2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

Watch box out to our north, $20 says it's going to be multiple watches.

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I like that implies we will get upstream storms, so at the very least we should get a nice rainy/thundery evening from whatever remnants can make it our way. Sort of similar to our last setup and getting the MCS from WV. 

      Sort of.  That day involved some local storms that initiated followed by the main band along the forcing arriving from the northwest during the evening hours.   This looks to be a line forming just to our northwest during the early/mid afternoon and rolling through at dinner time before making a quick exit.   There is some curvature in the hodographs, so the tornado threat is definitely non-zero, although the forcing may result in a more linear structure.

       The box will go up for northern sections first, because there is good cam agreement on an initial wave of storms for northeast MD/PA/NJ earlier this afternoon.

[high risk]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch box out to our north, $20 says it's going to be multiple watches.

    You're not exactly going out on a limb with that prediction....  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

    You're not exactly going out on a limb with that prediction....  

I only make the sure bets. Vegas can't have all the fun.

[SolidIcewx]

Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...northern/central Virginia...and southern Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 281804Z - 282000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon. Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching cold front across West Virginia, mostly sunny skies across portions of northern/central Virginia has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s. Steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE are noted across the region as a result. Strong mid-level flow is supporting deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Flow is generally perpendicular to the front, which may support a mix of clusters and supercell structures. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support potential for downward momentum transfer and damaging wind. With any supercell structures that can maintain, large hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible. More modest low-level shear may somewhat limit the tornado potential initially, though the low-level jet may increase into the late afternoon. A watch will be needed soon to cover this potential.