NJwx85 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I’m not worried about models pulling back. It literally happens every storm. This is a long duration event with explosive dynamics. There will be many surprise's. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 24 minutes ago, TKFJ said: Upton should not have bit on the crazy numbers being printed out by the NAM/GFS. The 12-18” forecast for the NE NJ counties should have stuck. 18-22” is too high Based on what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Cloudy here after some light rain earlier 37 degrees Belle Mead NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 For reference: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 Largest → Smallest Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5" Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9" Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4" Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9" Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2" Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0" Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8" Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0" Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1" Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7" Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6" Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4" Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4" Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0" Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3" Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2" Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5" Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0" Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8" Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7" Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6" Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0" Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8" Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7" Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5" Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5" Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5" Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0" Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8" Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6" Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5" Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4" Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4" Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2" Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9" Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8" Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7" Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7" Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6" Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0" Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0" Where's 1888? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This is like Christmas morning. Enjoy everyone. Its been years since we saw a blizzard. 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 36 as light rain continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 100% light wet snow here now, no accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 It's getting breezy over here and you can feel the temp is dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 some off and on light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 First flurries in wading river, 34f. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 My temp has dropped from 35 to 31. The precip shield is quickly approaching. All snow is forecasted here. 25 mins of drizzle to start,its been snow since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Blizzard of 1888 started with a bit of rain too. It was around 38F when the precip began with that historic storm on a similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 36 as light rain continues I’d give it another hour or two. It’s like marinating the sauce. Epic cold and blocking are gone so we’ll have to rely on dynamics. It’s ok., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: Blizzard of 1888 started with a bit of rain too. It was around 38F when the precip began with that historic storm on a similar track. I think it was a fair amount of rain before it flipped? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Off and on snow showers in Chelsea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Temp now down to 30F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I never watch TV but happened to tune into AccuWeather Channel just now. Bernie Rayo calling for 10-14”. Very conservative across all forecast areas. Meanwhile TWC calling for 18-24 for NYC. SMH. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is like Christmas morning. Enjoy everyone. Its been years since we saw a blizzard. You deserve this one! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Based on what? His personal modelology. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, wishcast_hater said: I never watch TV but happened to tune into AccuWeather Channel just now. Bernie Rayo calling for 10-14”. Very conservative across all forecast areas. Meanwhile TWC calling for 18-24 for NYC. SMH. . that's the general forecast on media around here; with more at the shore and long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I never watch TV but happened to tune into AccuWeather Channel just now. Bernie Rayo calling for 10-14”. Very conservative across all forecast areas. Meanwhile TWC calling for 18-24 for NYC. SMH. . 12-24 is a good call. You dont know where the bands will set up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Reminder Olympic Hockey Gold Medal Game begins in 10 minutes = Go Team USA ,,,,,,,, now back to our program they'll need a miracle; this is canada's national game. they are just better. but its always exciting to see a national team make it to some sort of final. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 IMO, the major blizzard remains on track. My thinking of 16"-22" in the City and nearby areas and 18"-24" in parts of Long Island and central NJ with locally higher amounts is unchanged. That the NAM has come to Earth doesn't change things. Were the storm not expect to develop as explosively as expected and were it not to approach or surpass 970 mb, I'd be thinking 12"-18" based on a preponderance of the guidance. However, explosively deepening and super intense storms have very efficient and powerful dynamics that maximize snowfall. Thus, it makes sense to add about a third to the figures one would normally expect. One saw such a case during February 11-12, 2006. The blizzard's dynamics outran the models and the forecasts. What had been expected to be about a foot of snow in NYC wound up being 26.9". Forecast amounts were increased several times when the blizzard was underway. So, at least for now, I'm quite comfortable with my amounts listed above. 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Where's 1888? I posted a list of the top 20 all-time on the February observation list. There are actually 68, 10 inch snow storms in New York City since they started keeping records in 1870. Sarcus was listing just a more current list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 37 and cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 Keep obs in here 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Steady very light snow. 31.8F Picked up .1-.2" so far. Plow came by and salted, so it melted in the street. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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