Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Some good news! Average temps have maxed out and we start trending downward again! 

Upcoming days look like pure chamber of commerce weather. One day of raised dew points and right back to it. Not much sweating this summer.

[kdxken]

9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Essentially. Near the old dog track. We’ll take what we can get, it’s been dry 

And there goes Rusty!

[kdxken]

Hartford plus 1.2 for the month. Doesn't seem like that would be the hottest ever???

[BrianW]

Just incredible rain here this month. Just standing water and mushrooms everywhere. 

2nd wettest July at BDR with 9.03 inches. 

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

1.06 yesterday at a nearby PWS. I'm fine with that.  No need for flooding.

[Damage In Tolland]

So dark this morning. Super thick clouds. Depressing . Wonder if there’s also a layer of smoke. . This is like winter darkness 

[dendrite]

Got muggy overnight. Some rain would be nice. 

[tunafish]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Got muggy overnight. Some rain would be nice. 

I'm at 0.53" for the month, including yesterday's 0.20.

Would like some rain, but June was AN so can't complain too much.

[SJonesWX]

i feel like I am living in a swamp like TBlizz, it is very soupy outside

[512high]

72/71

[SouthCoastMA]

1.62", more than enough

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

0.50” in the past 24 hours.   Helps.  
today is starting out gross

[Cyclone-68]

I heard thunder and saw a flash of lightning yesterday afternoon. By my table of expectations that’s a win for me

[BrianW]

[Brian5671]

Havent said this in a couple years but no more rain for awhile please-10 inches+ this month here with 9 days to go

[Go Kart Mozart]

C'mon Sun, heat that ground!

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, BrianW said:

Just incredible rain here this month. Just standing water and mushrooms everywhere. 

2nd wettest July at BDR with 9.03 inches. 

 

Do you know what our annual average is?

[Torch Tiger]

2% tor hatch for ME today

...New England...
   A shortwave trough/moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be
   favorably timed with diurnal destabilization during the afternoon,
   particularly for New Hampshire into Maine. As the cold front
   progresses eastward, scattered storms are expected to develop.
   Effective shear of 30-40 kt and strong upper-level winds will
   support the possibility of some supercells aside from organized
   multicells. Damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a
   tornado are all possible this afternoon until around sunset.

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Thanks.  That's the challenge, is there systemic bias in either direction enough to make it statistically significant, or does it all work out in the end?  And then we have the notion that precision always equals accuracy!  One line I will always recall, "we have very good models today that can give very precise-looking output that can be precisely wrong!"

I saw Fox Brook in the HYDCAR text product.  They don't give any more info for stations in the decode format at least.

 

The forester with whom we contracted in 2011 for forest inventory and modeling once commented, "All models are wrong, but some are useful."

When Maine Public Lands contracted an inventory in 1999 (different contractor), the DOD had yet to remove the GPS scramble for non-military users.  We had the foresters run their GPS units for 30 minutes on both the first and last of the 12-point cruise lines, with the goal of having the hundreds of scrambled hits averaging close to true location.  We assumed the hits were truly random rather than biased.

[powderfreak]

Another nice day in Vermont, under that Mount Mansfield glacier… the fabled Picnic Table Icesheet.

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, 512high said:

72/71

Do you know what we got for rain?

[Lava Rock]

44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Another nice day in Vermont, under that Mount Mansfield glacier… the fabled Picnic Table Icesheet.

they must get some avalanches around there, no?

[kdxken]

 

[weatherwiz]

Not really sure how you can attribute this to ENSO. I mean there are just synoptic fronts moving through and getting heavy rains from the warm front and then scattered convection out ahead of the cold front. Unless there is an argument these are more common during summers with a developing EL Nino but these setups aren't uncommon during the summer months.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5.16 on the month here. Much needed, could definitely use more though. Ponds and streams are low.

Wonder what kind of deficit we are running year to date 

[weatherwiz]

Certainly may see a few localized strong storms east of the river today 

[CT Valley Snowman]

21 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

I'm fine with 4.5" here.  No need for high water table/basement flooding issues.  

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not really sure how you can attribute this to ENSO. I mean there are just synoptic fronts moving through and getting heavy rains from the warm front and then scattered convection out ahead of the cold front. Unless there is an argument these are more common during summers with a developing EL Nino but these setups aren't uncommon during the summer months.

Inclined to agree with skepticism there.   We have been dealing with this since last October...  a basal trough that at times we see ridging, but we return to this footprint since prior to the ENSO switch onset. 

Most importantly, warm(cool) ENSO onset in summer isn't triggering much in the hemisphere.  The hemispheric/seasonal cooling from N latitudes establishes improving gradient in autumn -that is when that forcing commences.  To early. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Inclined to agree with skepticism there.   We have been dealing with this since last October...  a basal trough that at times we see ridging, but we return to this footprint since prior to the ENSO switch onset. 

Most importantly, warm(cool) ENSO onset in summer isn't triggering much in the hemisphere.  The hemispheric/seasonal cooling from N latitudes establishes improving gradient is autumn -that is when that forcing commences.  To early. 

I could see more of an argument if we were seeing something more anomalous like a barrage of like cutoff lows or something along the lines of a tendency for omega-block patterns (just using these as random examples) but this recent stretch of rains has been the product of slow moving frontal systems and warm front progression...kind of par of the course for mid-summer.  

[dendrite]

2 straight summers of webbed fists punching my nuts. Can’t wait for my 0.01”