uofmiami Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Atlantic heating up and next storm formation incresing It actually decreased from yesterday. It most likely won't develop at all thanks to the SAL & shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 6 minutes ago, uofmiami said: It actually decreased from yesterday. It most likely won't develop at all thanks to the SAL & shear. might be another year of no hits on the US mainland 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 48 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Atlantic heating up and next storm formation incresing There's a wall of shear it will run into. I don't think this gets named at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 6 minutes ago, TriPol said: There's a wall of shear it will run into. I don't think this gets named at all. Absolutely silent as a mouse this year. Maybe we can get something to develop in the Gulf late season but Cape Verde activity absolutely dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: might be another year of no hits on the US mainland Most likely. Gfs went from a strong atlantic low to nothing like the euro. Hurricane season sucks in El Ninos. Maybe homebrew storms but dont count on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Whats the timing 9f storms tomorrow? Mainly afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 20 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Whats the timing 9f storms tomorrow? Mainly afternoon? Low confidence really, I think outside of far west areas if the warm front from 1-5pm does not generate anything we may see nothing but a weak line of showers after 8pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Low confidence really, I think outside of far west areas if the warm front from 1-5pm does not generate anything we may see nothing but a weak line of showers after 8pm. models are unimpressive unless you're N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 48 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Most likely. Gfs went from a strong atlantic low to nothing like the euro. Hurricane season sucks in El Ninos. Maybe homebrew storms but dont count on it. might see something in the gulf but low odds overall. Kind of good we don't need a 10 inch rain fall lolz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Central PA Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Most likely. Gfs went from a strong atlantic low to nothing like the euro. Hurricane season sucks in El Ninos. Maybe homebrew storms but dont count on it. Strong Ninos are known for little hurricane activity and mild winters..it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Been a perfect week at fire island so far. Dry, sun and upper 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: models are unimpressive unless you're N and W How far N & W? Like Sparta or Poconos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Flood watch issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 28 minutes ago, mikeysed said: How far N & W? Like Sparta or Poconos? Yeah GFS and NAM are both showing Passaic as a hit so idk what to believe lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 85 degrees and mostly sunny with a dewpoint of 56 here. Absolutely perfect summer day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, mikeysed said: How far N & W? Like Sparta or Poconos? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago 3 hours ago, Keith Central PA said: Strong Ninos are known for little hurricane activity and mild winters..it is what it is It's not that simple. Yes mild and wet is the status quo but other factors play a major role too. I think hurricane season will mostly be a shutout but watch out for homebrew threats in September/October. SSTs are above normal and there's lower shear north of the MDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 7 hours ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 103 (1948) NYC: 103 (1948) LGA: 103 (1948) JFK: 100 (1948) Lows: EWR: 51 (1942) NYC: 53 (1887) LGA: 53 (1940) JFK: 53 (1963) Historical: 1591: Roanoke Island was again struck by a severe storm. The winds blew out of the northeast, directly into the harbor. Waves crashed on a sandbar and currents in the area became quite dangerous. (Ref. for the storm of 1591) 1635: New England on August 25th and 26th: The Great Colonial Hurricane strikes the New England coast. Rev. Increase Mather writes: "...no storm more dismal than the great hurricane." Many shipwrecks and several near-disasters occur during the storm, one of which would give birth to a favorite New England legend surrounding Thacher's Island. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1827: A hurricane originating near the Windward Islands struck Cape Hatteras, before moving northeast offshore Virginia, Maryland, and New England. Initial reports from Wilmington, NC indicated that this was a storm of great intensity as it passed by to their east. One report gave an account of waves over the top of garden fences some 6900 feet from the beach. Other reports indicated storm tides greater than 10 feet above normal levels. The western end of Pamlico Sound, reported water levels 12 to 15 feet above ordinary levels. The following first hand account of this storm in Virginia was from the Tazewell Papers in the Virginia State Library. Henry Tazewell wrote to his brother John in New York and described the storm as such. "....A severe gale which continued for three days changed the climate here entirely and persons are clad generally in full suits of winter clothing; the same gale has done great injury to shipping and to present crops. The fodder is worthless and the corn in many places is much broken by the wind." The gale "...commenced in the forenoon of August 25th and continued to increase until the evening, when it blew tremendously. About midnight, the rain ceased and the gales somewhat abated, though it continued to blow fresh all day on the 26th." At the height of the storm, winds unroofed a two story building on Talbot street in Norfolk and commenced to blow away the second floor of the building. Livestock was swept away in large numbers. Corn was leveled at Belleview...a mill dam was torn to shreds and the bridge over it was swept away. (Ref. for St. Kitts Hurricane) 1864 - A train running from Cincinnati to Chicago was derailed by a tornado in Dearborn County, Indiana, or 75 miles southeast of Indianapolis. Two passenger cars were lifted from the tracks and dropped in a ravine which injured 30 people. 