mitchnick Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I leave for South Carolina next Thursday before dawn. Will I be able to get out of town with all the snow? Should I just plan to leave on Friday instead? I'm going to Williamsburg for a few days myself the end of the week and am hoping to see a few flakes Thurs. night/Fri. morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I would trade all of Dec and part of Jan if hrs 246-252 on today's 12z euro verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I would trade all of Dec and part of Jan if hrs 246-252 on today's 12z euro verified. I want 40 2" snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I would trade all of Dec and part of Jan if hrs 246-252 on today's 12z euro verified. That good, huh? Looked like a nice setup but I wondered if warm air would get pulled in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I'm going to Williamsburg for a few days myself the end of the week and am hoping to see a few flakes Thurs. night/Fri. morning I'm down there through Thanksgiving, wonk hope the pattern relaxes a little so it warms up a bit while I'm there. I missed the 6" cold event last year (late January?) when I was down there, so I wouldn't be surprised if I missed one again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 That good, huh? Looked like a nice setup but I wondered if warm air would get pulled in aloft. 850's were -5 to -7 @ 240 and snow coming down hard with surface temps in the 20's. A transfer from TN to SC would likely have ended up with a sub 990 off of OBX. Areas of sw va already had nearly a foot on the ground by 240 and it was all aimed at us. My extrapolation would have been 18-30" through the region with limited mixing 95 and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I want 40 2" snows I want 2 40" snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 If it hits 70 tomorrow at DCA I'm canceling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Ah, the annual 'how do you like your snow?' debate If you promise me 30" right now (16.5" less than last year, but I'd gladly take it) I would want it in the following way: 1 10" storm 1 6" storm 1 4" storm 5 2" storms I like a good distribution of winter weather throughout the season with some higher end storms thrown in. Climo says we only jackpot on monster storms once or twice each decade, so I don't get my hopes up for one of those. The above gives me 8 events Dec-Feb, which is very good for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 You know winter is back when you have icez always posting about the sick pattern 7-10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 We're not quite back in full form yet. No Euro play by play. 0z Op: Cold rain followed by more cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS getting warm around Thanksgiving...be ready...slow fade begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Phineas is gonna have to cook his turkey in shorts and a wife beater with the windows open...heck he might as well just grill outside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS getting warm around Thanksgiving...be ready...slow fade begins Turkey summer. Pools reopen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 oh no! Both Howard Bernstein (DC TV-9) and NWS are threatening flakes for TH-F and Sun-Mon! Time to find my flame-thrower and try to defend DCA! snips from the latest AFD: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC357 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014(snip)&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...(snip) SOME AREAS OF THE WRN VLYS WILL POKE INTO THE L70S...WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MODERATED. (snip).LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...(snip) . LLVL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PLUME SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RAISED CHANCE POPS FOR SRN MD ONLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE... THEN CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING. NWLY FLOW ALLOWS SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 20S...TEENS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS AND LOW 30S NEAR SHORE. (snip) THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN EAST/LOWER ELEVATION AND SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY. (snip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS getting warm around Thanksgiving...be ready...slow fade begins Are we canceling again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Today is the day someone on the board somewhere says that "the models are not 'seeing' the cold" correctly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS getting warm around Thanksgiving...be ready...slow fade beginsit was fun.. Time for flowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Start of my day: Mutant conjoined coffee filters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 I've dubbed it the CFO (Coffee Filter Oscillation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I've dubbed it the CFO (Coffee Filter Oscillation) We need more of you and less of Bethesda Boy posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 We need more of you and less of Bethesda Boy posting. this x infinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Didn't get a chance to post this yesterday, but NWS Blacksburg appeared to cover 'all the bases' with the extended......... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS HIGHCENTER BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEQUITE COLD FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20SIN THE PIEDMONT. PLAYED HIGHS SATURDAY FROM THE MID 30S IN THENORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 490S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGHSLIDES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNSSATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TOTHE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. ASTHE UPPER FLOW BECOME SOUTHWEST...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FROM THEUPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONTWILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATIONCHANCES INCREASE TO LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...WITH BOTHGFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTING IT. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEMEVOLVES WITH TIME WITH DETAILS BECOMING MORE CLEARLY AS WEAPPROACH THE DATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Didn't get a chance to post this yesterday, but NWS Blacksburg appeared to cover 'all the bases' with the extended......... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST MONDAY... DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS HIGH CENTER BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT. PLAYED HIGHS SATURDAY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 490S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOME SOUTHWEST...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTING IT. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITH TIME WITH DETAILS BECOMING MORE CLEARLY AS WE APPROACH THE DATE. Kinda warm in the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Bethesdawx (sp) was a former poster that used to talk about how the trash can lids and grill covers were blowing around all over the place. It was funny at times and I'm sure I missed or glanced over the really bad stuff, but he was eventually banned. He's back under the name 'StudentofClimatology'. Again, I'm sure I've missed or glanced over the recent stuff, but I haven't read anything crazy from him in recent months. I don't even know who that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 12z GFS snow maps are fun to look at for next Friday (11/21) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Well thanks...I don't feel like much of a value-adder (I read up on stuff and peer at models but still better off reading vs. commenting for everyone's sake) but happy to keep up the supply of obs, banter, and general absurdity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 12z GFS snow maps are fun to look at for next Friday (11/21) Made me look.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 By the way, it is officially "winter" for me, as my first move this morning was to look at the forum and feel disappointment that there was not a volume of posts overnight - meaning that the Euro had offered no love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I'm banning the term "Snow TV" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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