2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[frontranger8]

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why? the climo baseline is about to jump even warmer

It's not a one to one relationship when you're talking about something like snowfall at a specific location.

[frontranger8]

39 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Not necessarily. This would work if the event was random, however, we have strong evidence that our climatology issues are related to human caused climate change. Therefore, it will most likely not revert till we revert the atmospheric forcing mechanisms of climate change effects on the atmospheric/oceanic circulation. 

There are way too many individual examples that go against this, though. It's just not that simple.

For example, for much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, Feb/Mar has gotten colder and snowier in the past decade or so. Counter the global temperature trend.

[BuffaloWeather]

November might set records for warmest on record across many locations. 

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

It's not a one to one relationship when you're talking about something like snowfall at a specific location.

it needs to be cold for snow

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

For example, for much of the Pacific Northwest, Feb/Mar has gotten colder and snowier in the past decade or so. Counter the global temperature trend.

citation needed

[frontranger8]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it needs to be cold for snow

Brilliant. Thankfully, it can still get cold enough to snow.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

November might set records for warmest on record across many locations. 

I don't even think it will be the warmest November this decade. 2020, 2022, and 2024 set the bar so high. Early returns tell me it won't be as warm as those years.

[MJO812]

Bamwx still likes mid to late November for a colder pattern in the east.

[frontranger8]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

citation needed

Here's February over the last dozen years. Keep in mind the baseline goes back 35 years.

 

Seattle's snowfall in February the past 10 years has been more than double their long term mean. This includes their snowiest February on record (2019) and their third snowiest (2021).

https://wrcc-archive.dri.edu/WRCCWrappers.py?sodxtrmts+457473+por+por+snow+none+msum+5+07+F

[cmillzz]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

citation needed

He's not entirely wrong, but what's really striking is how much warmer the East has gotten over the past decade or so.

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

Here's February over the last dozen years. Keep in mind the baseline goes back 35 years.

 

Seattle's snowfall in February the past 10 years has been more than double their long term mean. This includes their snowiest February on record (2019) and their third snowiest (2021).

https://wrcc-archive.dri.edu/WRCCWrappers.py?sodxtrmts+457473+por+por+snow+none+msum+5+07+F

you said february and march

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, cmillzz said:

He's not entirely wrong, but what's really striking is how much warmer the East has gotten over the past decade or so.

use older averages and that blue disappears

[donsutherland1]

El Niño Regions 1+2 (+5.4C anomaly) and 3 (+4.4C anomaly) set new weekly records for the week centered around October 28th. Region 3.4 (+3.4C anomaly) tied its weekly record that had been set during the prior week. Despite some social media chatter of a "weakening" El Niño, the ongoing event is continuing to strengthen. It will likely peak this month or next month. It will also likely be the dominant influence on the hemispheric pattern for December, January and maybe February.  The biggest wildcards concern whether meaningful blocking develops late in the winter (possibly allowing for one big snowstorm as occurred during 1982-83 and 2015-16), the degree and rate of weakening following El Niño's November/December peak, and whether the stratospheric polar vortex will recover from the forecast sudden stratospheric warming event then lock in for much of the winter.

Yesterday's November monthly record rainfall in parts of Arizona, including Flagstaff where records go back to 1898, and today's extreme rainfall in parts of Florida have been, in part, aided by El Niño's enhanced moisture and subtropical jet. This aspect is likely to play out throughout much of the winter with a high degree of confidence.

Artwork generated to illustrate El Niño's rising impact.

[frontranger8]

30 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you said february and march

See above. And of course you just ignored the Seattle stats I shared. How is that possible in a warming world, in a location that struggles to get snow much more than NYC??

[frontranger8]

27 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

He's not entirely wrong, but what's really striking is how much warmer the East has gotten over the past decade or so.

Not "entirely wrong" lol, ok I'll take it. That map shows exactly what I said.

[frontranger8]

26 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

use older averages and that blue disappears

Has the world not warmed since the 1990s and 2000s? Wasn't that the logic behind this discussion?

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, frontranger8 said:

There are way too many individual examples that go against this, though. It's just not that simple.

For example, for much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, Feb/Mar has gotten colder and snowier in the past decade or so. Counter the global temperature trend.

