Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Holy 20 inch megabomb and the mm5 can be underdone on spatial distribution of QPF AWT?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yep, looks like BOX give you a little bit more but seems reasonable to me. GYX gives me 8-12" and that's what I was thinking too. I am still holding out some hope for things to get NAM juicy or better up here, but that's probably wishful thinking. This is a hard call with the sharp drop in qpf heading north I think, small change could mean much more.. At least it seems like 6"+ is pretty much locked. judging by history of the past 3-4 years, we will either get 8" or 11". nothing in between lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 All I am saying is both camps have credibility , the MM5 fits my thinking , pretty locked in now Got it I agree. Just cannot discount anything at this stage and like you said even when we have a final solution tonight with the 0z, there will be wobbles as the whole thing gets rolling, banding etc. With the UK/GFS east and the NAM/RGEM west...knowing the easties have tooled the NAM at 500 24-48 hours out...and that the euro has schooled them all....whatever it says is the only logical way to roll until trends become more apparent at 18z/0z. This is a role reversal for me on the EC - it still gives me a lot of rain. But it's hard to argue the 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Noyes is right, I have some oe clouds coming in from the east. What is that an indication of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Interesting tweet from Matt Noyes "Interesting Boston area low clouds not directly w/storm but important. Rapid blossom indicates strong instability" He's big into the precursor signs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GFS is so far East I get 10". The NAM is NOW so far West I get 1" of Rain and then 8" of snow. Why is NoBody talking about these problems?? Everyone seems tlo think that 12-20" is a lock.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is that an indication of? Well I don't think it's anything more than ocean effect clouds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What is that an indication of? Heavy heavy porn, get naked dude. LOL East flow around unstable air mass waiting for the match to trigger the detonation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the ARW did the best job with the last storm in terms of QPF, showing .75 in the hole in CT where 6-10 verified. I can't wait to see it when the 12z comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What site do you guys typically use for radar imagery? i got the 14 day free trial from weathertap just for this storm.. but I do love the graphics and radars so I will probably keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 He's big into the precursor signs... Speaking of precursor signs... pretty interesting visible loop going on right now off the Carolina coast....talk about vorticity. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&isingle=multiple&itype=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 He's big into the precursor signs... As I am, when clouds rolled in this AM at 15 degrees, antecedent conditions are priming, Jerrys favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well I don't think it's anything more than ocean effect clouds right now. do you think we can get some OES bands move in way ahead of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 By the looks of it, BDL should report a total in the 40's in this storm And 6.5 on Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Speaking of precursor signs... pretty interesting visible loop going on right now off the Carolina coast....talk about vorticity. http://aviationweath...tiple&itype=vis wow beautiful pic, reminds me of the vis that sat underneath li in feb 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can someone decipher the MM5 for me imby at TAN? I'm too busy to rifle through all the maps. Quick glance, it looks pretty damn sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Clobbered 1 word post that is a War and Peace novel coming from you. Can you write our AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the banded nature of the precipitation in NC and the Delmarva is pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the banded nature of the precipitation in NC and the Delmarva is pretty interesting. Oh no...not that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The Pioneer Valley snow forcefield lives on. Yeah, saw that. Not sure what's going on there but we saw the MM5 do that with the blizzard and it turned out to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know a bunch of the mets think ensembles become useless at this point, but 12z GEFS is just SE of ACK not to mention, much higher QPF than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Lots of moderate to heavy snow obs coming out of Ohio with that upper air system. That's almost always a good sign...especially when they weren't modeled to get all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 do you think we can get some OES bands move in way ahead of the storm? Some models gave a little oes before it came in, so yeah a little -sn is possible tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can someone decipher the MM5 for me imby at TAN? I'm too busy to rifle through all the maps. Quick glance, it looks pretty damn sweet. Thats all you need........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh no...not that again. lol I don't think it's even important. It's not related to bombing or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i got the 14 day free trial from weathertap just for this storm.. but I do love the graphics and radars so I will probably keep it. Excellent. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd hit that until I chafe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here's the GEFS...it's supporting the OP pretty hardcore now with the apparent shift towards a litte later close off, which is great news for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 As I am, when clouds rolled in this AM at 15 degrees, antecedent conditions are priming, Jerrys favorite. Yup. 18.1/11 in GC at the moment wiht thickening clouds. Beginning to look and feel that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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