EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, TriPol said: Weenie suicide I mean 4 days ago we were hoping for 6 to 12. So IF IF this were to happen its at least a heavy snow event. This is why I kept saying we need the storm to gain more latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, NEG NAO said: problem I see - the Nam cut totals at 12Z and the Canadian already had reduced total at 0Z Last night There are usually strong bands to the north and west of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, MJO812 said: There are usually strong bands to the north and west of the low. time will tell thats all I have to say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Coast still looks good. Banding is tricky to pinpoint. yup case in point if the gfs was off with this band by 25 - 30 miles - major implications - the storm will do what its gonan and wants to do - no model especially global will hone in in this range with the banding which are paramount in these coastals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 lol some of the mesos have been creeping up, last few runs compared to their previous run at the same end time. Globals are way out of their wheelhouse now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 AI. Cut back a touch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 12z HREF through tomorrow 12z: Even if on deducts one category, NYC has 12"-15" of snow by 12z tomorrow on the HREF. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, JonClaw said: Literally zero support for this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I’ll say it once more relax fellas!!! Just look at the HREF that was just posted. Seriously you guys are causing way too much panic! All systems are a go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 12z HREF through tomorrow 12z: Even if on deducts one category, NYC has 12"-15" of snow by 12z tomorrow on the HREF. Also drastically reduced the NW extent but still verbatim a great depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Unfortunately these storms due to tend to tick east at the last second. I guess NJ coast and LI due for a biggie. Still a nice storm for all though and hopefully some banding to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Whoa gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I still lean near the low end. Above the RGEM but below many others. Maybe 12-16 near NYC though obviously if a February 06 band sets up that goes out the window, but there is always risk of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 and here comes all the cliff jumpers.....smh Like the swallows to Capistrano . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: AI. Cut back a touch this is now now casting time using radars and various types of surface reports and observations - I don't think any model can keep up to date at this time because of all the complex interactions in the atmosphere constantly changing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: time will tell thats all I have to say And therein lies part of the problem. People have been calling this a historic storm now for 24 hours before even a flake falls. I'm not even sure what the word historic means anymore, to break into the top 20 the city needs 15.4 inches from the storm. Would that be historic? If they get 15.3 is that not historic? They got 11.4 inches last month so if they get 11.3 is that a bust? I get the excitement and I hope it is a great storm, but people calling a storm historic before anything happens....... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 12z HREF through tomorrow 12z: Even if on deducts one category, NYC has 12"-15" of snow by 12z tomorrow on the HREF. What are your thoughts on the GFS and general model cut-backs? Could the further south solution be due to the warmer water temps being south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Dooming time feels like it happens all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: problem I see - the Nam cut totals at 12Z and the Canadian already had reduced total at 0Z Last night Speaking as a member of the N & W crowd I'm with you. There were some concerning signals popping up last evening. One reason I did not go higher than 12-18". Even thought about leaving my 10-15" forecast alone. Not a good thing when you have to rely on banding and ratios to get you to the finish line. It can get you there but you don't want to have to depend on it. I just want to get 12" here to verify my forecast. Personally I think the 18" high end is fading for this area and for near certain N & W of here. Just gotta watch radar and mesos from here on in. One of my concerns has always been the RGEM was never on board for big totals out this way. The RGEM is not a trash model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: And therein lies part of the problem. People have been calling this a historic storm now for 24 hours before even a flake falls. I'm not even sure what the word historic means anymore, to break into the top 20 the city needs 15.4 inches from the storm. Would that be historic? If they get 15.3 is that not historic? They got 11.4 inches last month so if they get 11.3 is that a bust? I get the excitement and I hope it is a great storm, but people calling a storm historic before anything happens....... I would rate historic as in the top 10 % of all time greatest snowstorms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Literally zero support for this There was as of the last model cycle, the NWS doesn’t fluctuate as rapidly as this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Mail Man said: Dooming time feels like it happens all the time often enough....the last storm was not advertised as the apocalypse though...we knew we would lose a lot to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Literally zero support for this You like looking at 3 models with the lowest totals and selectively forgetting the models that do show more and deciding that's your forecast. They like to see a sub 970 low crawling up the coast and chilling by Atlantic City and extrapolate that the higher end of model guidance is more likely since that should dump a ton of snow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 First flakes now in my backyard. Temp 34.4 Let's go! We are in nowcast mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: often enough....the last storm was not advertised as the apocalypse though...we knew we would lose a lot to sleet. But yet forum wide there was 11-18 inches. A few exceptions on the shore and CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Mail Man said: I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend really....this is steady rain now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Every time, no matter what happens, remember it is out of our control. All of it is. No matter if it surprises or disappoints, you can’t change it. Maybe you want to prove you’re smarter or better one or another, but no matter what you think, you have no impact on the final outcome. Enjoy the journey.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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