I thought we were talking about your specific location? I'm not sure how the West Coast cooling offsets the idea that your specific location (due to the differences in atmospheric circulation and climate change impact on specific Rossby wave configs) is warming. Frankly it makes sense that if your area has been warm over the past 10 or so years then somewhere else will get cooler: that is the stationary wave component moving in response to climate forcing. If anything, this argument proves my point here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

El Niño Regions 1+2 (+5.4C anomaly) and 3 (+4.4C anomaly) set new weekly records for the week centered around October 28th. Region 3.4 (+3.4C anomaly) tied its weekly record that had been set during the prior week. Despite some social media chatter of a "weakening" El Niño, the ongoing event is continuing to strengthen. It will likely peak this month or next month. It will also likely be the dominant influence on the hemispheric pattern for December, January and maybe February.  The biggest wildcards concern whether meaningful blocking develops late in the winter (possibly allowing for one big snowstorm as occurred during 1982-83 and 2015-16), the degree and rate of weakening following El Niño's November/December peak, and whether the stratospheric polar vortex will recover from the forecast sudden stratospheric warming event then lock in for much of the winter.

Yesterday's November monthly record rainfall in parts of Arizona, including Flagstaff where records go back to 1898, and today's extreme rainfall in parts of Florida have been, in part, aided by El Niño's enhanced moisture and subtropical jet. This aspect is likely to play out throughout much of the winter with a high degree of confidence.

Artwork generated to illustrate El Niño's rising impact.

Just adding to this for those unaware ...there's an apparent category 4/5 "marine heat wave" going on from the near shore waters of San Francisco all the way down the coast...   There's some modest suggestion in the total larger scale SST to be indirectly linked with the El Nino - though this is likely an artifact of proximity rather than the same forcing.  

[frontranger8]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I thought we were talking about your specific location? I'm not sure how the West Coast cooling offsets the idea that your specific location (due to the differences in atmospheric circulation and climate change impact on specific Rossby wave configs) is warming. Frankly it makes sense that if your area has been warm over the past 10 or so years then somewhere else will get cooler: that is the stationary wave component moving in response to climate forcing. If anything, this argument proves my point here. 

No, it wasn't about my location. It was about NYC's lack of March snowfall in recent years, and people pushing the idea that this trend is entirely driven by global warming, and therefore a return to more normal March snowfall won't happen.

My point was simply that if you look at short term trends, small sample sizes for a specific location, it won't always match what's happening globally with temps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

El Niño Regions 1+2 (+5.4C anomaly) and 3 (+4.4C anomaly) set new weekly records for the week centered around October 28th. Region 3.4 (+3.4C anomaly) tied its weekly record that had been set during the prior week. Despite some social media chatter of a "weakening" El Niño, the ongoing event is continuing to strengthen. It will likely peak this month or next month. It will also likely be the dominant influence on the hemispheric pattern for December, January and maybe February.  The biggest wildcards concern whether meaningful blocking develops late in the winter (possibly allowing for one big snowstorm as occurred during 1982-83 and 2015-16), the degree and rate of weakening following El Niño's November/December peak, and whether the stratospheric polar vortex will recover from the forecast sudden stratospheric warming event then lock in for much of the winter.

Yesterday's November monthly record rainfall in parts of Arizona, including Flagstaff where records go back to 1898, and today's extreme rainfall in parts of Florida have been, in part, aided by El Niño's enhanced moisture and subtropical jet. This aspect is likely to play out throughout much of the winter with a high degree of confidence.

Artwork generated to illustrate El Niño's rising impact.

That looks like the porn I tried to watch growing up during the 80s and early 90s in mom's house....I think I can make out a nipple there, Donnie, you dirty birdie...

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, frontranger8 said:

Brilliant. Thankfully, it can still get cold enough to snow.

Plenty cold.  So Don’t even waste your time with these people.    If one listens to them, they’ll have you believing it may never snow again.   
 

There was another fool who tried to tell us that…his name was Al Gore. 

[LakePaste25]

I see this place has gone back to its usual cesspool of arguing whether it’ll be warm or cold rather than talking about ENSO and teleconnections. sad. 

[A-L-E-K]

denier board

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. not this quickly, but it does stand to reason that CC will chip away at the bookends of the season first.

I can see that easily, but from an average standpoint. 

