“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[TheSnowman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I rather blog for a crack-whore's venereal disease.

Hahahahahahaha!!!    

 

Tell us you Hate dealing with the Mid-Atlantic without telling us Ray.  

[CoastalWx]

In the end that H5 low was able to come

north as the block moved out of the way. 

[RDRY]

Expected a worse outcome from the early 500 MB panels. Shows what I know ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I wasn’t a fan of the evolution though. Looked like it would unravel south.

Yea, the overall trend sucks. ......I mean, you can take your free throw from behind the house and still bank it in off of a garbage can , but it's a lower percentage shot.

[Fozz]

964 near the benchmark on the GFS.

Less than a week out. We need the Euro on board.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Hahahahahahaha!!!    

 

Tell us you Hate dealing with the Mid-Atlantic without telling us Ray.  

Nothing to do with the region or the people, I just have no interest in a storm if it misses my area.

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

With the 500 cut off where it is on the ICON at 120 hr and the sfc low about 100 mi E of ORF, that should be enough for a movement close enough to SNE for sig snow.  The strong vort SW of the cut off is somewhat of a wildcard.  It seems to be rotating around the cut off faster than the upper low itself, so does it continue and go negative as it crosses the coast and you get one large cut off low just S of LI?

The ridge over the Rockies is staying put and not de-amplifying, so that's good.  Downstream the flow is still rather flat, but there are modest 500 height rises S of NS and NFL 108 to 120 hr.

Yeah... god bless all with love and fortune in mens eyes, but there are some that really shouldn't be handed the responsibility of lead off play-by-play game callers.   LOL.    Between hippies and law enforcement, there's gotta be someone else whom by election is a better bearer of that delicate responsibility.  

[Kitz Craver]

Yeah I never wanna set the play by play, just comment on it. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah I never wanna set the play by play, just comment on it. Lol

I suck at it for the most part.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's often correct when it's the lone voice of dissent and sucks.

There is some truth to this. While it’s been mediocre many times this year, it has absolutely sniffed out some stinkers before other models.

I know people don’t want to hear this, but it’s still going to be weighted heavily in any forecast. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There is some truth to this. While it’s been mediocre many times this year, it has absolutely sniffed out some stinkers before other models.

I know people don’t want to hear this, but it’s still going to be weighted heavily in any forecast. 
 

Still not that worried about the LBSW crap...we saw that in the big January event, too....this time the pattern is even less conducive to seeing that.

I'm sure that weathergeek half-wit is making up AI images as we speak depicting tri-state Armageddon....have at it.

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still not that worried about the LBSW crap...we saw that in the big January event, too....this time the pattern is even less conducive to seeing that.

I'm sure that weathergeek half-wit is making up AI images as we speak depicting tri-state Armageddon....have at it.

How about its eastern escape though?

[vortex95]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In the end that H5 low was able to come

north as the block moved out of the way. 

18z GFS is a Weymouth special!

3 contour cut off at 500 (going by standard every 6 dm) w/ a min height min of about 511 dm.  That's nasty.  A large part of New England gets into the closed circulation at 500, which I was concerned about initially b/c it was so tight off the Delmarva.  And the best gradient at 925 ends up covering most of MA/RI/CT and SE NH.   So that should mean solid S+ banding.

Look at the mini-block at 500 initially over James Bay.  That moves w/ the 500 low to the S and ends up S of NFL for excellent downstream s/w ridging.

And look at those 925 and 850 temps.  That's pure powder ratio up!

If you want something to "complain about" (EEYORE CoastalWx will find a way - LOL), the uber crushing is well S over the Delmarva and NJ.  27" max near ACY and look at that rear sfc pressure gradient residence time as the low undergoes RI and sits in place for a period until the 500 support can catch up.  This taken at face value, it's going to be "KRAZEE" for this area w/ sig coastal flooding.  I seem to recall this happened unexpectedly or more than fcst in the Feb 2016 blockbuster, or one of those events in the mid 2010s.  Ocean City was hit hard.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

How about its eastern escape though?

Yes. That is a concern...the disinterest of the EURO camp is an issue. I still hedge in that direction...maybe not cirrus, but not sold on a blizzard.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

18z GFS is a Weymouth special!

