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13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Got skunked today which is good. Strong storms went north and south of me. 

I'm glad it held off until 10pm so we were able to get the fireworks in, but very annoyed seeing the heavy rain missing to the south. Only a little shower here so far. I am desperate for rain for my vegetable garden. Still some activity to the west, so I'm still hoping to get something tonight. 

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well all the prayers paid off as we had to take 2 breaks but we were able to get the the party and the fireworks in,,,,, that said Northern New City lost power for a while and congers also,,,,,,that first batch of storms passed thru with some serious wind that brought trees and branches down,,,,,,,afterwards the wind never got crazy here and the rain for the most part held off,,,,,I hope everyone has their power back ,,,Happy 4th All

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Only 0.18" here tonight. Better than nothing but I hope we have better luck tomorrow. HRRR did a good job with the timing of tonight's rain, and I see the 0z run is showing a repeat tomorrow with our area getting hit around 10pm. I'm hoping to have better luck with heavy rain tomorrow night. If not I know it looks like a pretty good soaking on Monday. I am desperate for a good amount of rain -- hopefully this dry stretch is about to end. 

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This is just like the old times when we get a deluge following record heat. The current heavy rain flash flood potential looks like it could be the most significant event here since the last ones in August 2024 and July 2023.

Widespread 2-4” and localized  pockets over 5”+ where the best training set up. This is also the most juiced that we have seen the SPC HREF since then.

This will be the first chance NYC and some other spots see a wetter than average month since way back in May 2025. 

The heat over the next 10 days will shift to the West with the potential for over a 600 dm ridge. 

In the past when we have had 103°+ major heatwaves and heavy rains, the maximum temperatures remained the highest of the summer. So hopefully this will turn out to be the highest temperatures which reached 105°-106°of the entire summer.

While this doesn’t rule out more 95° to around 100° heat, the patterns in the past haven’t been able to follow up with as much heat in the  following extreme heat to very wet. 
 

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IMG_6872.thumb.webp.0b60b919ddf3700365b80306bf2101fb.webp

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As had likely been the case during the record June 2025 heatwave, Central Park likely had two 100° or above days during the most recent heatwave. Only one such day was recorded due to Central Park's well-documented tree overgrowth. Moreover, July 3, 2026 was likely one of Central Park's hottest days on record, as was the case at surrounding sites: JFK Airport: 102°; LaGuardia Airport: 104°; and, Newark: 105°.

As noted previously in this thread, I would run the statistical analysis based on the most recent 30-year period prior to the issue of tree overgrowth. The numbers are below.

image.png.ed5b6f9e125ff2c109070011e24c095a.png

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