Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Regular Euro looks terrible 

oh well fun while it lasted!

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

oh well fun while it lasted!

bro euro is like the most horrible model

[Jt17]

oh well fun while it lasted!

It's a hell of a lot better than 0z - so it's figuring it out. It's been crap this year. It's smarter AI brother means much more these days.


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[Nibor]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bro euro is like the most horrible model

Everyone here agrees the 12z euro is right. Time to pack it up homie. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Nibor said:

Everyone here agrees the 12z euro is right. Time to pack it up homie. 

you know where the door is Nibor

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bro euro is like the most horrible model

It's not.   It's near the top for performance.    I was mostly kidding above but we've seen the last 2 bigger storms miss to the S and E so it's possible but at day 5-6 anything's on the table

[mattinpa]

There’s time but I’d like to see the Euro at least showing some kind of hit by tomorrow. Lots of potential and would make this winter one of the best. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's not.   It's near the top for performance.    I was mostly kidding above but we've seen the last 2 bigger storms miss to the S and E so it's possible but at day 5-6 anything's on the table

i'm sticking with a blend of GFS and Euro Ai those are better models. I would rate euro as good as icon or ukmet!

[NEG NAO]

IMO all options still on the table - we are too far out to determine exactly when and if a phase will occur .

[Metasequoia]

Regular Euro vs. the world... as of right now.

[Franklin0529]

We've been here before. Nobody knows what this storm is gonna do. Get it till Friday still showing this out come an maybe I'll bite. Still wayyy too much time for this to go either way. But i'd sell weathergeek an snowman to make it happen 

[winterwx21]

I wouldn't worry about the Euro since it's all alone. However this is a delicate setup, so something could easily go wrong to cause no storm for our area. At least we have a chance of seeing something big, and it'll be interesting tracking it over the next few days. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

See what the euro ensembles sure at this range 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Regular Euro vs. the world... as of right now.

GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP

[Jt17]

GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP

The Euro and Euro AI aren't very really related from my understanding, which explains why their solutions are vastly different very often. And unless 6z was noticeably better than 12z for Euro OP, then 12z is much better than 0z from last night.


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[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP

People hear what they want to hear-got to look at it all and the seasonal trend-when was the last time we had a benchmark storm?

[mriceyman]

People hear what they want to hear-got to look at it all and the seasonal trend-when was the last time we had a benchmark storm?

Means were due lol


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[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP

two things i'd like to point out, euro hasn't scored one storm this year and Gefs is always out to lunch!

[WeatherGeek2025]

if eps shows a whiff than i'd take the euro run more serious

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

People hear what they want to hear-got to look at it all and the seasonal trend-when was the last time we had a benchmark storm?

now i don't claim to have a great handle on this stuff, but i saw people here saying the recent big snow to sleet storm was a benchmark storm...so what defines a benchmark storm? because i have seen big ones that were not exactly miller a bowling balls.....this last big one and jan 2005 come to mind.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

if eps shows a whiff than i'd take the euro run more serious

The GEFS are vastly different that the OP GFS-would you toss the GFS op?  Nope b/c it shows the preferred solution

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, mriceyman said:

Means were due lol


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i think we had our big storm this year; and it was a doozy. as for being due.....where you around from 1984-93? ok, jan 87 featured a good one in north jersey and one in south jersey. and that was it. we can go a long time between big snows. we just went 5 years, though 2024 had a big one locally here in nj, i believe it was an inverted trough, help me out here folks.....

[EasternLI]

AI-EPS at 00z Monday.

00z - 06z - 12z runs in that order. 

 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

if eps shows a whiff than i'd take the euro run more serious

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The GEFS are vastly different that the OP GFS-would you toss the GFS op?  Nope b/c it shows the preferred solution

yes because the GEFS suck! The EPS is way more accurate than its op at this stage, I never use the GEFS!

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

yes because the GEFS suck! The EPS is way more accurate than its op at this stage, I never use the GEFS!

the eps is only an advisory level event

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the eps is only an advisory level event

with marginal temps would need heavier precip otherwise urban areas could have trouble accumulating lighter rates

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with marginal temps would need heavier precip otherwise urban areas could have trouble accumulating lighter rates

agreed also after reviewing all the 12Z guidance I would say IMO there is a 50/50 chance of a SECS and a 30 % chance of a MECS - what does everyone else think percentage wise ?

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

with marginal temps would need heavier precip otherwise urban areas could have trouble accumulating lighter rates

At this point the only things off the table IMO are a cutter or runner. I think the only 2 questions that remain are is this a hit? Or is it south/OTS? With 5-6 days to go, either one is certainly possible

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agreed also after reviewing all the 12Z guidance I would say IMO there is a 50/50 chance of a SECS and a 30 % chance of a MECS - what does everyone else think percentage wise ?

i'd say 50% hecs, 30% whiff and 20% advisory like eps