July 2026

[EasternLI]

House shaking thunder and people are still shooting off fireworks 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Watching fireworks and lightning was something else. Rain missed a mile to my north. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Watching fireworks and lightning was something else. Rain missed a mile to my north. 

Yes was sick. Lighting bolts and fireworks 

[Dan76]

Lighting over the ocean better than fireworks.

[lee59]

0.0 my rain so far for the last 2 days

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Got skunked today which is good. Strong storms went north and south of me. 

I'm glad it held off until 10pm so we were able to get the fireworks in, but very annoyed seeing the heavy rain missing to the south. Only a little shower here so far. I am desperate for rain for my vegetable garden. Still some activity to the west, so I'm still hoping to get something tonight. 

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes was sick. Lighting bolts and fireworks 

Was watching morons shoot off fireworks into the strong winds and they were getting blown sideways 

[winterwarlock]

Another miss..just a bit of light rain as storm scooted to south

[psv88]

17k without power now. Connecticut got crushed 

[EasternLI]

This Suffolk storm was far more robust than hi res models had it. The models show the stuff to the west swing through during the overnight. So there probably will be more a little later.

[psv88]

Suffolk gets these sneaky severe storms every summer. Usually not forecasted. They drop down from the sound and crush 

[winterwx21]

Missed the heavy storms but thankfully some decent rain moving in now. Looks like high end moderate rain. Should get at least a quarter inch from this. 

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

It felt like a microburst in Coram. Branches down all over the place.

That looked like a different cell that developed right over you

guys 

[SACRUS]

 

Today's Highs:


ACY: 106\
BLM: 101
PHL: 101
New Brnswck: 100
JFK: 100
EWR: 99
TTN: 98
LGA: 97
TEB: 97
ISP: 96

NYC: 94
 

[Brasiluvsnow]

well all the prayers paid off as we had to take 2 breaks but we were able to get the the party and the fireworks in,,,,, that said Northern New City lost power for a while and congers also,,,,,,that first batch of storms passed thru with some serious wind that brought trees and branches down,,,,,,,afterwards the wind never got crazy here and the rain for the most part held off,,,,,I hope everyone has their power back ,,,Happy 4th All

[TheClimateChanger]

Happy Independence Day all! Some thoughts on this holiday evening:

 

 

[jm1220]

After the rain we were socked in fog in Chicago. I think the city did its fireworks show but you couldn't see it and could barely hear it. Sad/ridiculous. Should've been postponed.

[winterwx21]

Only 0.18" here tonight. Better than nothing but I hope we have better luck tomorrow. HRRR did a good job with the timing of tonight's rain, and I see the 0z run is showing a repeat tomorrow with our area getting hit around 10pm. I'm hoping to have better luck with heavy rain tomorrow night. If not I know it looks like a pretty good soaking on Monday. I am desperate for a good amount of rain -- hopefully this dry stretch is about to end. 

[TriPol]

Thank god this heatwave is over. This was incredibly intolerable. 

[winterwarlock]

What happened to the njweather.org site

[bluewave]

This is just like the old times when we get a deluge following record heat. The current heavy rain flash flood potential looks like it could be the most significant event here since the last ones in August 2024 and July 2023.

Widespread 2-4” and localized  pockets over 5”+ where the best training set up. This is also the most juiced that we have seen the SPC HREF since then.

This will be the first chance NYC and some other spots see a wetter than average month since way back in May 2025. 

The heat over the next 10 days will shift to the West with the potential for over a 600 dm ridge. 

In the past when we have had 103°+ major heatwaves and heavy rains, the maximum temperatures remained the highest of the summer. So hopefully this will turn out to be the highest temperatures which reached 105°-106°of the entire summer.

While this doesn’t rule out more 95° to around 100° heat, the patterns in the past haven’t been able to follow up with as much heat in the  following extreme heat to very wet. 
 

 

[FPizz]

.14"

[donsutherland1]

As had likely been the case during the record June 2025 heatwave, Central Park likely had two 100° or above days during the most recent heatwave. Only one such day was recorded due to Central Park's well-documented tree overgrowth. Moreover, July 3, 2026 was likely one of Central Park's hottest days on record, as was the case at surrounding sites: JFK Airport: 102°; LaGuardia Airport: 104°; and, Newark: 105°.

