Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[300 square feet]

First flakes mixing in the rain in Reston. 35/35

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Unless you bought the NAM run with almost half a foot on the ground by 4 pm. Im out here shoveling puddles.

I never buy the NAM for any reason. NAMNest thermals and sometimes the QPF, but otherwise, the 12km parent I ignore almost exclusively. 

 

           The other problem is that the "total snowfall" maps are NOT predictions of what the NAM thinks will be on the ground.      When the model's hydrometeors are not liquid (i.e. snow or sleet) as they reach the surface, the amount of liquid goes into a water equivalent bucket.  That is what these sites grab and then apply either a 10:1 or Kuchera ratio.    What the model thinks will be on the ground is the snow depth product.   Unfortunately, that tends to run low in events like these we we've had a warm couple of days prior to the onset.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

A few big flakes mixing back in, maybe a little can cool things off a bit soon. 

[peribonca]

Started to mix! Colonial Beach 37F

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

18z HRRR has the inverted trough axis fractionally east.  I clearly approve of the location.

Inching closer to being inside the beltway, bring it

[MN Transplant]

18z HRRR, 6hr precip 5pm-11pm

[SnowenOutThere]

Assuming all the high reflectivity around the Dulles radar is snow melting then snow is in the air a mere 400 feet above me. 

[ge0]

back to snow again. huge flakes. 35.2

[clskinsfan]

17 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

Yep, just posted in our local thread. It's puking snow, roads are caving, local businesses are closing earlier than planned 

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/17NFg8SHtz/

 

My dog is PISSED 

What's wild is it is rain in OC right now. They will flip at some point. But the temperature variances throughout the Mid Atlantic is kind of wild right now. 

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Inching closer to being inside the beltway, bring it

We were all joking about DCA reporting a low total, now watch them get plastered.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

18z HRRR, 6hr precip 5pm-11pm

Not the storm we all dreamed of but it’s the storm we’re getting lol.  Hopefully everything at least gets to good jeb walking conditions. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

We were all joking about DCA reporting a low total, now watch them get plastered.

I think the IVT will at the least add 2-4” hgr east. Question is where does it sit for a few hours and dump 1-2” rates for 3 hrs. 

[EHoffman]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

18z HRRR, 6hr precip 5pm-11pm

Actually gets me kinda excited.  Norlun trough really the only way we score inside the beltway IMO.  Been inching east with every run.

[AlexD1990]

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Roads are caving in Rehoboth.

Lol I drive that road every day coming home from work

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

What's wild is it is rain in OC right now. They will flip at some point. But the temperature variances throughout the Mid Atlantic is kind of wild right now. 

Just goes to show the power of heavy rates

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I think the IVT will at the least add 2-4” hgr east. Question is where does it sit for a few hours and dump 1-2” rates for 3 hrs. 

Rap and Hrrr keep moving it east each run. Likes eastern Frederick County now south eastward.

[nw baltimore wx]

Heavier rates are approaching from my southeast now.  Things might look differently here in an hour or so.  

[rjvanals]

Snow now 18 stories above downtown Rockville (approximately 650 feet) 

[Nomz]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

18z HRRR, 6hr precip 5pm-11pm

I'll take the consolation prize, I guess.

[SnowenOutThere]

In the past hour or so temps have dropped into the upper 35s and winds have shifted from due east to now solidly northeast. Solar radiation is also beginning to decrease. I expect areas near where I am to switch to snow within the hour or so. 

[jayyy]

Rates are certainly everything with this one so far. Went from 37 and rain to 35.5 and heavy snow within the matter of minutes up here. Returns look insane from Cape’s area to up this way along the coast.

Good luck everyone! Not going to inundate yall with my chase OBS, but I hope everyone cashes in at least a bit!

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Rap and Hrrr keep moving it east each run. Likes eastern Frederick County now south eastward.

Even if right, the hrrr is basically different every run. 
@MillvilleWx I’m surprised there’s no talk of the anemic qpf field given this low. Bombed out too hard? No actual gulf fetch? Seeing some things that say locally this will still do its thing with crazy fgen and good dynamics… but on a broader scale this low isn’t producing the textbook shield we’d see.

[Grothar of Herndon]

38/35

80/20 Rain/snow mix 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Grothar of Herndon said:

38/35

80/20 Rain/snow mix 

All rain where I am but the rain itself is probably an 80% liquid and 20% solid type concoction. 

[Herb@MAWS]

About 1/4” Columbia rainfall so far. May the boredom end quickly. 

[* shine *]

Roads are caving Camden, DE

[Bubbler86]

@DDweatherman@Chris78

Came back home through Pen Mar Park again and they have 1/2-1" now on the grass.  Some roofs white.  But once you go down 100 feet or so, there is nothing....the snow turns into rain. 

[midatlanticweather]

Cameras on 511de.org are fun to look at! Huge flakes and coated everywhere on most! 

 

[ravensrule]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
206 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

MDZ005-006-008-011-014-017-018-505>508-230315-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/
Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-
St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-
Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
206 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  10 inches. Locally higher amounts around a foot are possible in
  northeast Maryland. Northwest winds gusting between 30 and 45 mph
  overnight through Monday. Rain or a rain and snow mix will change
  to snow between 4 PM and 6 PM late this afternoon and evening. The
  steadiest snow will continue through tonight before tapering off
  Monday.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northern,
  and southern Maryland.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

 

[ravensrule]

They won’t back down, it’s strange. 

[NorthArlington101]

18z HRRR, 6hr precip 5pm-11pm

This one is for us. I can feeeel it