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October 2026

MJO812

By MJO812,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Under brilliant sunshine, today was a great day to see some of the migrating hummingbirds and monarchs at the New York Botanical Garden.  

the_other_guy
the_other_guy

Why is everyone bragging about no heat? I dont get it. 41F here this morning. Heat was on…and has been on at least 5 times already.  The weekend of 26/27, it was on several times during

Brian5671
Brian5671

Forky must have designed it.  

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Milder weather has now returned to the region. Tomorrow through Monday will see the mercury top out to the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region.

The week will also be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah.
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -22.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.722 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 10/7/2026 at 7:30 AM, MANDA said:

Same here.  We kept the heat off but chilly in here.  Overnight low 38 here on top of the hill.  Valley spots a few degrees lower.

Overall a very chilly morning across NJ:

Screenshot 2026-10-07 at 7.28.59 AM.jpg

Screenshot 2026-10-07 at 7.27.04 AM.jpg

Screenshot 2026-10-07 at 7.27.47 AM.jpg

Low of 35 here I'll post some frost photos. Edit can't post them darned file size limit so here is another fall foliage photo instead.

1936837985_HT3Fn1NXAAAkvTD(5).thumb.jpeg.157457ce40270cc9cd3d27172f776b41.jpeg1821527449_HT3Fn1LWgAACwYc(5).thumb.jpeg.df510587514eda0f6ce80bec21060644.jpeg

On 10/7/2026 at 7:39 AM, TWCCraig said:

40.2°F low. No frost here. Looks like Westhampton dropped to 30 degrees.

Avoided the 30s here for now

If they got down to 30 they beat Mount Pocono by 1 degree.

On 10/7/2026 at 7:52 AM, bluewave said:

The names only get retired if they cause significant enough effects. While the first Isaias gave me my strongest wind gusts to 78 mph back in SW Suffolk, it didn’t produce wide enough damage as a weaker hurricane and then tropical storm to have the name retired. Many big majors get retired along with weaker systems which produce historic rainfall. 

All Cat 1 landfalls should be retired.

On 10/7/2026 at 7:55 AM, lee59 said:

I remember, not only for the strong southerly wind as it passed to our west but that wind brought the ocean spray so far inland and killed the foliage on many of the south facing side of the trees.

Worst since Sandy both for winds and damage. 

On 10/7/2026 at 7:57 AM, Brian5671 said:

some frost on the rooftops here-down to 37 but recovering quickly now with the sunrise

Rooftop only frost but 35 for the low 37 is the lowest temperature you can have frost.

On 10/7/2026 at 8:12 AM, bluewave said:

First frost of the season here on the cartops with a low of 36°.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn

Interesting temperature difference 35 here with light rooftop frost 31 at Mount Pocono first freeze and 37 at Scranton. 

On 10/7/2026 at 8:27 AM, WestBabylonWeather said:

Being in southwest Suffolk I can tell you how serious Isaias was here. We had no power for about 8 days. Trees down everywhere. It was worse than Sandy for us personally 

It was also unexpected. 

On 10/7/2026 at 8:40 AM, bluewave said:

Luckily, my power was only out for 24 hrs. Took down a bunch of trees. But borderline TS to Cat 1 systems don’t get retired unless they cause historic flooding like Agnes in 1972.

It should be mandatory for all Cat 1 landfalls to be retired.

On 10/7/2026 at 8:52 AM, jm1220 said:

I remember being on the phone and watching a huge tree come down behind my backyard. That was an intense few hours. Luckily up here the heavy rain and intense winds are completely separate in tropical systems. 

Worst since Sandy.

On 10/7/2026 at 9:00 AM, Poker2015 said:

Same thing here. On the phone and hear a huge crash next door. 3 huge oak trees all went down and only missed their house because 2 of them landed on another tree and held them up.

This is why you need to remove weak trees near the house. 

On 10/7/2026 at 9:18 AM, WestBabylonWeather said:

My neighbors tree fell and took out a pole. PSEG had no poles. An out of state crew replaced it 8 days later. 
 

the tree that fell was hollow and had the largest carpenter ant nest I’ve ever seen. Because of that tree falling during the storm my property was inundated with carpenter ants. Had no choice to get an exterminator they were on the house from that stupid storm 

Yikes that's NASTY!

On 10/7/2026 at 9:27 AM, FPizz said:

35 here too, but did turn on the heat.  Most likely will turn it back off tomorrow morning.

And the air conditioning the following day lol.

On 10/7/2026 at 9:34 AM, nj08822 said:

Down to 34 in Nazareth PA (75 miles west of NYC).  Light frost everywhere, hope my peppers have a little more life left.