As noted previously in this thread, I would run the statistical analysis based on the most recent 30-year period prior to the issue of tree overgrowth. The numbers are below.

Since 2010, numerous summer records have been affected by the tree overgrowth. Based on the statistical calculation, below are the summer records that would likely have been tied or broken without the tree overgrowth issue:

June 8 — 2011— Calculated 97, record 95, record year(s): 1933
June 9 — 2011— Calculated 99, record 97, record year(s): 1933
June 11 — 2026— Calculated 97, record 95, record year(s): 1973
June 12 — 2026— Calculated 97, record 93, record year(s): 1933, 1973, 2017
June 13 — 2017— Calculated 100, record 96, record year(s): 1961
June 20 — 2012— Calculated 98, record 98, record year(s): 1923
June 21 — 2012— Calculated 99, record 97, record year(s): 1953, 1988
June 23 — 2025— Calculated 97, record 96, record year(s): 1888, 2025
June 24 — 2025— Calculated 102, record 99, record year(s): 2025 ***New June Monthly Record***
June 25 — 2025— Calculated 100, record 99, record year(s): 1943, 1952
June 28 — 2010— Calculated 97, record 96, record year(s): 1969, 1991
June 30 — 2021— Calculated 100, record 99, record year(s): 1964
July 2 — 2026— Calculated 104, record 100, record year(s): 1901, 1966, 2026
July 7 — 2010— Calculated 101, record 100, record year(s): 2010
July 18 — 2012— Calculated 102, record 101, record year(s): 1953
July 22 — 2011— Calculated 106, record 104, record year(s): 2011 ***Tied All-time Record***
July 23 — 2011— Calculated 101, record 100, record year(s): 2011
July 24 — 2022— Calculated 100, record 97, record year(s): 1999, 2010
July 25 — 2025— Calculated 99, record 97, record year(s): 1999
July 29 — 2025— Calculated 100, record 99, record year(s): 1949
July 30 — 2025— Calculated 99, record 98, record year(s): 1917, 1933, 1940, 1988
August 12 — 2016— Calculated 97, record 97, record year(s): 1944
August 12 — 2021— Calculated 97, record 97, record year(s): 1944
August 25 — 2021— Calculated 95, record 95, record year(s): 1948

In sum, the tree overgrowth has already affected a growing number of records. 

[qg_omega]

8 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Happy Independence Day all! Some thoughts on this holiday evening:

 

 

It’s crazy record warmth during an Super Nino

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s crazy record warmth during an Super Nino

The Euro update from a few minutes ago now has the strongest traditional ONI on record near +3.8 to +3.9. 

 

June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

All-Time June SST records in bold

YR   MON  NINO1+2  ANOM   NINO3    ANOM   NINO4    ANOM   NINO3.4  ANOM

2026   6   25.94    2.82   28.33    1.71   30.19    1.22   29.17    1.44

2023   6   25.63    2.50   27.88    1.26   29.55    0.58   28.57    0.84

2015   6   25.32    2.19   28.07    1.45   29.88    0.92   28.90    1.18

1997   6   26.12    3.00   28.13    1.51   29.23    0.26   28.82    1.09

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is just like the old times when we get a deluge following record heat. The current heavy rain flash flood potential looks like it could be the most significant event here since the last ones in August 2024 and July 2023.

Widespread 2-4” and localized  pockets over 5”+ where the best training set up. This is also the most juiced that we have seen the SPC HREF since then.

This will be the first chance NYC and some other spots see a wetter than average month since way back in May 2025. 

The heat over the next 10 days will shift to the West with the potential for over a 600 dm ridge. 

In the past when we have had 103°+ major heatwaves and heavy rains, the maximum temperatures remained the highest of the summer. So hopefully this will turn out to be the highest temperatures which reached 105°-106°of the entire summer.