1883 - Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the air wave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and then vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888. (David Ludlum) 1895: Snow flurries affected parts of Pennsylvania, New York and New England with snow observed as far south as Hartford, CT. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1910: Peoria, IL registered a low temperature of 41°. This established a record for the month of August, although it has been tied twice since then. Daily low temperatures were established at Lincoln, IL with 37°; Decatur, IL: 44°; and Champaign, IL: 46°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1915: Severe cold and killing frosts across Minnesota with 23 degrees at Roseau, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1924: A hurricane brushed New England with 80 mph winds reported at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA. The pressure at Nantucket Island dropped to 28.71 inches of mercury. Boston, Massachusetts recorded its lowest pressure 29.26 inches of mercury for the month of August. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1940: Boston, Massachusetts had its lowest August temperature of 46 °F. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1949 - A hurricane made landfall at Delray Beach. Winds reached 153 mph at the Jupiter Lighthouse before the anemometer failed. The hurricane caused 45 million dollars damage to crops, and also caught the Georgia and South Carolina coast resulting in another two million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1965 - Late night severe thunderstorms associated with an unusually strong late summer cold front produced 100 mph winds straight line winds in the Chicago area and northwest Indiana. In Lake County IND, high winds derailed a train near Crown Point, and left a canoe suspended among telephone lines. Two nights later the temperature at Midway Airport in Chicago dipped to 43 degrees, establishing a record for the month of August. (Storm Data) (Hugh Crowther) 1976 - A weak tornado touched down briefly in the Hockley Hills near Kiana, AK, about 29 miles north of the Arctic Circle. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms drenched northern Illinois during the morning and afternoon hours pushing August rainfall totals for Chicago, Moline and Peoria to new all-time highs for any month of the year. By the end of August, Chicago had received 17.10 inches of rain, which easily surpassed the previous record of 14.17 inches established in September 1961. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A dozen cities in Texas, Colorado and California reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 100 degrees at Pueblo CO, 106 degrees at Wichita Falls TX, and 109 degrees at Redding CA. Afternoon thunderstorms in Utah deluged the town of Beaver with more than an inch of rain in twenty minutes. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Anchorage, AK, was soaked with a steady rain, and the 24 hour total of 4.12 inches smashed their previous 24 hour precipitation total of 2.10 inches. It also pushed their rainfall total for the month past their previous record for August. (The National Weather Summary) 1993: Butte, MT picked up 5 inches of heavy, early season snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1996: Norfolk, VA lightning seriously injured two boys who were sitting at a picnic table beneath a tree. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 2002: No tornado damage, just high straight-line winds. Severe thunderstorm winds to 87 mph overturned 15 empty railroad cars in Wallace, KS; each had a posted weight of 15 tons. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) A severe thunderstorm produced large and damaging hail at Cheyenne, WY during the evening. Hail up to the size of baseballs fell over especially the central and west parts of town producing widespread damage, particularly to roofs and automobiles. Total damage estimates exceeded $30 million dollars. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2003: A derecho associated with a cluster of severe thunderstorms affected parts of Michigan and states eastward to Washington, DC. Strong winds left hundreds of thousands of customers without power, just weeks after the Great Blackout of 2003. The Great Blackout of 2003 was Thursday, August 14, 2003, just before 4:10 p.m. EDT. At the time, it was the second most widespread blackout in history, after the 1999 Southern Brazil blackout. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: Katrina made landfall in southern Florida on August 26 as a Cat 1 hurricane. It crossed Florida and headed through the Gulf of Mexico, growing in strength to a Cat 5 while still offshore of Louisiana on August 28, with top wind speeds of 175 MPH and a central pressure of 902 MB. Fortunately before making landfall on August 29 in Eastern Louisiana/southern Mississippi it diminished somewhat in intensity to a Cat 3. There were 1833 deaths and $81 billion in damages, the costliest hurricane ever in the United States. Ref. (Weather Underground Hurricane History Archives - Katrina) Also see -- Complete History of Hurricane Katrina 43 pages Katrina made landfall again see the date - (August 29, 2005) for more information. 