35 here and light frost but only on my roof. 

On 10/7/2026 at 10:02 AM, the_other_guy said:

Why is everyone bragging about no heat?

I dont get it.

41F here this morning. Heat was on…and has been on at least 5 times already. 

The weekend of 26/27, it was on several times during the day.

Who wants to be cold and damp in their house? Bizzaro

I had both air conditioning and heat on in August. 

On 10/7/2026 at 10:11 AM, FPizz said:

Agreed, turn on the heat or A/C as needed.  

Or even both at the same time lol.

On 10/7/2026 at 10:40 AM, Brian5671 said:

it's a badge of honor thing to some to see how late they can go without flipping the heat on.   Kinda weird but whatever floats your boat

Meh I'll turn it on in August if it's cold.

On 10/7/2026 at 11:36 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Bottomed out at 34.7. Frost on the roofs and many areas of the grass. 

35 here and frost but only on my roof.

On 10/7/2026 at 11:37 AM, jm1220 said:

PSEG really went to work in my neighborhood after Isaias and some other wind events and trimmed a lot of branches near wires so thankfully in this last storm I just had power flicker a couple times but was good. A few streets away though where they didn’t trim had no power for 2.5 days. :( 

Weak trees close to the house need to be removed I had to do that after a microburst in 2018.

On 10/7/2026 at 3:53 PM, jm1220 said:

First freeze at Westhampton-dropped to 31.

Same temperature as Mount Pocono 31 first freeze.

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:


Today's Highs

PHL: 80
ACY: 79
EWR: 78
JFK: 78
BLM: 77
New Brnswck: 77
LGA: 76
TEB: 76
ISP: 76
TTN: 75

NYC: 73

Wow only 68 here but tomorrow should be warmer in the 70s with less wind. Maybe you will hit 80.

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rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Low of 35 here I'll post some frost photos. Edit can't post them darned file size limit so here is another fall foliage photo instead.

1936837985_HT3Fn1NXAAAkvTD(5).thumb.jpeg.157457ce40270cc9cd3d27172f776b41.jpeg1821527449_HT3Fn1LWgAACwYc(5).thumb.jpeg.df510587514eda0f6ce80bec21060644.jpeg

If they got down to 30 they beat Mount Pocono by 1 degree.

All Cat 1 landfalls should be retired.

Worst since Sandy both for winds and damage. 

Rooftop only frost but 35 for the low 37 is the lowest temperature you can have frost.

Interesting temperature difference 35 here with light rooftop frost 31 at Mount Pocono first freeze and 37 at Scranton. 

It was also unexpected. 

It should be mandatory for all Cat 1 landfalls to be retired.

Worst since Sandy.

This is why you need to remove weak trees near the house. 

Yikes that's NASTY!

And the air conditioning the following day lol.

35 here and light frost but only on my roof. 

I had both air conditioning and heat on in August. 

Or even both at the same time lol.

Meh I'll turn it on in August if it's cold.

35 here and frost but only on my roof.

Weak trees close to the house need to be removed I had to do that after a microburst in 2018.

Same temperature as Mount Pocono 31 first freeze.

Wow only 68 here but tomorrow should be warmer in the 70s with less wind. Maybe you will hit 80.

Amazing Liberty! 20 post responses within one post……. Should we contact Guinness? As long as a ‘Daily Post Within A Post limited member’ designation is not created, you’ve certainly found a way. Five of these would be equivalent to a hundred post/responses daily. You would definitely secure a place in the New Englands Forums post count hall of fame. Stay well, as always ….

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted


59 / 46 looking like upper 60s to mid 70s across the board.  Weekend split again nice Saturday mimic of Friday and a wet Sunday into Monday 1-2 inches of rain.  Overall warmer  10/13-14 then cooling down by meid month towards and below nomal.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted


 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (2011)
NYC: 86 (1916)
LGA: 85 (2011)
JFK: 87 (2011)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 35 (1988)
NYC: 37 (1988)
LGA: 40 (1988)
JFK: 35 (2001)

 

Historical:

1703: Early-season snowstorm from Philadelphia to Boston. "The snow is now three to four inches deep... a sad face of winter"
(Judge Samuel Sewall's diary)

