2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX mentioned it

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms are possible through this
evening, along with a local flash flood risk.

MCV over central PA and cold front approaching from NW PA (and
general height falls within the upper trough) will serve as
forcing to continue the development of widespread showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Shear will be sufficient for
supercells, but cluster and bowing segments may eventually
dominate, presenting a risk of damaging winds. Discrete storms
will have potential for hail as well. A tornado threat may
evolve later this afternoon/early evening as a low level jet
pivots into the area and the trough takes on a negative tilt.
The axis of storms will likely be closer to the I-95 corridor by
this time, where winds could also be backed a little more closer
to the bay. At the moment, this threat appears a little more
isolated and uncertain, but discussion was had with SPC that
some areas could be upgraded to a Tornado Watch should discrete
storm modes dominate. The forcing features listed above could
also lead to some upscale growth or training as the storms get
closer to the bay. This might lead to a few instances of flash
flooding, especially from Baltimore to the northeast, as
precipitable water values approach 2 inches. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for this area. Thunderstorms will likely clear
off to the east by 10 PM, although there may be a few lingering
showers, especially along the Alleghenies.

[frd]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026

TORNADO WATCH 529 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC001-003-005-290200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0529.260728T2020Z-260729T0200Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE          SUSSEX
$$

[yoda]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
429 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Warren County in northwestern Virginia...
  Northeastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia...
  West central Fauquier County in northern Virginia...

* Until 500 PM EDT.

* At 429 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Front Royal, moving southeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Hume around 435 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Karo,
Glen Echo, Huntly, Arco, Riverton, Hackleys Crossroads, Flint Hill,
Cresthill, Chester Gap, and Orlean.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

[frd]

Cells forming ahead of the main line NW of DC. 

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
429 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Warren County in northwestern Virginia...
  Northeastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia...
  West central Fauquier County in northern Virginia...

* Until 500 PM EDT.

* At 429 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Front Royal, moving southeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Hume around 435 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Karo,
Glen Echo, Huntly, Arco, Riverton, Hackleys Crossroads, Flint Hill,
Cresthill, Chester Gap, and Orlean.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

rotation seems pretyy significant on radarscope.... KDOX was even picking it up, and appears to be having a lightning surge as well. 

[Kmlwx]

LWX going with the mega warnings

[frd]

The complex of storms including the main line and supercells are pinwheeling around the low pressure area North of us. Could get ugly.   

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
436 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Carroll County in north central Maryland...
  Howard County in central Maryland...
  Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  Frederick County in north central Maryland...
  Western Baltimore County in northern Maryland...
  Northern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 436 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Littlestown to Harry Grove Stadium to near
  Purcellville, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Columbia, Germantown, Frederick, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Leesburg,
  Olney, Pikesville, Cockeysville, Westminster, Damascus, Lansdowne,
  Thurmont, Poolesville, Emmitsburg, Harry Grove Stadium, Historic
  Ellicott City, Ellicott City, Aspen Hill, and Potomac.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for northern,
central and north central Maryland.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7658 3922 7677 3903 7724 3906 7732
      3913 7783 3932 7772 3933 7768 3948 7762
      3972 7730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 290DEG 30KT 3969 7710 3940 7740 3917 7770

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

[yoda]

---

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
440 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VAC107-282115-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0320.000000T0000Z-260728T2115Z/
Loudoun VA-
440 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY...

At 440 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Boonsboro to near Harpers Ferry to near Bluemont,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Purcellville, Round Hill, Bluemont, Lovettsville, Hamilton,
Hillsboro, Paeonian Springs, Waterford, Neersville, Philomont,
Lincoln, Hughesville, and Taylorstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 7762 3930 7757 3926 7753 3904 7767
      3908 7786 3924 7777 3926 7777 3926 7776
      3929 7775 3932 7772 3932 7767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 270DEG 18KT 3945 7764 3929 7771 3919 7784

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

[MDphotog]

Okay, I can't ever recall seeing a line of storms form perpendicular to the main line and almost connect to it.  That is a very odd radar to see out near Frederick.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, MDphotog said:

Okay, I can't ever recall seeing a line of storms form perpendicular to the main line and almost connect to it.  That is a very odd radar to see out near Frederick.

Need to watch that junction point for tornado risk 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

LWX going with the mega warnings

Mega warnings?

[yoda]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Mega warnings?

He means like when there are 10 counties in the warning

[DanTheMan]

Im about to get clocked. Just tossed the cat in the basement ahead of me

[yoda]

Spotter reported golf ball sized hail in Clarke County at 418pm

[Amped]

Wierd echo moving west on lwx south of Annapolis. Gotta be either range folded, or a spacex rocket failure.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, DanTheMan said:

Im about to get clocked. Just tossed the cat in the basement ahead of me

I read this and immediately heard the classic chaotic *reowwwwwww!* Haha

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Wierd echo moving west on lwx south of Annapolis. Gotta be either range folded, or a spacex rocket failure.

That always shows up during precipitation/storms

[Roger Ramjet]

Powers out and I have trees down. Lucklly not on the house.

[somecallmetim]

You can see the potential DC split fail scenario in the current radar.

[mattie g]

Definite split potential IMBY...

[NorthArlington101]

You can see the potential DC split fail scenario in the current radar.

What’s new. One of the most boring summer storm seasons in the Beltway I can recall. Bring on the heartbreaking winter misses.

[AlexD1990]

This has to be producing a waterspout, right?

[dailylurker]

Best radar I've seen in a long time for my area, and most of the metro area. LFG!

[Chinook]

Washington DC severe weather magnet!

[87storms]

Nothing severe here, but now wrapping up the 2nd round of back to back storm cells which have included downpours...the 2nd round being gustier.  Frederick has performed really well this summer in the rain department.

[mappy]

Much needed rain, lot of lightning. 

[WxUSAF]

Thunder in the distance. Hoping I can grill my brats before the storm starts lol

[SnowenOutThere]

The Fairfax county split is pretty pronounced today. Hoping the storms near Winchester can rotate in? 

[WxUSAF]

Baltimore and Harford county part of the line is bowing out