2007: The remnants of Hurricane Dean produced thunderstorms and heavy rain all over the San Diego Metro area in southern California. Two inches of rain fell in just 90 minutes at Escondido during the morning. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2017: Harvey's intensification phase stalled slightly overnight from August 24–25, however Harvey soon resumed strengthening and became a Category 4 hurricane late on August 25. Hours later, Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas, at peak intensity. The strongest winds were focused just northeast of Corpus Christi, around Rockport. The highest reading of 132 mph was registered at Port Aransas. Harvey, a tropical storm by Tuesday morning with its eye hovering over the Gulf of Mexico, could still dump up to 15 inches of rain on portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana, including the saturated Houston area, where thousands have been rescued and many more still wait for help. The greatest problem would be the record rainfall amounts. (15 inches of rain and more to come) (Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas)(Satellite-before-Landfall on the 24-25 landfall near Rockport, Texas) 2020: Wednesday- August 26 -2020 Nearing landfall, Laura reached peak intensity as a category 4 hurricane early Wednesday evening as a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicated that maximum sustained winds had increased to 150 mph as the center of Laura was approximately 120 miles to the south of Lake Charles, LA. as the central minimum pressure fell to 937 mb ( inches of mercury). At that time, Laura's outer bands had begun moving onshore along the Louisiana coast, accompanied by strong winds, steady rain and several possible tornadoes. Hurricane Laura made landfall along the Louisiana Gulf Coast near Cameron, LA just after midnight on 1948 WOW now THAT was a real summer and if I'm not mistaken JFKs latest 100 degree day and back to back 100 degree days and NYC had three in a row in late August no less!!! 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LibertyBell Posted 34 minutes ago Share Posted 34 minutes ago 9 hours ago, bluewave said: This was the warmest developing super El Niño summer across the area. In the past these summers weren’t as warm like 2023. Several older ones were on the cooler side. Multiple locations in the top 10 for warmest summer through August 25th. Plus a number of stations got close to their all-time highs in early July which didn’t happen during any of the other developing super El Niño summers. Parts of NJ also reached 100° in May which set a new monthly maximum temperature in spots. Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ Warmest Summers through August 25thClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-08-25 76.6 0 2 2024-08-25 76.1 0 3 2022-08-25 75.9 0 - 2005-08-25 75.9 0 4 2020-08-25 75.8 0 5 1999-08-25 75.6 0 6 2026-08-25 75.5 1 7 2016-08-25 75.3 0 8 2011-08-25 75.1 0 9 2021-08-25 75.0 0 10 2019-08-25 74.9 0 - 2012-08-25 74.9 0 - 2002-08-25 74.9 0 11 2025-08-25 74.8 0 - 2006-08-25 74.8 0 12 2008-08-25 74.5 1 13 2013-08-25 74.4 0 14 2018-08-25 74.3 0 15 2015-08-25 74.2 0 16 1988-08-25 74.1 0 17 1995-08-25 73.9 0 - 1994-08-25 73.9 0 18 1983-08-25 73.8 0 19 2017-08-25 73.6 0 - 1987-08-25 73.6 0 20 1973-08-25 73.5 0 21 1980-08-25 73.3 0 22 2023-08-25 73.2 0 - 1991-08-25 73.2 1 23 1981-08-25 73.0 0 - 1968-08-25 73.0 0 24 2003-08-25 72.9 0 - 1984-08-25 72.9 1 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Warmest Summers Through August 25thClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-08-25 74.9 0 2 2010-08-25 74.8 0 3 2020-08-25 74.7 0 4 1999-08-25 74.6 0 5 2022-08-25 74.4 0 6 2024-08-25 74.3 0 7 2019-08-25 74.2 0 - 2016-08-25 74.2 0 8 2011-08-25 74.1 0 9 2026-08-25 73.6 0 10 2021-08-25 73.5 0 11 2013-08-25 73.4 0 - 2012-08-25 73.4 0 - 2005-08-25 73.4 0 12 2006-08-25 73.3 0 13 2018-08-25 73.2 0 - 2015-08-25 73.2 0 - 2008-08-25 73.2 0 - 1994-08-25 73.2 0 14 2002-08-25 73.1 0 - 1995-08-25 73.1 0 - 1991-08-25 73.1 0 - 1966-08-25 73.1 0 15 1980-08-25 72.9 0 16 1988-08-25 72.8 0 17 2023-08-25 72.6 0 - 1969-08-25 72.6 0 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 4 103.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 5 102.0 2025-07-30 through 2025-07-30 - 102.0 2022-07-25 through 2022-07-25 - 102.0 2013-07-19 through 2013-07-19 - 102.0 2005-08-13 through 2005-08-13 - 102.0 1999-07-18 through 1999-07-18 - 102.0 1999-07-06 through 1999-07-06 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of May Maximum TemperatureClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 100 0 2 2022 96 0 - 2016 96 0 - 2013 96 0 - 1996 96 4 6 2017 95 0 - 2010 95 2 - 2007 95 0 - 2001 95 0 Chris numbers can be made to show anything, the point is this summer doesn't hold a candle to any of the ones I mentioned, not even last summer, let alone 2010, 2005, 2002, 1999, 1995, 1993, 1991, 1988, 1983, 1980 and those are 10 just off the top of my head that were much hotter. Yes we had an extremely hot 4 day period so this summer was like a much lesser version of 1966. 1966 also had a three day 100 plus streak at JFK but each of those days was hotter not to mention heat waves were much longer back then. Our summer ended after July 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 23 minutes ago Share Posted 23 minutes ago 7 hours ago, SACRUS said: Atlantic heating up and next storm formation incresing It was a cherry yesterday. Lots of shear, dust out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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