Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

But wait, by 21z Saturday it's coming north and dropping pressures and strengthening heading in a Rhode Island ish direction

13z Sunday, it's headed west and retrograding. So odd to see a Nor'Easter do this, but then again, it's a hybrid system, not a true Nor'Easter. Think a less powerful version of Sandy/Halloween Storm '91.

I wonder why hybrid storms do this.

[wthrmn654]

The one Mesomodel in testing came way west with precip area wide now. I think we have a concesus finally with minor details to iron out

[wthrmn654]

The rgem run reminds me a lot like those tops you would spin as kids,  random and wonky patterns... it's just doing loop de loops up the east coast. 

[TriPol]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

The rgem run reminds me a lot like those tops you would spin as kids,  random and wonky patterns... it's just doing loop de loops up the east coast. 

Both the GFS and EURO have shown this. It'll be fascinating to watch in real time. Like a strong hurricane hurricane wobbles, this storm will do the same.

[wthrmn654]

Icon looks a bit west. Good looks like it's going be fun at work the next few days.  Back to laundry and sleep, maybe

[wthrmn654]

Rgem just goes due west under long island and dies in New Jersey. 

[Tatamy]

In scanning through the overnight model runs I am really struck by the remarkable agreement of the forthcoming wind storm about to ravage the area.  Model after model showing gusts to 40 - 60 mph from overnight Friday into Sunday.  It’s not just LI which will get the worst of it.  It includes NYC, NJ, SE NY, even into parts of eastern PA and then into southern New England.  Fully leafed trees and heavy rains look to combine with this to cause widespread power outages.

[TriPol]

I'm really concerned that NWS is warning New England but not Long Island. I don't really believe Boston is going to get the same impact that Long Island is. In fact, I don't even think the low pressure, until its completely fizzled out, moves north Seaside Heights. Every model has this moving West. So why are placed like MA and RI getting the warnings and not Long Island? Upton is REALLY slow to pull the trigger here. 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I'm really concerned that NWS is warning New England but not Long Island. I don't really believe Boston is going to get the same impact that Long Island is. In fact, I don't even think the low pressure, until its completely fizzled out, moves north Seaside Heights. Every model has this moving West. So why are placed like MA and RI getting the warnings and not Long Island? Upton is REALLY slow to pull the trigger here. 

They are usually late to the party. Same thing during the winter. 

They might be hesitant though and want to see what happens with the runs today. 

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They are usually late to the party. Same thing during the winter. 

They might be hesitant though and want to see what happens with the runs today. 

Every single model is in agreement on what happens. There's no model taking this into Maine and hitting Maine. This is a high impact storm that will impact millions of people. They need to hoist warnings up ASAP.

[EasternLI]

Hopefully nam just being the nam and was up all night drinking. I'd really rather not see any 978mb tempest sitting anywhere out there by later on today.

 

[MJO812]

Still raining 

Rgem

[MJO812]

Icon

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still raining 

Rgem

We do not need 5.4 inches of rain. Jesus Christ. I hope this is wrong.

[wthrmn654]

Nws did not upgrade any of there wind products during there morning updates, however for my area specifically they have raised the coast flooding levels twice now 

[wthrmn654]

Well this is concerning as well

 

However, with current buoy observations running higher than
Wavewatch by a few feet, felt wave heights are already within
advisory range within the surf zone. Beach flooding and erosion
can be expected Friday into Saturday.

[nycwinter]

nws upton has been behind the 8 ball with this storm the entire time and still is..

[ForestHillWx]

Seems rather quiet in here for what’s about to likely unfold on the Tri-state area.

I am slightly more concerned what might happen from a power perspective, compared to projected rainfall, in light of fully leafed out trees in my area.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Still raining 

Rgem

Latest SPC HREF Max is similar to the RGEM showing 5”+ potential on Long Island where the best banding develops NW of the center. But the location of these bands often shifts right up to storm time. So we’ll have to review again later with the new guidance today.

 

 

[wthrmn654]

Wow 6z gfs raises my area tide forecast yet again.. over 6 feet

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Standard Nor’easter without the snow, periods of rain on and off with breezy conditions, nice fall weekend

This isn’t a run of the mill nor’easter and there’s more to weather around here than just snow.

[bluewave]

Latest tide forecast gets Sandy Hook near the 10th highest tide level tomorrow and highest tide of the 2020s. 
 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8531680

 

 

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Standard Nor’easter without the snow, periods of rain on and off with breezy conditions, nice fall weekend

Stop trolling 

[WeatherGeek2025]

this is looking like a disaster for the shores of Long Island and New Jersey

[MJO812]

West

[jimbo073]

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Nws did not upgrade any of there wind products during there morning updates, however for my area specifically they have raised the coast flooding levels twice now 

They did for me in Hoboken, we now have a Wind Advisory

 

[jconsor]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest tide forecast gets Sandy Hook near the 10th highest tide level tomorrow and highest tide of the 2020s. 
 

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8531680

 

 

The NWS water level forecast for Sandy Hook may be conservative.  Consensus of the 3 main forecast models (https://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/) is for a water level peaking around 9 feet, with potential for 9.5-10 feet in the higher end scenarios.  That could easily put this event as the fourthhighest in the past 60 years.

[TriPol]

NWS blinked... a little. We now have Coastal Flood Warnings along the entire coast of Long Island. Really wish they would issue Flood Watches and High Wind Warnings as well. 
 

National Weather Service New York NY
644 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Warnings have been issued for a large portion of
the coastline to cover multiple high tide cycles from tonight
through Sunday.

The Wind Advisory was expanded in area. It now includes all of
Long Island, NYC, all of S CT, all of Westchester, Rockland,
and all but W Passaic in NE NJ.

All ocean waters are now under a Storm Warning.

[jconsor]

16 hours ago, jconsor said:

I agree the specific REFS scenario should be largely dismissed, though the idea of a westward turn occurring fairly far south near southern NJ and the Delmarva has merit IMHO.

The REFS (RRFS ensemble) has a lot of value and so far I have barely seen anyone mentioning it.  Probably because the site with REFS graphics seems to be a pretty well kept secret: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/

The images I posted below show probability of 58 mph wind gusts (HWW criteria) at 42, 54 and 60 hours from the most recent REFS run (15z).  Based on this I think a HWW would be well justified for the south shore of LI as well as eastern Suffolk, perhaps even into se CT. 

I also added the MSLP and 850 mb wind forecasts from the REFS at 60 hours, showing the mean places the storm well north of the RRFS operational.

The REFS (RRFS ensemble) probability of wind gusts exceeding High Wind Warning criteria e.g. 58 mph for Sat into early Sun morning remains unnervingly high for the South Shore of LI as well as Eastern Suffolk.  Additionally, on this run, the probabilities over 25% have edged into southern portions of NYC like southern SI and far southern Brooklyn and Queens.

Still unclear to me why NWS Upton is holding back on a high wind warning for the above-mentioned areas, especially eastern Suffolk where the model consensus is strongest.

Note the REFS has shifted NW with the position of the low pressure and the 850 mb low center at 48 hours, if you compare to the 60 hour forecast from the previous post.

 

 

 

 

 

[jbenedet]

I remember distinctly with Sandy it was a dry storm on LI and drought conditions leading into it. That really helped mitigate the wind and power outage impacts. 

This is obviously a much weaker storm but the convective nature of it should help to maximize the rainfall (fresh water flooding) and wind threat along the coast.