October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I don’t think sub 990 mb mslp happens south of 40N in late September unless there is a tropical aspect to the system.

Baroclinicity alone isn’t sufficient for that level of deepening.

Agree. And the Euro ... described below.

As far as the GFS ...the difference seems to be that it doesn't include a tropical source.  It is more purely cooler thermodynamic/baroclinic, and as such a weaker total cyclonic recovery takes place when this ...weirdness closes off. In and of itself I suspect it is too strong ?  Not certain on that; just a-priori on modeling tending to bias on the strong side with everything at this range ...only to Charlie Brown the top 10, 20 ...30% off results at go time...  I think there's wiggle room in this scenario as far as amplitude results.

The Euro on the other hand, heh. It pretty clearly indicates what it "thinks" is a kind of 'zygote' tropical entity straddling or just barotropic sidled to the frontalysis boundary, which it is extending between the Carolinas and mid way to Bermuda over these next 48 hours.  WPC currently analyzes a stationary boundary with low on it, however. Still, it first appears more tropical in the phase space nearing 988 mb as it moves W toward the VA Capes lat (off shore).. Then drifts NNE toward the Benchmark, losing those characteristics in a less hospitable environment, before undergoing some sort of delayed baroclinic inject, it then re-deepens to 984 or so as it retrogrades back W along or S of LI..   Helluva sell for meticulous skill -

I find that overall evolution either extraordinary, or ... unlikely to be so well handled and accurate by the Euro so precisely.  We'll see. It's interesting... 

All of it I suspect is more open to uncertainty than many are likely aware.  Just higher than normal for this range.

[Great Snow 1717]

How soft has society become you ask???...so soft that some girls volleyball matches scheduled for Saturday have been postponed. .last time I checked volleyball is played INDOORS..

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How soft has society become you ask???...so soft that some girls volleyball matches scheduled for Saturday have been postponed. .last time I checked volleyball is played INDOORS..

Not meaning to digress the thread but all of humanity appears to be swooning over and guided by the 'grand presentation' these days. 

It's like we're all participating unwittingly in a dystopian cinema - if not delusion.  It's a movie about the evolutionary scaled, socio-technological experiment we're sending our own species through. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How soft has society become you ask???...so soft that some girls volleyball matches scheduled for Saturday have been postponed. .last time I checked volleyball is played INDOORS..

I'm sure if it were a weekday-we'd have school closures for wind and rain.  in NEW ENGLAND nonetheless

[WinterWolf]

Lawsuits…that’s why. God forbid if a bus load of kids has a tree branch fall on the bus.  So that’s why.  Whatever. Back to the potential storm. 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lawsuits…that’s why. God forbid if a bus load of kids has a tree branch fall on the bus.  So that’s why.  Whatever. Back to the potential storm. 

That poor kid last year that had the tree kill him while on the physical playground at school outside Boston during a windy day… that stuff is why.

[Lava Rock]

That poor kid last year that had the tree kill him while on the physical playground at school outside Boston during a windy day… that stuff is why.

Parents try to sue the school?

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[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Parents try to sue the school?

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Good luck-it's an act of God...you can't cancel school on every windy day

[Brian5671]

NAM looks a bit further west at hour 18

[Lava Rock]

Good luck-it's an act of God...you can't cancel school on every windy day

I know, but our sue-happy society has no limits

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[SouthCoastMA]

48 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How soft has society become you ask???...so soft that some girls volleyball matches scheduled for Saturday have been postponed. .last time I checked volleyball is played INDOORS..

It's more about the travel to the venue. Seems kinda an unnecessary risk to take when the winds are 50-65mph. 

boomer take 

[KTBFFH1905]

46 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How soft has society become you ask???...so soft that some girls volleyball matches scheduled for Saturday have been postponed. .last time I checked volleyball is played INDOORS..

Last weekend our in town flag football program cancelled all games on Saturday afternoon, they play on Sunday morning. Yet, our soccer club got every game in. I completely agree on how soft society has gotten. I run our soccer club, when we have rain forecast I must get 5-8 emails / texts asking "it's wet out, are we really playing". 

Just go sign your kid up for Rubics cube classes.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lawsuits…that’s why. God forbid if a bus load of kids has a tree branch fall on the bus.  So that’s why.  Whatever. Back to the potential storm. 

Definitely part of it. Also, the game can be rescheduled. Not a huge deal

[qg_omega]

HRRRR gone wild

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

HRRRR gone wild

HRRR looks pretty cool, but HRRR at 48 hrs.. so idk

[CoastalWx]

Convective models will go wild in these setups.

[Bostonseminole]

NAM is pretty far west..

[MJO812]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

NAM is pretty far west..

Looks like it will go into NJ

[weatherwiz]

That would be some good wind on LI and NJ tomorrow afternoon...probably some significant coastal flooding too 

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Good luck-it's an act of God...you can't cancel school on every windy day

Correct..

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That poor kid last year that had the tree kill him while on the physical playground at school outside Boston during a windy day… that stuff is why.

 

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Good luck-it's an act of God...you can't cancel school on every windy day

 

5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

I know, but our sue-happy society has no limits

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

 

4 minutes ago, KTBFFH1905 said:

Last weekend our in town flag football program cancelled all games on Saturday afternoon, they play on Sunday morning. Yet, our soccer club got every game in. I completely agree on how soft society has gotten. I run our soccer club, when we have rain forecast I must get 5-8 emails / texts asking "it's wet out, are we really playing". 

Just go sign your kid up for Rubics cube classes.

 

 

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Definitely part of it. Also, the game can be rescheduled. Not a huge deal

I'm always fascinated when we hop down this societal rabbit hole. Can't two things be true?

Some of the things we do have come to reflect an overly cautious nature. But some of the things we do also aren't the smartest.

 

You can't cancel school on every windy day, sure. 

But you also can't tell the parents burying their baby oh well, it was just an act of God when you lost their child on your watch. I don't care about your politics, age, or upbringing--nobody is going to want to hear that. Especially if forecasts explicitly said a storm was coming. 

[weatherwiz]

Have to wonder if the NAM is going a bit too wonky with the deepening but it keeps this warm core for some time 

[WxWatcher007]

Anyway, back to wx. Our area of interest is still strung out. It's going to take a while to consolidate but when it does this loop is going to be very interesting to look at. 

 

[weatherwiz]

If there are trees or limbs hanging over an area where kids play, such as a playscape, and there is signs of tree rot or tree damage you could certainly make a case for negligence on the property owner. No different if you say hurt yourself walking through a parking lot of an establishment because of torn up pavement or concrete  

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Convective models will go wild in these setups.

 

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Have to wonder if the NAM is going a bit too wonky with the deepening but it keeps this warm core for some time 

I think we want that though. It'd be a red flag if the high res weren't picking up on a strong system. I'm really interested in seeing the rain signal. The overnight models painted a nasty zone of sig rain. GFS wanted to paint SW CT as ground zero for flood potential again. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I think we want that though. It'd be a red flag if the high res weren't picking up on a strong system. I'm really interested in seeing the rain signal. The overnight models painted a nasty zone of sig rain. GFS wanted to paint SW CT as ground zero for flood potential again. 

Let’s bury this in Maryland 

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s bury this in Maryland 

the nam might give you that

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s bury this in Maryland 

You need the rain…why would you want that? 

[Bostonseminole]

NAM 3K has it down to 976 at 45hrs, east of the NC/VA border

[Damage In Tolland]

Mets are discussing this possibly being a total miss south