Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

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Buckle up, big boy!

[Dark Star]

42 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

U
K
M

 

 

Two closed lows?

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Mr. T. said:

Still waiting until Friday night to get excited. Have a feeling this will be warmer then its depicting, but glad to see a lot of models coming together to at least show something. Long way to go still.

IMO this is either a hit or south and OTS. Warm/cutter or runner is off the table. Extremely confident in that

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Two closed lows?

thats the primary transferring its energy to the coast - Canadian showed that also - Miller B

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

thats the primary transferring its energy to the coast - Canadian showed that also - Miller B

lets hope we don't see the further N and E trend that we often see with some of these Miller B's

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

If we ever needed a perfect thread the needle to pull off a really big one this would be it.

If I had a dime for every time I've seen language like that posted in this forum over the years...  

[Dark Star]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Blizzard watches were discontinued in late 2017. 

I hate when age old definitions are changed.  If it is not snowing, but if the snow on the ground is wind driven fiercely enough, give it another name.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

lets hope we don't see the further N and E trend that we often see with some of these Miller B's

only if the block weakens and starts moving out of the way

[Nibor]

AI Euro not as robust as some of the other Global OPs but still relatively in line with other guidance.

[nycwinter]

15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Why does everyone want to end winter while still in February? Approaching mid March I might understand it especially for all of you NYC and south.. 

chances of a snowstorm decrease dramatically after feb..

[SACRUS]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, the GEFS is completely at odds with the op run. I’m more curious to see what the GEPS does after that wild run

GEFS with 0.4 QPW (mean) into NYC 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

chances of a snowstorm decrease dramatically after feb..

march is often warm and snowless these days anyway

[SACRUS]

 

 

2/17 12z EURO AIFS

 

[SACRUS]

[liwxfan]

Mother nature does not care about any opinions or what "normally" does or doesnt happen. Or anything that has happened in the past. We have seen so many interesting and unexpected weather events in recent years. Enjoy the ride this could be a big one........or just a windy day. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

this is looking legit at this range. really impressive synoptic support for a potentially major system... just need to see it hold for a couple more days before we get truly excited

[SACRUS]

 

12Z AI EURO

 

Total QPF

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I hate when age old definitions are changed.  If it is not snowing, but if the snow on the ground is wind driven fiercely enough, give it another name.

Blizzard warnings are still provided. Only the watches were eliminated.

[TJW014]

Steve D says it's not coming. That means a jackpot for Freehold

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Steve D says it's not coming. That means a jackpot for Freehold

He always jackpots his area and is wrong 98 percent of the time. 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/17 12z 

NYC QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

ICON: 1.7 / rain to hvy snow
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.8 / rain to hvy snow
GFS: 1.3 / Hvy snow
GGEM:  1.9 / Hvy prolific  snow
UKMET:   1.1 / Hvy snow
GEFS:  0.4 / mostly misses
EURO AI AIFS:  1.1 / hvy snow
 

Updated

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If I had a dime for every time I've seen language like that posted in this forum over the years...  

Thread the needle is slang for getting a perfectly timed phase or storm separation between multiple systems. So I think this forecast qualifies.

Would probably just use an ensemble blend at this point since OP runs day 5-6 usually change over time. Hence the you never want to be in the jackpot expression days 5-10.

That being said, the storm signal is growing. But we’ll need a perfectly timed storm separation and phasing to get some of the higher end OP solutions. This can be a challenge so I will just go with the more conservative ensemble means until the specific details come into better focus.

The highest scoring guidance this winter so far has been the EPS AIFS. But like all the other guidance it’s better under 72-120 hrs. So we still want to see the storm signal hold the closer in we get.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

17 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

chances of a snowstorm decrease dramatically after feb..

For NYC and south yes. There's another half of the forum north of NYC. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

42 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

when do you think we'll get blizzard watches and warnings?

Have you updated your snowfall forecast for Sunday?

[NEG NAO]

[Nibor]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO this is either a hit or south and OTS. Warm/cutter or runner is off the table. Extremely confident in that

12z Euro OP is that southern option. 

[TJW014]

If these Day 5-6 maps verified, I'd have over 100" of snow on the season total. Yet instead I have 17"

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Euro AI eps came west 

[mob1]

Regular Euro looks terrible