PhineasC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 17 wasn't on wxbell for some reason.. 18 running now. this was 16: Moving around a bit.. still not great for you and me.. tho I think if there is any tendancy at range with the short term models it's that they bend south with precip as they close. I like the look of it on radar at the moment too. Tricky.. unless assume suck I guess. Damn that radar looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 17 wasn't on wxbell for some reason.. 18 running now. this was 16: Moving around a bit.. still not great for you and me.. tho I think if there is any tendancy at range with the short term models it's that they bend south with precip as they close. I like the look of it on radar at the moment too. Tricky.. unless assume suck I guess. I've been watching the rap/h-triple-r as well. If they have the right idea (which I don't know which way to lean) then the euro will have completely blown the front running precip. It may mean nothing or it may mean things are going to develop further south than the euro. Time will tell. To early to over analyze redevelopment but it would definitely kinda tick me off if we whiff the front the vort is much deeper than when we had an "easy" look for snow. Sucks that the primary kinda floats around because of this and tracks into WV instead of across southern VA. Every mile south on the primary counts right now. ETA: eh, comparing the 16z to 18z rap, the eastward extent of precip has moved westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Euro over amps the whole thing. This drives the lift from the primary up into pa. Then it over amps the coastal which steals the moisture from our norlun trough. That leads to the crappy solution. It also fits its bias so there is a chance gfs wins on those features. Just have to wait and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Bob, any time I use past 6-8 hrs on the RAP I get burned, do you ever find it useful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Set the over/under at DCA at 1" yesterday. Think I was optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 18z NAM has a band from about hrs 22-28 that sits along I-95 and DC before it would appear, snowing itself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM sticking with the idea of a non-event here in the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Set the over/under at DCA at 1" yesterday. Think I was optimistic. I take the over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 18z NAM has a band from about hrs 22-28 that sits along I-95 and DC before it would appear, snowing itself out With surface temps in the mid-30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NAM sticking with the idea of a non-event here in the metro areas. Huh? NAM is 30 hours of precip in the area. A good bit of that snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Huh? NAM is 30 hours of precip in the area. A good bit of that snow.Looked good to me..I am close that blue QPF total...and I didn't get much from the last clipper so I am happy with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 UKMet is not good for us, barely an inch. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/559440981959770112 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Huh? NAM is 30 hours of precip in the area. A good bit of that snow. you're about 50-60 miles west of dc, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nam looks great, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sterling just majorly cut their forecast: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Looks like the beltway would be lucky to see a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREFs are bleh... 2 for BWI, 1 for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Slow motion train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREFs are bleh... 2 for BWI, 1 for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sterling just majorly cut their forecast: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Looks like the beltway would be lucky to see a couple of inches. No surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sterling just majorly cut their forecast: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Looks like the beltway would be lucky to see a couple of inches. I especially like the "2-3" right over top of the District's 1" forecast. Please give whichever elephant drew this map with their trunk a peanut. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This trend of storms looking good 2 or 3 days before only to get progressively worse as the start nears is killing me. This one is all over but the crying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 UKMet is not good for us, barely an inch. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/559440981959770112 Looks awesome for Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm expecting to see the sun tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This trend of storms looking good 2 or 3 days before only to get progressively worse as the start nears is killing me. This one is all over but the crying. This trend of storms looking good 2 or 3 days before only to get progressively worse as the start nears is killing me. This one is all over but the crying. yet you follow ad nauseun!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 oh hai der RGEM at 36 hrs -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Slow motion train wreck We've been off the rails for a while now. Some just liked to note that the train was still upright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 oh hai der RGEM at 36 hrs -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3294_100.gif how can you even read the B&W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Seeing the 40N NWS discussions, with the tears running down my cheeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Seeing the 40N NWS discussions, with the tears running down my cheeks They (in the Northeast) will be making History over the next few days. If Leesburg 04 did go to NYC - he too will be living history. The Northeast and SNE along with NYC will be totally annihilated by this unbelievable storm. Its not just the ridiculous amts of severely heavy snow in the Northeast, its the unbelievable WINDS. I'd KILL for a chance to go to NYC over the next few days. Chance of a lifetime! Chance of TEN lifetimes! The way that Leesburg 04 has stated that he has been getting fringed the last few years - it has been in his sig - it is amazing that he even has to THINK about going! This is like Rocky Balboa in the 2nd or 3rd Rocky installment going up to Mickey and saying that he does not know what to do! Mickey straightened him up: "You dont know what to do? You should be ASHAMED of yourself! Now go out there and do what you gotta do!" Or something to that effect, I may have paraphrased what Mickey said to Rocky. Get up there, Leesburg 04! You're a snow enthusiast! All these years of cryin' about getting fringed! Chances like this come about only once in a lifetime! New York as about to be totally annihilated by snow and shrieking wind gusts and 55 dbZ snows! Now you already have a hotel reservation there! Get up there will ya! Get pics! Get video! Get it all on American Wx Forums or it never even happened! You go up there you wont be fringed! You'll be destroyed! It's high time you represent! Snow drifts will be over your head! You are going to have to hold on to buildings to keep from being literally blown away by insane wind gusts! You're about to be blinded by crazy dbZ snow rates! Ever seen snowflakes over an inch in diameter falling heavily and blasted along by tropical storm force winds? You'll get to personally experience a total blizzard! You'll get to walk into drifts that may mount over ten feet in the lee of those big buildings! Man if I had this opportunity, I would not miss it for anything! Get up there already! You want snow! This is your big chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This is just Dec 2010 and Dec 2000 all over again. Honestly I think even Philly get hosed with this. I am betting the NAM is pretty close to being right. Go 20 miles away from the shore and your totals drop off. I don't even think Northeast Maryland/Delaware sees much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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