aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 even if I told you that around .15" of the qpf falls as rain or white rain? Yes because .37 falls as white love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krasnyoktyabr Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 its mostly very light. At this point I'm just happy to have what the HRRR is showing. A nice 2-3 inches area wide is what we all said we'd be happy with for the clipper, and those totals are just running through midday tomorrow. The 2m and 925 temps are definitely marginal, but the 850s are quite cold. Hopefully we can get a surprise and cool down faster than expected. At this point I'm just happy to not be looking at a map that says zero inc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Late panels of HRRR have a good look, IMO. Looks like the coastal is cranking pretty far south and precip is building across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmjokers Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That is just the precip type chart. The sim radar is not encouraging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 00z RGEM at 12 hrs (looks like 3mm or so) -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/511_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That is just the precip type chart. The sim radar is not encouraging... There does seem to be a better trend for ... nvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 24 on 00z RGEM -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 from LWX's Facebook page: US National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Where heavier snow bands develop, there will be 6-10 inches of snow. Outside of heavier bands, expect 2-5 inches of snow. The best chance for heavier bands is west of the Blue Ridge Mountains and north of Interstate 66. Obviously I hope they are right. But it would be nice to see 6-10 on some kind of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 from LWX's Facebook page: https://fbcdn-profile-a.akamaihd.net/hprofile-ak-xfa1/v/t1.0-1/c2.2.29.29/p34x34/311328_209863705747120_1484843296_n.jpg?oh=1f448ddbe7d83b779311453b7e2500e1&oe=55669F14 __gda__=1432091204_25d9722f869b70cc9ecb1e47cf495689 US National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Where heavier snow bands develop, there will be 6-10 inches of snow. Outside of heavier bands, expect 2-5 inches of snow. The best chance for heavier bands is west of the Blue Ridge Mountainsand north of Interstate 66. Will is a word never to use when it comes to future snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 late panels of the 2Z HRRR look interesting on sim radar #weenietalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Mini deathband on the RGEM tomorrow night. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015012600/I_nw_r1_EST_2015012600_028.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RGEM looks similar to 18z, but it slows down the first wave and shifts the surface low to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If wundermap is to be believed (and it appears accurate based on obs) the front is south of Baltimore now. Most reporting stations north of the city are now back into the 30s with a wind out of the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Obviously I hope they are right. But it would be nice to see 6-10 on some kind of guidance. I'm still scratching my head trying to figure out how heavy bands would develop out here from a dying low transferring to a coastal that is too far east and too late to help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Here is a link to the accumulation from the precip type map I posted earlier. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runtime=2015012601&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 ~1" in and around D.C. from the HRRR range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I expect the euro will look different than the american models...lol The western burbs could do ok tomorrow morning if the initial slug really generates some momentum...once we hit midday we probably all lull or semi-lull and warm...2nd round is still interesting, esp for western burbs..I imagine the euro will be more wrapped up and more coastal influence here...not sure what that will mean for afternoon/evening enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like the front hasn't quite reached Annapolis yet, still seeing SE winds 2-3mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I expect the euro will look different than the american models...lol The western burbs could do ok tomorrow morning if the initial slug really generates some momentum...once we hit midday we probably all lull or semi-lull and warm...2nd round is still interesting, esp for western burbs..I imagine the euro will be more wrapped up and more coastal influence here...not sure what that will mean for afternoon/evening enhancement I am wondering how far west we can get the coastal influence... some bands would be nice to see. The EURO will probably pique our interest IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM and RGEM now in broad agreement about where the dry slot is going to be, just a slight disagreement about how dry it will be. RGEM is wetter than the NAM but drier than its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Seems to have gone north here. I'm 7 miles west of Annapolis. Don't forget about the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM and RGEM now in broad agreement about where the dry slot is going to be, just a slight disagreement about how dry it will be. RGEM is wetter than the NAM but drier than its previous runs. The dry slot is just dry... It is where the precip ends/ cuts off. It is never wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 very light snow into nova at h24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS seems fine to me... some snow accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 gfs looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I can't even get to the amwx model suite. I'm stuck on NCEP. I'm so agitated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 gfs crushjob on snow wanters through h33...nada What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'd happily take GFS - maybe 2-3" from the backend coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Precip wise GFS is .5 or more area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 gfs has a ton of qpf in central and nva and bwi is didly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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