1804: New England's Snow Hurricane of 1804 - - - At Norfolk, winds shifted from Force 3 southwest (on the Beaufort scale) to Force 6 northwest by 2 p.m.. A schooner Rising Stakes, off Cape Henry, went through the "dreadful squall" at 11 a.m.. The system passed through Chesapeake Bay, then inland between Philadelphia and Atlantic City before moving onward to New York City and Boston. Eight perished offshore. As it passed through the Northeast, it became a nontropical low as cold air rapidly enveloped the circulation of the cyclone. Snow fell from the hills of Connecticut northward into Canada. As much as 24 to 30 inches of snow fell in the Berkshires of Massachusetts...which in a wet snow could be approximated to six inches or more of liquid precipitation. This was the first reference to snow involved with a land falling tropical cyclone, but not the last as this happen again in the April th and 7th storm of 1889.(Ref. for Snow Hurricane of 1804)(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1804: The famous Snow Hurricane moved ashore near Atlantic City on this day. After briefly passing through Connecticut and into Massachusetts, cold air was entrained in the circulation with heavy snow falling between New York to southern Canada. Berkshires Massachusetts and Concord New Hampshire record two feet of snow with this hurricane. This storm produced the first observation of snow from a hurricane, but not the last. Hurricane Ginny of 1963 brought up to 18 inches (400 mm) of snow to portions of Maine. 

1895: Snow fell in Philadelphia, PA, the earliest occurrence of snow in the city's history. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1903 - New York City was deluged with 11.17 inches of rain 24 hours to establish a state record. Severe flooding occurred in the Passaic Valley of New Jersey where more than fifteen inches of rain was reported. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1903: At Richmond, a "furious wind storm" descended upon the city the morning of the 9th, accompanied by a 20 degree fall in temperature. Trees were uprooted and communications were "disturbed" in the state capital. An elderly man in Leesburg drowned while trying to cross over Little River on a log. East Coast Storms

1924: Boston, Massachusetts started a period of 44 days without measurable precipitation today. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1944: Major hailstorm in Montana causes $7.5 million crop loss. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1970: The Weather Bureau is officially renamed the National Weather Service. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1973: Heavy rains and hail pounded extreme eastern South Dakota during the late evening hours. 3.79 inches of rain fell in a 2 hour period at the Sioux Falls airport setting a new rainfall intensity record for a two hour period in Sioux Falls. The 4.54 inches that fell that day is the second highest amount on record for a 24 hour period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: Nashville, TN set two records in opposite directions. On Monday, October 6th, the morning low temperature was 31°, a record cold for so early in the season. Then, on this date, the high was 91°, a record high for so late in the season. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1981 - The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville NC dipped to 29 degrees, and the record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville FL marked their fourth of the month. A second surge of cold air brought light snow to the Northern Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Hartford CT with a reading of 28 degrees. Snow continued in northern New England through the morning hours. Mount Washington NH reported five inches of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the Upper Midwest. Thirteen cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana reported record low temperatures for the date, including Marquette MI with a reading of 20 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. as the San Francisco Giants won the National League pennant. San Jose CA reported a record high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)


2001: An unusually strong fall outbreak of tornadoes spawned at least 23 twisters across parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma. Hardest hit was the town of Cordell, OK, but a 22 minute lead time led to an amazingly low casualty count: only nine injuries and no fatalities. 

2003: A severe thunderstorms rolled across Bikoro in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Lightning struck a school, killing 11 people and injuring 73 others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: A major winter storm brought heavy wet snowfall to the Front Range Mountains and the Eastern Foothills in Colorado, portions of the Denver Metro area and the Palmer Divide. Snow accumulations ranged from 8 to 26 inches with drifts 3 to 4 feet high reported in places. The heaviest snow occurred to the east and southeast of Denver closing major highways, including I-70 from Denver to Limon. Snowfall totals included: 22 inches near Hawkins, 19 inches near Bennett, 17 inches southeast of Aurora, 16 inches in the foothills near Boulder, 14 inches near Parker, 13 inches near Castle Rock, 12 inches in Centennial, 11 inches at Parker, 10 inches at Littleton and 10 inches at the airport in Denver. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

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guinness77

guinness77

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, rclab said:

Amazing Liberty! 20 post responses within one post……. Should we contact Guinness? As long as a ‘Daily Post Within A Post limited member’ designation is not created, you’ve certainly found a way. Five of these would be equivalent to a hundred post/responses daily. You would definitely secure a place in the New Englands Forums post count hall of fame. Stay well, as always ….

 

 

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FPizz

FPizz

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Appreciate the input. I’m expecting 60 and cloudy at best if I try to host our outdoor party.

Fire pit will be roaring, but I’m sure the older generation will still be cold. 

Unfortunately I don't think its going to be dry.  

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Appreciate the input. I’m expecting 60 and cloudy at best if I try to host our outdoor party.

Fire pit will be roaring, but I’m sure the older generation will still be cold. 

Not a great day no matter how you slice it.  More a question of how bad will it be.  :(

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