The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, EW9616 said:

How much is lost to the white rain and rates during day today. An inch or two of accumulation that is being shown on the maps?


.

Roughly

[Brasiluvsnow]

Why are people reacting as if we did not think that this might start off as rain in many places , it was 50 degrees yesterday ?

[SACRUS]

 

This is whats lost to rain/mix lesser rates which the nams accounted for

 

[CTNoreaster]

 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah probably up to .25 of liquid...the main show is later once the heavy rates move in

I've already started to accumulate on colder surfaces, just not pavement. 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Why are people reacting as if we did not think that this might start off as rain in many places , it was 50 degrees yesterday ?

I think we all knew that. But a little concerning to see some of the Mesos and NAM cutting the western extent and reducing totals that were admittedly insane to begin with. Starting to see that 10-20” alignment for most which would be incredible, even if it’s not “historic”

[NJwx85]

I started off as wet snow. Already a slushy coating on the cars.

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I think we all knew that. But a little concerning to see some of the Mesos and NAM cutting the western extent and reducing totals that were admittedly insane to begin with. Starting to see that 10-20” alignment for most which would be incredible, even if it’s not “historic”

Understood ,,,IMO the only thing that matters now is when does the real show begin and where those heavier bands establish themselves

[NEG NAO]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Picking up subsidence in between the 2 heaviest bands

there are going to be winners ( rising air - banding) and losers in this event (sinking air - possible light dry slot)there  will be a wide range of total snowfall amounts region wide IMO - and impossible at this point to tell exactly where - begin nowcasting....

[SHELEG]

Still plain rain in Brooklyn.

[Parterre]

I know nothing about nothing: what's stopping this from just being sleet, frozen rain, graupel, or even just rain, given the temps?

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, Parterre said:

I know nothing about nothing: what's stopping this from just being sleet, frozen rain, graupel, or even just rain, given the temps?

dynamics - rising air =lifting creating its own cold enough temps

[snywx]

31 here w/ flakes flying. A dusting so far 

expecting 8-12” here 

[Parterre]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

dynamics

Could you elaborate a little?

[IrishRob17]

Just now, snywx said:

31 here w/ flakes flying. A dusting so far 

expecting 8-12” here 

Same here all around but it’s 34 currently 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Parterre said:

I know nothing about nothing: what's stopping this from just being sleet, frozen rain, graupel, or even just rain, given the temps?

storm is only going to get colder aloft, no warm nose. low pressure well south of us deepening rapidly as the bombogenesis phenomenon takes over.

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

storm is only going to get colder aloft, no warm nose. low pressure well south of us deepening rapidly as the bombogenesis phenomenon takes over.

this  is a very complex set-up and there are going to be some surprises as we get further down the road today - possible extreme lifting - banding and on the flip side a large dry slot somewhere cutting off precip for hours

 

[NJwx85]

I’m not worried about models pulling back. It literally happens every storm. This is a long duration event with explosive dynamics. There will be many surprise's.

[cleetussnow]

24 minutes ago, TKFJ said:

Upton should not have bit on the crazy numbers being printed out by the NAM/GFS. The 12-18” forecast for the NE NJ counties should have stuck. 18-22” is too high

Based on what?  

[winterwarlock]

Cloudy here after some light rain earlier

 

37 degrees

 

Belle Mead NJ

[donsutherland1]

For reference:

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 

 Largest → Smallest

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

Where's 1888?

[MJO812]

This is like Christmas morning. Enjoy everyone. Its been years since we saw a blizzard.

[Allsnow]

36 as light rain continues 

[Northof78]

100% light wet snow here now, no accumulation 

[Blizzardo]

It's getting breezy over here and you can feel the temp is dropping. 

[Brian5671]

some off and on light snow here

[Snowshack]

First flurries in wading river, 34f.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

My temp has dropped from 35 to 31. The precip shield is quickly approaching. All snow is forecasted here. 25 mins of drizzle to start,its been snow since.

[Roger Smith]

Blizzard of 1888 started with a bit of rain too. It was around 38F when the precip began with that historic storm on a similar track. 

[Neblizzard]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

36 as light rain continues 

I’d give it another hour or two. It’s like marinating the sauce.   Epic cold and blocking are gone so we’ll have to rely on dynamics.  It’s ok.,