Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

18z gfs ai still doing is loop over Montauk. Not doing what the rgem or nam did. 

makes sense in a way-the meso's are wrapping it up more where as the less resolution globals arent-a weak storm is likely to get further north

[wthrmn654]

Coastal flood products are just being issued watches and stuff. 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Good thing the rain comes in waves instead of a continuous downpour. Will help with flooding.

Like a tropical system with banding. 

[wthrmn654]

Have to get some clarification on why there issuing watches for only minor flooding forecasts based on what they just issued,  watches criteria is when moderate to major flooding is forecast within certain amount of time. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Looks like nothing burger according to NWS forecast for NW Jersey. But most likely, JCP&L's grid will take a shit and I'll lose power. With them here, if a squirrel farts we lose power on a sunny calm day.

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Looks like nothing burger according to NWS forecast for NW Jersey. But most likely, JCP&L's grid will take a shit and I'll lose power. With them here, if a squirrel farts we lose power on a sunny calm day.

Winds will be decently strong inland. If this was January there would be blizzard warnings.

[SnoSki14]

People are greatly underestimating how destructive this will be for the coast. 

[Stormlover74]

 

[nycwinter]

upton latest forecast is the most sensible one they done with this storm..

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

People are greatly underestimating how destructive this will be for the coast. 

Agree

Euro AI is insane. Lots of rain.

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Euro AI is insane. Lots of rain.

is there a map?

[mob1]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

is there a map?

 

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

People are greatly underestimating how destructive this will be for the coast. 

Comparing it to December 1992 or Sandy is utter BS though.

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Euro AI is insane. Lots of rain.

No reason to compare it to the GOAT of noreasters though.

5 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

58mph I had to look up again

Why do they use these silly crooked numbers? Is it because of archaic and antiquated knots? Either switch to the metric system or use actual miles. Same goes for the Saffir Simpson scale since advisories are issued in 5 mph increments anyway why is a tropical storm 39 mph and a hurricane 74 mph and some of those category thresholds are messed up too.

5 hours ago, OldSkool said:

Reminds me of December 1992 except this is stronger.

Then you dont remember December 1992 that was the Michael Jordan of noreasters and we'll never see anything like that ever again. Three days of heavy rain hurricane force winds and parts of all five boroughs and coastal new Jersey under water and people trapped in Manhattan skyscrapers. In some ways it was worse than Sandy and was definitely worse than the March 1993 superstorm. Three feet of snow away from the coast too.

 

[wthrmn654]

Gefs was id say a fairly big improvement 

[wthrmn654]

And bam there maps are showing stronger winds and worse coastal flooding finally. 

[wthrmn654]

Nws did a sneaky update and looks to of raised coastal flooding amounts again, now my tide gauge is up to moderate levels. 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Nws did a sneaky update and looks to of raised coastal flooding amounts again, now my tide gauge is up to moderate levels. 

I just don't get how most of the area is under a coastal flood advisory instead of a watch. NWS is really dropping the ball on this one,

[wthrmn654]

Just now, TriPol said:

I just don't get how most of the area is under a coastal flood advisory instead of a watch. NWS is really dropping the ball on this one,

It's multi layered.. there are statements, advisories and watches.  For 3 separate tide cycles in some places, there so much going on the map doesn't fully paint am accurate picture. 

[wthrmn654]

In other news 12k and 3k nams are much further north closer to long island now and boy, is the 3k dropping pressures.

[TriPol]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

It's multi layered.. there are statements, advisories and watches.  For 3 separate tide cycles in some places, there so much going on the map doesn't fully paint am accurate picture. 

The entire area should be under some kind of moderate storm watch and there should be specific advisories with that. Honestly, the European weather products are so much easier to understand. 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

In other news 12k and 3k nams are much further north closer to long island now and boy, is the 3k dropping pressures.

984 is the lowest pressure I've seen. 

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

The entire area should be under some kind of moderate storm watch and there should be specific advisories with that. Honestly, the European weather products are so much easier to understand. 

I believe all of Long Island is under cocktail flood watch

[wthrmn654]

Rgem is west and stronger as well...

 

If these stronger trends continue i can't see why high wind warnings won't follow in morning for some areas. 

[TriPol]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

I believe all of Long Island is under cocktail flood watch

Cocktail? Sounds like my kind of storm watch!

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

984 is the lowest pressure I've seen. 

I saw 979 on 3knam

[wthrmn654]

Just now, TriPol said:

Cocktail? Sounds like my kind of storm watch!

Oops coastal

[wthrmn654]

3km says by 12z Sunday is 984, still windy area wide and kinda looks to be crawling,  but that's the end of run

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Oops coastal

Hurricane party in Mastic!

[wthrmn654]

Rgem appears to of had to many cocktails and would appear to of done atleast 2 or 3 loops so far... way down south

[wthrmn654]

But wait, by 21z Saturday it's coming north and dropping pressures and strengthening heading in a Rhode Island ish direction