Ive already noticed a slight reduction in avg snowfall here on the bookends of the season BUT also an increase during the heart of the season. What it means is the avg season snowfall isnt going down and theres more fun in the heart of winter. Despite the reduction in bookends we still see yearly April snow and occasional October & May snow. 

If Florida and the Gulf Coast can see record snowstorms 2 years in a row, it can snow in NYC in March. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

If Florida and the Gulf Coast can see record snowstorms 2 years in a row, it can snow in NYC in March. 

And don't forget about Nola, lol This is one of the places where weather is so counterintuitive to layman like me who just follow it as a hobby. Like with cc being what it is, you would think those places could not see snow like that. But there are other complicated mechanisms at play that make those things possible even while things are supposed to be getting warmer, lol

[frontranger8]

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

denier board

I haven't seen a single person denying climate change. Definitely seen a couple people denying logic and facts, though.

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

denier board

Its not. Its actually a board of good discussion mixed with some cc extremist agenda trolls who frequently make outrageous statements that month after month year after year are proven wrong.

[GaWx]

 The 30 hPa QBO per ATMO Hub dropped from +17.6 in Sept to +14.0 in Oct. But I advise weenies to not take that small drop and interpret that to mean that a -QBO is going to arrive by Feb (though I expect some x weenies to do just that….be prepared ). All it is doing is oscillating within the solidly positive region (the image below shows this well).

 Related to that, 20 hPa and 15 hPa are still maintaining their strong status with +17.5 to +17.6. Also, the level that Paul Roundy referred to a few days ago, 70 hPa, as expected rose sharply from +2.6 to +7.0. 
 
 The last 29 +cycles at 30 hPa have lasted 10 months++ and have averaged ~13 months going back to 1960. The current one started in May. Feb ‘27 would be the 10th month and May ‘27 the 13th month.

 Thus, I maintain my prediction that there will be a +QBO at 30 hPa through at least Feb with Feb likely lower than the current +14 but likely still at +5+ and possibly as high as ~+10. My best guess as to when it goes to a -QBO is still around May. Thus, 2015-6, 1982-3, and 1957-8 remain the top +QBO/strong+ Nino analogs ignoring where it will be based (east). If the E basedness is then incorporated, 1982-3 easily becomes the best overall analog.

 This image (just updated for Oct) better illustrates the current QBO status at all levels. As one can clearly see, we’re in the heart of a solid +QBO at 30 hPa that won’t end per history til at the very least 3 months after we see it first dropping to <0 at 10 hPa. The avg lag of going to -QBO from the 10 hPa level to the 30 hPa level is actually 7 months:

@snowman19

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

This is what I mean by record warmth in November:

2020-11-06	71	46	58.5	8.0	6	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-11-07	75	47	61.0	10.9	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-11-08	76	46	61.0	11.2	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-11-09	75	47	61.0	11.6	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-11-10	76	48	62.0	12.9	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2020-11-11	71	61	66.0	17.2	0	1	1.48	0.0	0

 

2022-11-01	74	58	66.0	13.8	0	1	0.13	0.0	0
2022-11-02	71	51	61.0	9.1	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-11-03	72	45	58.5	7.0	6	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-11-04	73	47	60.0	8.8	5	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-11-05	78	56	67.0	16.2	0	2	0.00	0.0	0
2022-11-06	77	67	72.0	21.5	0	7	T	0.0	0
2022-11-07	79	56	67.5	17.4	0	3	0.00	0.0	0

2022-11-10	70	43	56.5	7.4	8	0	0.00	0.0	0
2022-11-11	72	57	64.5	15.7	0	0	0.44	0.0	0
2022-11-12	71	60	65.5	17.1	0	1	0.07	0.0	0

 

2024-11-01

81

57

69.0

16.8

0

4

T

0.0

0

2024-11-05	76	50	63.0	12.2	2	0	0.00	0.0	0
2024-11-06	80	61	70.5	20.0	0	6	0.00	0.0	0
2024-11-07	78	58	68.0	17.9	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2024-11-08	72	49	60.5	10.7	4	0	0.00	0.0	0

2024-11-11

74

54

64.0

15.2

1

0

0.15

0.0

0

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

denier board

 

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I see this place has gone back to its usual cesspool of arguing whether it’ll be warm or cold rather than talking about ENSO and teleconnections. sad. 

Seems like we all agree it will be warm....just a matter of whether there will be a decent window or two.