3 contour cut off at 500 (going by standard every 6 dm) w/ a min height min of about 511 dm.  That's nasty.  A large part of New England gets into the closed circulation at 500, which I was concerned about initially b/c it was so tight off the Delmarva.  And the best gradient at 925 ends up covering most of MA/RI/CT and SE NH.   So that should mean solid S+ banding.

Look at the mini-block at 500 initially over James Bay.  That moves w/ the 500 low to the S and ends up S of NFL for excellent downstream s/w ridging.

And look at those 925 and 850 temps.  That's pure powder ratio up!

If you want something to "complain about" (EEYORE CoastalWx will find a way - LOL), the uber crushing is well S over the Delmarva and NJ.  27" max near ACY and look that the rear sfc pressure gradient residence time as the low undergoes RI and sits in place for a period until the 500 support can catch up.  This taken at face value, its going to be "KRAZEE" for this area w/ sig coastal flooding.  I seem to recall this happened unexpectedly or more than fcst in the Feb 2016 blockbuster, or one of those events in the mid 2010s.  Ocean City was hit hard.
 

ACWATT

[Typhoon Tip]

Something else that's been bothering me about these western outlier runs that are bringing the goodies ...  they just look unalloyed to the surrounding when so nucleated like this below.   ALB with 10 kts of N drift while New Canaan CT with 72 mph roof peeler gusts.  First Tor'easter ever observed on the planet.    You know how baroclinic/extratropical cyclones are suppose to spread their momentum out of a larger area - hello. 

 

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. That is a concern...the disinterest of the EURO camp is an issue. I still hedge in that direction...maybe not cirrus, but not sold on a blizzard.

Or as CoastalWx would say, "DIAMOND DUST AT 30,000 FT!!!" 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Something else that's been bothering me about these western outlier runs that are bringing the goodies ...  they are just unalloyed to the surrounding when it so nucleated like that. ALB with 10 kts of N drift and New Canaan CT with 72 mph roof peeler gusts.  First Tor'easter ever observed on the planet.    

 

As though the model is telegraphing future efforts to use eastward tending as vehicle for gradient normalization.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. That is a concern...the disinterest of the EURO camp is an issue. I still hedge in that direction...maybe not cirrus, but not sold on a blizzard.

Agree. I’m 80/20 plowable/memorable.

[Damage In Tolland]

The worst thing on this forum is when people try to guess what a model output will be out to hour 12

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As though the model is telegraphing future efforts to use eastward tending as vehicle for gradient normalization.

The thought crossed my mind... The AI/ChatGPT version of this run's saying, 'yeah... there's a vicious storm here but I'm not gonna commit on the western side while I'm negotiating a no-no' 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The worst thing on this forum is when people try to guess what a model output be out to hour 12

With a great winter underway it's amazing the amount of jaded posts. GFS has us  snowing pretty much for 5 days. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

With a great winter underway it's amazing the amount of jaded posts. GFS has us  snowing pretty much for 5 days. 

Most great winter's leave plenty on the table...means zip, zero, zilch.

[ineedsnow]

GEFS improved

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

With a great winter underway it's amazing the amount of jaded posts. GFS has us  snowing pretty much for 5 days. 

Agreed so violently 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Most great winter's leave plenty on the table...means zip, zero, zilch.

The closest winter I ever saw that seemed like it was "un wasting" was 1992-1993.  There were really two enormous events that defined that year, and I specifically recall a dearth of activity between, not because much was actually missed - I remember not seeing many opportunities.   But I consider that a great winter just because that Dec 9-11 thing will live on in infamy ...  It's probably a top 3 life time event for me.   Then the late "super storm", which really was rather pedestrian in Acton Ma ... 15" with a 1/2 of sleet crusted over - well...it was huge for 1993.  But since then we've been handing out 15"ers like Pez candies so the novelty of that has gone... But just the specter and vitals of that whole storm is probably not getting repeated in 100 years - statistically.     Maybe we'll see it .. then future suckers will suffer without.  Well, they will anyway as Venus hits.  haha.   

No but there may have been some other events between Dec and Mar that year, but they weren't really under performed.     Proficiency was very high.  

[MJO812]

Euro AI way east. Models are all over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This winter has been pretty ordinary for a large chunk of the region with respect to snowfall, and I have news for you...it's systems like this weekend that represent the crucial points of inflection that determine whether or not they ascend. Some do, some don't. Some call it jaded, I call it reality.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI way east. Models are all over.

So jaded...who hurt you?

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI way east. Models are all over.

Cocked?