Hurricane Isaias

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

It appears the eye is starting to clear

Looking good with some nice ventilation going on even in the SW quadrent. Has about 24 hours to maximize itself before shear starts to really impinge.

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
 
...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 89.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

[beanskip]

Last recon pass is up 2 mb to 978mb. Never seen a strengthening storm that doesn't lose any pressure for 5 hours ...

[Boston Bulldog]

I don’t think that’s a legit eye, IR suggests that the inner core convection still isn’t organized enough yet to pop one. Pause in strengthening for now, let’s see if Isaias can get going again soon.

[cptcatz]

Looks like it's struggling. What else do you expect from #2026?

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like it's struggling. What else do you expect from #2026?

Yep I was going to say the same thing... It just cannot keep the convection going.... every time it gets a burst, it fizzles out.

[cardinalland]

It’s passing over some slightly cooler SSTs right now

[ROOSTA]

I don't see an "EYE". Just hallucinations with convection sheared well to the NE. 

I named this sat capture as GONZO 

[eyewall]

Cloud tops warmed pretty quick. This system is definitely struggling right now. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Been on the same pattern since yesterday of convection really dying off during diurnal minimum but coming back with a vengeance overnight 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like it's struggling. What else do you expect from #2026?

That’s good news if it holds for those threatened. Hopefully shear will do its thing and keep it struggling. But it looks like it will probably still be a hurricane when it comes in and thus be no picnic for them.

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Been on the same pattern since yesterday of convection really dying off during diurnal minimum but coming back with a vengeance overnight 

I would think tonight’s its last chance to ramp up. It’s clearly struggling already with dry air and shear. Looks elongated already. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I don’t think that’s a legit eye, IR suggests that the inner core convection still isn’t organized enough yet to pop one. Pause in strengthening for now, let’s see if Isaias can get going again soon.

Looks like a legit eye to me but it’s only cleared out bc the convection waned and isn’t overshooting it from the SW I believe. Looks legit now 

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon seems supportive of 80 kts, closing in on cat 2 at a much more modest rate today 

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Recon seems supportive of 80 kts, closing in on cat 2 at a much more modest rate today 

I would expect one more significant ramp up tonight before it hits the shredder Tommorow 

[cptcatz]

Looks like it's trying to wrap some deep convection around the west side of the eye. If it can hold on and build an eyewall out of this, that's it's shot.

[NorthHillsWx]

20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I would expect one more significant ramp up tonight before it hits the shredder Tommorow 

 

16 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like it's trying to wrap some deep convection around the west side of the eye. If it can hold on and build an eyewall out of this, that's it's shot.

Yep. Core is there and it will be moving over slightly warmer waters too. Diurnal max will be the max for this system. Imo 95-105 kts is attainable 

[vortex95]

On 10/6/2026 at 4:50 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

This system has escalated quite a bit from what the original thinking was. Definitely some potential for a strong hurricane especially in the middle of the gulf 

Probably b/c of it small size.  Global models had trouble picking it up.