moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 a slight left tick on the QPF field on the GFS. 0.75" close to the NY/CT border whereas it was in central CT before. 1.0" line to about the CT river where it just scraped extreme SE New London county at 6z. Yeah--the qpf is clearly more generous than the 00z run. ALY is/was riding the GFS in their a.m. AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well AWT it came west..but still not enough. So i guess it waits till 18z to finally figure out what the hell is going on..What a piece of ****e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So I either get 18 inches or 8 based on 12Z NAM and GFS...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If that verifies...oh my goodness haha. I would go insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nothing's verified just yet....but, sufficed it is to say, should this go that way it really was not hard to see coming Exactly. I hope you're right, I think this would be one of the most fascinating storms in ages around here if the NAM/RGEM are right. But when I see them doing the same thing they did with two different s/w up here just in the last week I have to think they're potentially at it again. Meanwhile the GFS shifts west some, so a good compromise is in order hopefully in the form of the Euro. I've got to ask you because you would be the one to explain it - is it possible the convective nature of precip off of NJ is in fact causing the NAM to spin up the uber vorticity? This seems to be what happened the other day and gradually as each run passed inside of about 24-30 hours it slowed the development of the vorticity bomb and things shifted just slighty each run east. It did this for sure the other day, are we certain that's not what's happening this time? wow.. GFS does not want to budge.. But it did. The GFS is coming around to a better hit in time, more QPF etc. It just won't develop the black hole that the NAM/RGEM are east of NJ. It's either a feedback issue on the NAM/RGEM or insufficient resolution/factors Tip mentioned on the globals. It's that simple. Garbage in, garbage out... Kind of a ridiculous statement given performance of both models in the last week. I know you're excited but I believe the NAM works off the GFS first guess field for some data, so it isn't quite what you'd think. GFS looks just nw of the BM and then bombs east of the elbow. Yes, how does it compare to the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The heavy precip on the GFS should be shifted further northwest IMO...even with the low tracking further southeast than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 well at least the precipitation shield has improved on the GFS, I like that trend.. based on that I am going with 12-18" for my area... hoping for more but will take it.. fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So I either get 18 inches or 8 based on 12Z NAM and GFS...nice you get 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So I either get 18 inches or 8 based on 12Z NAM and GFS...nice difference of 25" to 10" for me. I'll settle for a compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well AWT it came west..but still not enough. So i guess it waits till 18z to finally figure out what the hell is going on..What a piece of ****e Nice to see it beef up QPF amounts though, and by quite a bit for eastern sections. GFS coming around towards the other models...AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 AccuCrap map: (not bad for southeastern sections) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly. I hope you're right, I think this would be one of the most fascinating storms in ages around here if the NAM/RGEM are right. But when I see them doing the same thing they did with two different s/w up here just in the last week I have to think they're potentially at it again. Meanwhile the GFS shifts west some, so a good compromise is in order hopefully in the form of the Euro. I've got to ask you because you would be the one to explain it - is it possible the convective nature of precip off of NJ is in fact causing the NAM to spin up the uber vorticity? This seems to be what happened the other day and gradually as each run passed inside of about 24-30 hours it slowed the development of the vorticity bomb and things shifted just slighty each run east. It did this for sure the other day, are we certain that's not what's happening this time? But it did. The GFS is coming around to a better hit in time, more QPF etc. It just won't develop the black hole that the NAM/RGEM are east of NJ. It's either a feedback issue on the NAM/RGEM or insufficient resolution/factors Tip mentioned on the globals. It's that simple. Kind of a ridiculous statement given performance of both models in the last week. I know you're excited but I believe the NAM works off the GFS first guess field for some data, so it isn't quite what you'd think. Yes, how does it compare to the euro? MM5, NAM HRRR , high res time Mess. it is why they were developed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just in from ALY: FYI...THE 12Z NAM CAME IN TRACKING THE STORM SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE OLDER RUNS...BUT ONLY ABOUT 25 MILES. HOWEVER...THE QPF IS STILL ROBUST...HIGHER THAN WHAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WE WILL AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z GFS HAS TO OFFER...IT HAS PERSISTENTLY OFFERED LESS QPF. THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE NAM (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY). NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES JUST YET. