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November 2014 Banter


Kay

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I'm going to Williamsburg for a few days myself the end of the week and am hoping to see a few flakes Thurs. night/Fri. morning

I'm down there through Thanksgiving, wonk hope the pattern relaxes a little so it warms up a bit while I'm there. I missed the 6" cold event last year (late January?) when I was down there, so I wouldn't be surprised if I missed one again this year.

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That good, huh? Looked like a nice setup but I wondered if warm air would get pulled in aloft.

850's were -5 to -7 @ 240 and snow coming down hard with surface temps in the 20's. A transfer from TN to SC would likely have ended up with a sub 990 off of OBX. Areas of sw va already had nearly a foot on the ground by 240 and it was all aimed at us. My extrapolation would have been 18-30" through the region with limited mixing 95 and west.

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Ah, the annual 'how do you like your snow?' debate

 

If you promise me 30" right now (16.5" less than last year, but I'd gladly take it) I would want it in the following way:

 

1 10" storm

1 6" storm

1 4" storm

5 2" storms

 

I like a good distribution of winter weather throughout the season with some higher end storms thrown in. Climo says we only jackpot on monster storms once or twice each decade, so I don't get my hopes up for one of those. The above gives me 8 events Dec-Feb, which is very good for MBY. 

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oh no!  Both Howard Bernstein (DC TV-9) and NWS are threatening flakes for TH-F and Sun-Mon!  Time to find my flame-thrower and try to defend DCA!  :gun_bandana:

 

snips from the latest AFD:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014

(snip)
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
(snip)

SOME AREAS OF THE WRN VLYS WILL POKE INTO THE L70S...WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MODERATED.

(snip)

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
(snip)

 

. LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PLUME SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RAISED CHANCE POPS FOR SRN MD ONLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE... THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING. NWLY FLOW ALLOWS SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 20S...TEENS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND LOW 30S NEAR SHORE. (snip) THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN EAST/LOWER ELEVATION AND SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY.
 
(snip)
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Didn't get a chance to post this yesterday, but NWS Blacksburg appeared to cover 'all the bases' with the extended.........

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...

DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS HIGH
CENTER BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
QUITE COLD FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S
IN THE PIEDMONT. PLAYED HIGHS SATURDAY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 490S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO
THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOME SOUTHWEST...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE TO LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTING IT. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES WITH TIME WITH DETAILS BECOMING MORE CLEARLY AS WE
APPROACH THE DATE.

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Didn't get a chance to post this yesterday, but NWS Blacksburg appeared to cover 'all the bases' with the extended.........

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...

DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS HIGH

CENTER BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE

QUITE COLD FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S

IN THE PIEDMONT. PLAYED HIGHS SATURDAY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE

NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 490S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGH

SLIDES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO

THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS

THE UPPER FLOW BECOME SOUTHWEST...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FROM THE

UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT

WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION

CHANCES INCREASE TO LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...WITH BOTH

GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTING IT. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM

EVOLVES WITH TIME WITH DETAILS BECOMING MORE CLEARLY AS WE

APPROACH THE DATE.

Kinda warm in the piedmont.

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Bethesdawx (sp) was a former poster that used to talk about how the trash can lids and grill covers were blowing around all over the place. It was funny at times and I'm sure I missed or glanced over the really bad stuff, but he was eventually banned. He's back under the name 'StudentofClimatology'. Again, I'm sure I've missed or glanced over the recent stuff, but I haven't read anything crazy from him in recent months. 

I don't even know who that is.

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