anybody get your feathers ruffled.

Meh, I would expect Warm Air Advection to take over in an in-situ CAD setup rather quickly....

I disagree with this. Most of the time, and this is especially true with very strong CAD, the wedge is very difficult to push out and often hangs in much longer than it looks like it will, especially at these leads.

That said, the wedge could be overmodeled here. There are many things that could change that would lead to a warmer, more amped, less wedgy solution.

[LithiaWx]

I disagree with this. Most of the time, and this is especially true with very strong CAD, the wedge is very difficult to push out and often hangs in much longer than it looks like it will, especially at these leads.

That said, the wedge could be overmodeled here. There are many things that could change that would lead to a warmer, more amped, less wedgy solution.

 

in-situ vs. one that I being supplied by a high to the north are two very different animals.

[Cold Rain]

in-situ vs. one that I being supplied by a high to the north are two very different animals.

That's true, but they're both hard to break. I'm not saying that temps won't get above freezing, but the scouring out of the wedge usually isn't an easy thig to accomplish. At this point, there aren't really enough known variables to know what is likely to happen regarding ptypes.

[LithiaWx]

That's true, but they're both hard to break. I'm not saying that temps won't get above freezing, but the scouring out of the wedge usually isn't an easy thig to accomplish. At this point, there aren't really enough known variables to know what is likely to happen regarding ptypes.

 

Agreed sir, lots of possibilities still on the table for the SE.

[Shawn]

Quite sure the UKMET would be quite the storm around parts of SC if correct.

 

 

[griteater]

May come down to how quickly the moisture can eject out east too...get it in early and it would lock in the in-situ wedging for a longer period.

 

Hard to go against the seasonal trend here though of no blocking / more amped / warmer.

[franklin NCwx]

Wish the ukie would update on wxbell. I'm not gonna get excited until the ensembles trend away from a strong cutter.

[tnweathernut]

Wish the ukie would update on wxbell. I'm not gonna get excited until the ensembles trend away from a strong cutter.

I have been looking for that too. When do they update typically?  

I am also interested in the euro ensembles.  Hoping they show less wound up and west solutions and more weak and suppressed overrunning solutions.

[franklin NCwx]

Thought by 2

[Shawn]

Well, just glancing over the GEFS plumes... We went from 5 or 6 to 12/21 members in KCAE with Winter weather.

 

In other words, something is brewing for someone in the SE.  12 are the most members of the GEFS I have seen all season with Winter weather into KCAE. 

[griteater]

The models are showing the moisture from the baja low coming out with this system.  Also, as seen here with the Euro, that's a pretty good thump of SW winds at 850mb (left side image) being thrown into 850 0 deg temps in NC at 144 (overrunning).  Precip should be there in that setup.  Biggest key here is keeping the heights along the east coast from rising too much in the Sun-Tues timeframe.  The stronger and slower the Sunday Boston storm, the better.

 

[mrdaddyman]

 

The models are showing the moisture from the baja low coming out with this system.  Also, as seen here with the Euro, that's a pretty good thump of SW winds at 850mb (left side image) being thrown into 850 0 deg temps in NC at 144 (overrunning).  Precip should be there in that setup.  Biggest key here is keeping the heights along the east coast from rising too much in the Sun-Tues timeframe.  The stronger and slower the Sunday Boston storm, the better.

 

Thanks for the info. I was wondering how the storm in the NE would affect our possible storm.

[franklin NCwx]

The models are showing the moisture from the baja low coming out with this system. Also, as seen here with the Euro, that's a pretty good thump of SW winds at 850mb (left side image) being thrown into 850 0 deg temps in NC at 144 (overrunning). Precip should be there in that setup. Biggest key here is keeping the heights along the east coast from rising too much in the Sun-Tues timeframe. The stronger and slower the Sunday Boston storm, the better.

good post, I agree. the more confluence that we have up there the better. A block would be great right now.

[UNCCmetgrad]

While I'm waiting for the UKMET to update on WXbell which it may not. They now have precip types from the GGEM.

UUUGGHH...This is NOT getting my thesis done!!!

