CAPE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion from this afternoon is a pretty darn interesting read(and kinda funny if you aren't a NWS met trying to forecast this event). Not gonna copy it here as everyone knows where to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Rain and 43 here... maybe getting showers early will help the column cool a bit for the big show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NYC is calling for the all time snow record implicitly by their forecast. Not sure why at this range.. imagine if the Euro is showing some of its bias and deflates a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How can you not lol and cry all at once And the fact that a little over a day ago we were pretty much locked into the bullseye of a nice, cold, moderate snowfall makes it that much more difficult. We suck at snow a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Precip just started... All rain now but its close. Expect a change over in an hour or two. 48 degrees Catonsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 According to the GFS, I'm in the blues for about 9 hours, 7 of which is probably snow. This is where we were on Thursday. I'll take my 2-4 and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I seem to have reached the "acceptance" stage of my grieving. Hope we see some snow at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 rain and mangled flakes tonight, followed by occasional 34F flurries tomorrow. Somebody wake me when this winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Does anyone have any thoughts on how much slower the "clipper" moved today compared to this morning's guidance? It looks like it's still back in western KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hopefully the website is starting to speed up now. It really is hard to believe that at short range we went from a MA cold powder special to a SNE HECS where we probably get shafted. I don't think I can look at Miller Bs the same anymore. I didn't know this is what they did to y'all when I was in NE. I think this is an extreme case (esp Euro scenario) but yeah, perfect example of why we aren't very fond of Miller Bs in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I seem to have reached the "acceptance" stage of my grieving. Hope we see some snow at some point. I moved to the alcohol stage. Depression tomorrow and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hopefully the website is starting to speed up now. It really is hard to believe that at short range we went from a MA cold powder special to a SNE HECS where we probably get shafted. I don't think I can look at Miller Bs the same anymore. I didn't know this is what they did to y'all when I was in NE." We wanted it to go south...and it did, and it became more powerful than we wanted it too. "Be careful what you wish for." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How can you not lol and cry all at once imagine being those that are too far inland in ny and new england. that cutoff to the west is tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hopefully the website is starting to speed up now. It really is hard to believe that at short range we went from a MA cold powder special to a SNE HECS where we probably get shafted. I don't think I can look at Miller Bs the same anymore. I didn't know this is what they did to y'all when I was in NE. Bingo. The hardest part for me is that we were bullseyed for a DC-Baltimore cold powder mega-clipper less than 48 hours ago. Now were begging for a pity inch or two while 150 miles away will be getting raked. Welcome to Miller Bs in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 All that moisture, rain, just to DC's north... would have been nice to have that about 50 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 And the fact that a little over a day ago we were pretty much locked into the bullseye of a nice, cold, moderate snowfall makes it that much more difficult. We suck at snow a whole lot. isn't that still a moderate snow for a lot of northern md? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 My point and click just went up to 6-9. I really dont know what they are looking at with those numbers. They are just way out in left field. Honestly, I don't think I see even 1 inch here. I'd be shocked if I got 2. We are going to waste the bulk of the precip tonight, and nothing is sticking during daylight hours tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Precip just started... All rain now but its close. Expect a change over in an hour or two. 48 degrees Catonsville. You might want to add another 6 hours or so on your expected changeover time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Hopefully the website is starting to speed up now. It really is hard to believe that at short range we went from a MA cold powder special to a SNE HECS where we probably get shafted. I don't think I can look at Miller Bs the same anymore. I didn't know this is what they did to y'all when I was in NE. Like I said, you will always remember your first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Half day drive....speed up grandma....king bed six pillows and free breakfast...come on up Those aren't pillows!!! on topic: those NWS snow maps make me cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 isn't that still a moderate snow for a lot of northern md? 4" was my bar ever since it was a small DC clipper and it's still my bar today. I'm a little skeptical based on past storms and can easily see this being a bust. Hopefully Philly won't get 20"+ if we are completely skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 You might want to add another 6 hours or so on your expected changeover time. So much for dynamic cooling... I only dropped one degree since the onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 isn't that still a moderate snow for a lot of northern md?1) We were bullseyed, and now we're begging for scraps2) I couldn't give two sh**s about northern Maryland if it's not snowing in my back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Light rain starting north of Westminster, temp at 37.6 and dropping. +20 DBZ returns inbound and expect to turn to sleet or snow soon. Reports of sleet about 10 miles to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 2) I couldn't give two sh**s about northern Maryland if it's not snowing in my back yard Too bad... this subforum isn't just the immediate DC metro. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 4" was my bar ever since it was a small DC clipper and it's still my bar today. I'm a little skeptical based on past storms and can easily see this being a bust. Hopefully Philly won't get 20"+ if we are completely skunked. I don't know nothing about nothing but the evolution on the models seem odd. They show the dryslot clearing NYC and then all the sudden bands backing down into Delmarva... The bust potential is so high in Philly.... This would be their boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 1) We were bullseyed, and now we're begging for scraps 2) I couldn't give two sh**s about northern Maryland if it's not snowing in my back yard we were bullseyed 2-3 days out. putting your hopes on that is a recipe for a letdown. i don't think this was ever modeled to be a big storm for us even when we were in the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Light rain starting north of Westminster, temp at 37.6 and dropping. +20 DBZ returns inbound and expect to turn to sleet or snow soon. Reports of sleet about 10 miles to the west. Thanks for that ob... There is another thread for that but it is comforting to hear about sleet out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 We did talk about this right from the beginning. Phase jobs, Miller Bs(Note the BS) rarely give DC big snows. We do get the brush by the clipper, some will be wasted in rain, the low blows up on the coast but only blesses Dover, northeast Maryland and points nne of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 39 with drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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