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Someone post the 12z NAM clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Someone post the 12z NAM clown maps. Go to Earl Barker site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 even though the qpf increased on the west side of the low, the location of qpf max really didnt budge.....and is night and day (relatively speaking) versus tha NAM/RGEM big standoff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly. I hope you're right, I think this would be one of the most fascinating storms in ages around here if the NAM/RGEM are right. But when I see them doing the same thing they did with two different s/w up here just in the last week I have to think they're potentially at it again. Meanwhile the GFS shifts west some, so a good compromise is in order hopefully in the form of the Euro. I've got to ask you because you would be the one to explain it - is it possible the convective nature of precip off of NJ is in fact causing the NAM to spin up the uber vorticity? This seems to be what happened the other day and gradually as each run passed inside of about 24-30 hours it slowed the development of the vorticity bomb and things shifted just slighty each run east. It did this for sure the other day, are we certain that's not what's happening this time? But it did. The GFS is coming around to a better hit in time, more QPF etc. It just won't develop the black hole that the NAM/RGEM are east of NJ. It's either a feedback issue on the NAM/RGEM or insufficient resolution/factors Tip mentioned on the globals. It's that simple. Kind of a ridiculous statement given performance of both models in the last week. I know you're excited but I believe the NAM works off the GFS first guess field for some data, so it isn't quite what you'd think. Yes, how does it compare to the euro? It's still east of the euro by maybe 30-40 miles or so. Big difference in sensible wx for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just in from ALY: FYI...THE 12Z NAM CAME IN TRACKING THE STORM SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE OLDER RUNS...BUT ONLY ABOUT 25 MILES. HOWEVER...THE QPF IS STILL ROBUST...HIGHER THAN WHAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WE WILL AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z GFS HAS TO OFFER...IT HAS PERSISTENTLY OFFERED LESS QPF. THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE NAM (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY). NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES JUST YET. STAY TUNED. I assume the meant the 0Z ECMWF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just in from ALY: FYI...THE 12Z NAM CAME IN TRACKING THE STORM SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE OLDER RUNS...BUT ONLY ABOUT 25 MILES. HOWEVER...THE QPF IS STILL ROBUST...HIGHER THAN WHAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WE WILL AWAIT TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z GFS HAS TO OFFER...IT HAS PERSISTENTLY OFFERED LESS QPF. THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE NAM (COMPARED TO YESTERDAY). NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES JUST YET. STAY TUNED. Do they mean 12z Euro from yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Do they mean 12z Euro from yesterday? Must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So I either get 18 inches or 8 based on 12Z NAM and GFS...nice I'm leaning towards 8-12 for us. Just told a co-worker 5-8 (with emphasis on 8) and now am thinking that is too low. Around 10" seems like a good number, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's still east of the euro by maybe 30-40 miles or so. Big difference in sensible wx for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Putting model forecasts aside-- How do they look in relaiton to what's actually happening outside now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Kind of a ridiculous statement given performance of both models in the last week. I know you're excited but I believe the NAM works off the GFS first guess field for some data, so it isn't quite what you'd think. It's not excitement, it's everything vs. the eastern outlier that is the GFS that is not nearly as equipped to handle this as the NAM as Tip has beaten into us. This sounds like you wanting the GFS solution, actually. What do you find wrong with them in the last week? They've done a very good job, actually, as opposed to much of the season before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5, NAM HRRR , high res time Mess. it is why they were developed You may be right but I'm asking...why is the NAM and the RGEM spinning up so much vorticity right off the Jersey coast out of the blue? Ironically at the same time they're both driving insane UVVs. If that were the GFS we'd scream feedback. Again just asking from a weather standpoint, what's causing it and did anyone notice the vorticity spin-up on this run of the NAM was a few ticks slower than last time? -- Crazy uncle ukie...goes with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 well it gives me .75 here in the manchester nh region although the 1 inch line just to my south so as of now any one know what my ratios will be 12 to 1? if so I guess I could expect 6-10" nam gives me 10-15 " ! hopefully 18z gfs comes around a little more so If I go middle of the road I would say 8-12 is a safe bet. I will take it and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Someone post the 12z NAM clown maps. They can't. They've run out of colors and have to run get the Crayola 128 pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 even though the qpf increased on the west side of the low, the location of qpf max really didnt budge.....and is night and day (relatively speaking) versus tha NAM/RGEM big standoff here. Not really, GFS is a eastern Outlier, Nam Western, Euro, MM5 right down the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 They can't. They've run out of colors and have to run get the Crayola 128 pack. As soon as I can figure out where the heck to find it on his site I'll post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You may be right but I'm asking...why is the NAM and the RGEM spinning up so much vorticity right off the Jersey coast out of the blue? Ironically at the same time they're both driving insane UVVs. If that were the GFS we'd scream feedback. Again just asking from a weather standpoint, what's causing it and did anyone notice the vorticity spin-up on this run of the NAM was a few ticks slower than last time? -- Crazy uncle ukie...goes with the GFS. If we could see the 18 and 21 Ukie maps it might be closer than you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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