While this doesn’t rule out more 95° to around 100° heat, the patterns in the past haven’t been able to follow up with as much heat in the  following extreme heat to very wet. 
 

 

Is that accurate. That's 10"+ in central NJ over the next 2 days

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is that accurate. That's 10"+ in central NJ over the next 2 days

Seems overdone but going to be some local 5” totals in spots I think.  How bad any flooding might be will depend on rainfall rates / training.  

[TheClimateChanger]

58 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As had likely been the case during the record June 2025 heatwave, Central Park likely had two 100° or above days during the most recent heatwave. Only one such day was recorded due to Central Park's well-documented tree overgrowth. Moreover, July 3, 2026 was likely one of Central Park's hottest days on record, as was the case at surrounding sites: JFK Airport: 102°; LaGuardia Airport: 104°; and, Newark: 105°.

As noted previously in this thread, I would run the statistical analysis based on the most recent 30-year period prior to the issue of tree overgrowth. The numbers are below.

Since 2010, numerous summer records have been affected by the tree overgrowth. Based on the statistical calculation, below are the summer records that would likely have been tied or broken without the tree overgrowth issue:

June 8 — 2011— Calculated 97, record 95, record year(s): 1933
June 9 — 2011— Calculated 99, record 97, record year(s): 1933
June 11 — 2026— Calculated 97, record 95, record year(s): 1973
June 12 — 2026— Calculated 97, record 93, record year(s): 1933, 1973, 2017
June 13 — 2017— Calculated 100, record 96, record year(s): 1961
June 20 — 2012— Calculated 98, record 98, record year(s): 1923
June 21 — 2012— Calculated 99, record 97, record year(s): 1953, 1988
June 23 — 2025— Calculated 97, record 96, record year(s): 1888, 2025
June 24 — 2025— Calculated 102, record 99, record year(s): 2025 ***New June Monthly Record***
June 25 — 2025— Calculated 100, record 99, record year(s): 1943, 1952
June 28 — 2010— Calculated 97, record 96, record year(s): 1969, 1991
June 30 — 2021— Calculated 100, record 99, record year(s): 1964
July 2 — 2026— Calculated 104, record 100, record year(s): 1901, 1966, 2026
July 7 — 2010— Calculated 101, record 100, record year(s): 2010
July 18 — 2012— Calculated 102, record 101, record year(s): 1953
July 22 — 2011— Calculated 106, record 104, record year(s): 2011 ***Tied All-time Record***
July 23 — 2011— Calculated 101, record 100, record year(s): 2011
July 24 — 2022— Calculated 100, record 97, record year(s): 1999, 2010
July 25 — 2025— Calculated 99, record 97, record year(s): 1999
July 29 — 2025— Calculated 100, record 99, record year(s): 1949
July 30 — 2025— Calculated 99, record 98, record year(s): 1917, 1933, 1940, 1988
August 12 — 2016— Calculated 97, record 97, record year(s): 1944
August 12 — 2021— Calculated 97, record 97, record year(s): 1944
August 25 — 2021— Calculated 95, record 95, record year(s): 1948

In sum, the tree overgrowth has already affected a growing number of records. 

Don, rankings for average high temperature for the season to date (June 1 to July 4). One of these is certainly not like the others - and it's not because of a longer period of record.

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Seems overdone but going to be some local 5” totals in spots I think.  How bad any flooding might be will depend on rainfall rates / training.  

This may be similar to last July 14 , 2025 T-storms/Heavy Rains in Central NJ which delivered over 5+ inches - than the rest of the summer was very dry

[SACRUS]

78 / 72 some breaks of sun.  The strong / record heat wanes back south and a hung up boundary  front remains over / nearby through Wed/Thu with 1 - 3+ inches of rain in localized areas where  training rain. Mon-Tue the worst/wettest days with Wed/THu some longer breaks and perhaps stretches of sun.  Wed-Fri warmup with straggler 90 in the hottest areas. Ridge in the west balloons and expands east into the plains 7/7 - 7/14 ,  heats pushes east.  Overall warmer 7/15 - beyond with next chance of stretch of heat with core of the storngest heat west and south but approaching the area later in the month.