“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[tiger_deF]

Getting PTSD from the last coastal we were tracking, one serious east shift from the next set of model suites could kill this outside of far east SNE. Crossing my fingers, I'm liking that this is starting from a point farther to the North

[NeonPeon]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Having flashbacks to Juno . Just kept coming NW starting day 5

That´s the most amount of downed trees I´ve seen with a winter storm. Everything was absolutely caked.

[ORH_wxman]

Def more members inside the BM now on 18z EPS. I think 00z is going to be a big run....can't have another regression back east like last night's runs. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

 Could only go up on the euro. I don’t think that was a meaningful move 

[Masswx]

I swear I’ve never seen a good 0z trend in my life 

[vortex95]

40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

huge jump west

The 18z ECMWF AI 500 is *much* better than previous runs, and in-line w/ the other global models.  For some reason through 12z, the ECMWF 500 had been MEH and wishy-washy, as if it could not decide what to do.  The 500 trough tried to go negative, then just "gave up," and opened up into a positively-tilted POC.

Now, it does the "full swing" for the 500 trough, initially positive 270 in the Midwest, and goes full 180 to negative 90 S of New England, w/ that more classic E-W oval shape 500 cut-off we all LUV to see!

The 18z GFS puts a 28" max in Delmarva, and given what it shows w/ explosive deepening just E, that is not unreasonable as to how the sfc low evolves.  It tries to go OTS at first, but the upper support moving in "yanks" it back big time and you get a 6 hr deepening of 18 mb!  That is nuts and you are easily going to see sustained 65 kt sfc winds near the Delmarva in strong cross-isallobaric flow and crazy pcpn rates in the GFS scenario.

As for our area, the 925-500 circulations on the global models all seem to show enough closed contours to the NW that at least eastern sections of SNE should do well.  Not all up to CoastalWx's standards, but I'll let him rely on "TICKS N" for subsequent runs!  LOL.

Also, recall the big event last month that showed the 500 cutting way S over NC, and where did that end up?  So I wonder about the far S position of 500 trough the models have currently.

The storm will be deeply occluded well S of us, so despite being quite tight in pcpn gradient over the Mid-Atlantic, it should expand in size as it pulls ENE.  Deep occlusions can be tricky as the precip gets more banded and SNE will not be catching the storm's max deepening for the really wild pcpn rates.  That may not matter in the end, but food for thought.

This is really a Miller A.  Not a Gulf wave, but there is no primary low to redevelop, not in the topographic sense.  The center does appear to jump offshore, but it jumps NW, not E or SE!  That's more due to more an instant occlusion process than anything else.
 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Undeniable trend

Trend to a closer miss.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 Could only go up on the euro. I don’t think that was a meaningful move 

what the hell are you talking about.. that was a big shift 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Masswx said:

I swear I’ve never seen a good 0z trend in my life 

maybe your dad will let you stay up late tonight 

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some of the earlier runs reminded me of Juno.

CMC Juno

CMC today 

[8611Blizz]

The back pedaling for the mets is going to be something to behold if this trend has legs...

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

That´s the most amount of downed trees I´ve seen with a winter storm. Everything was absolutely caked.

The GHG tree devastation CoastalWx always talks about???

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 Could only go up on the euro. I don’t think that was a meaningful move 

And Skynet went southeast so…

[moneypitmike]

44 minutes ago, dryslot said:

In a normal season whenever the last time that was I would say this is right where we want it at day 5.

 

I'm really not seeing any mechanism to get this north enough to do anything up here.  Mattapoisett might be fun though.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def more members inside the BM now on 18z EPS. I think 00z is going to be a big run....can't have another regression back east like last night's runs. 

Definitely some left leaning members in there. 

[Masswx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

maybe your dad will let you stay up late tonight 

Usually see the gfs but not euro 

[dryslot]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

 

I'm really not seeing any mechanism to get this north enough to do anything up here.  Mattapoisett might be fun though.

There may not be any mechanism other then a cape scraper period.

[Masswx]

0 z euro always crushes my spirits anyways 

[dryslot]

Just now, Masswx said:

Usually see the gfs but not euro 

Isn't it school vacation week?

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

what the hell are you talking about.. that was a big shift 

Stop cheering him up. He has to whine and kvetch to entice this closer.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

That´s the most amount of downed trees I´ve seen with a winter storm. Everything was absolutely caked.

That was Feb 2013

[cleetussnow]

Models today be like 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Masswx said:

0 z euro always crushes my spirits anyways 

I think Tblizz is your Dad. Need to discuss with wife. 

[NeonPeon]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was Feb 2013

You're right. Just checked my photos and it's tree after tree after tree on power lines morning of Feb 9 2013.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Masswx said:

0 z euro always crushes my spirits anyways 

Tell dad your staying up whether he likes it or not, And if he doesn't go tell mom dads being mean.

[Masswx]

He said no

[Masswx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think Tblizz is your Dad. Need to discuss with wife. 

Maybe I asked the wrong guy to stay up late

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think Tblizz is your Dad. Need to discuss with wife. 

I mean Tflizz does get around…

[JACKASS]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I mean Tflizz does get around…

Well played!

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

You're right. Just checked my photos and it's tree after tree after tree on power lines morning of Feb 9 2013.

Yeah that’s was incredible tree damage. If you did not see it for yourself you wouldn’t believe it. I remember my dad called at like 10 at night asking me what the hell was going on. I had no idea. He actually sounded scared.