 

[griteater]

Just watching the Euro Ens mean come in and it looks like it should be a touch more suppressed than its 00z run based on 500mb...so in line with the trend from the Op run

[Upstate Tiger]

KGSP taking a wait and see approach like the rest of us:

 

THE
PROBLEMS BEGIN IN EARNEST LATE MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS...AND FORCING SPREADS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SW IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
TO OUR N. THE CONSENSUS OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IS THAT PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SW ACROSS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS AND NE GEORGIA BEFORE SUNRISE...AND THEN THE REST OF
THE FCST AREA BY NOON TUESDAY. AS THESE DEVELOPMENTS HAPPEN...A
RELATIVELY COOL BUT RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. THAT WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR AN IN-SITU WEDGE TO
DEVELOP WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE THREAT
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR NOW...BASED ON
THE GUIDANCE...IS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW AND THEN A SHORT
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS. WILL STAY CONSISTENT
WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE THE WINTRY MIX. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING SMEARS THIS OUT IN THE FCST PROCESS...SO THE FCST
MIGHT LOOK MORE DIRE THAN IT ACTUALLY WILL BE. FREEZING RAIN EVENTS
BECOME MORE RARE AS WE GET INTO MID/LATE FEBRUARY...SO THE MOST
LIKELY TREND WILL BE FOR WARM ADVECTION TO WIN OUT AND LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF ANY WINTRY MIX. THE TREND IN THE GFS IS TO MOVE THE
PRIMARY LOW W OF THE MTNS...WHICH SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CHANGING
ALL PRECIP OVER TO RAIN ON TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP PROBABILITY
LIMITED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. THINGS GET COMPLICATED AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE MTNS BEFORE THE MID LEVEL COOL AIR ARRIVES...WHICH
GIVES THE MTNS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN. THE MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ARRIVES IN SHORT ORDER SO PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...WE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE WE HAVE SOME
STRONG SHEAR. THAT COULD SPELL SOME CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE COLD AIR FOLLOWS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
GREAT...SO DO NOT PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN THE WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL
JUST YET.

 

[franklin NCwx]

ensemble is coming south less amped. it's a huge hit for all of Kentucky and West Virginia. even has up to a 6 inch bullseye here in southwest North Carolina

[packfan98]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  37s38 seconds ago

Time to get behind the people that will be fighting in the coming weeks to keep roads open.. Deep south wont be immune either

[buckeyefan1]

CAE    

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL SLIDE
AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHING ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERTAKING THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDING TO THE COLD WILL BE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S
COMBINING WITH THE STRONG WINDS THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND
CHILL READINGS TO APPROACH 5 DEGREES...WHICH IS WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. THE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EASTWARD
SPREADING CLOUDINESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS INDICATE
POPS NEAR 40 PERCENT. MODELS HAVE TAKEN THE EXPECTED TRACK A BIT
FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

[SnowNiner]

KGSP taking a wait and see approach like the rest of us:

 

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR NOW...BASED ON

THE GUIDANCE...IS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW AND THEN A SHORT

PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS. WILL STAY CONSISTENT

WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCLUDE THE WINTRY MIX. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY

IN THE TIMING SMEARS THIS OUT IN THE FCST PROCESS...SO THE FCST

MIGHT LOOK MORE DIRE THAN IT ACTUALLY WILL BE. FREEZING RAIN EVENTS

BECOME MORE RARE AS WE GET INTO MID/LATE FEBRUARY...SO THE MOST

LIKELY TREND WILL BE FOR WARM ADVECTION TO WIN OUT AND LIMIT THE

AMOUNT OF ANY WINTRY MIX.

 

I agree with their assesment.  Bit of mix in the beginning and transitions quickly

 

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  37s38 seconds ago

Time to get behind the people that will be fighting in the coming weeks to keep roads open.. Deep south wont be immune either

 

 

lol, now you know it's dead. 

[packbacker]

Just watching the Euro Ens mean come in and it looks like it should be a touch more suppressed than its 00z run based on 500mb...so in line with the trend from the Op run

ensemble is coming south less amped. it's a huge hit for all of Kentucky and West Virginia. even has up to a 6 inch bullseye here in southwest North Carolina

Well one change on the EPS is a solid -AO popping day 5-7. The EPS has been hinting at it the past few runs. That would be an interesting development. Instead of just the ridge to Siberia it actually shows blocking over the top.

I wonder if it registered as a -AO though.