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roardog

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About roardog

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    Caro, Michigan
  1. I don't know. The ensembles go out to early December now and I'm not seeing anything that looks like a typical early December La Nina pattern shaping up. If anything, it looks more like an El Nino type pattern with an Aleutian low, a mild Canada and +PNA. It could be mild in that pattern(probably not a blowtorch though) but not because of a typical La Nina pattern. Then again, the models could be completely wrong too. lol
  2. There are wind farms all around here. That’s all you see when you drive around here anymore.
  3. Models are trending to a big time -PNA at least for awhile(hello La Niña).However,cold air is still pouring into Canada thanks to ridging near Alaska. That pattern would probably bring very changeable weather around here. Periods of warm and cold.
  4. We're getting into the time of year where the "normal" high is more an average of extremes. While 80s in mid to late Sept. is certainly warm it isn't anything too crazy. The same can now be said for a stretch of temps in the 60s, maybe even 50s up here, especially in late Sept. Neither one of these scenarios would be anything to write home about. It can get pretty chilly this time of year but there can be summer heat too.
  5. Although there is cold water near the west coast, isn't the official PDO still positive? I think it came in at .79 for July.
  6. The official Weatherbell summer forecast has above average temps in most of the country with the exception of near or slightly below normal in the center of the country where they expect lost of rain. That's different than 2009 obviously. JB did say he thinks the above normal temps in this part of the country will be more due to warm overnight lows with lots of humidity as opposed to hot daytime highs.
  7. The official Weatherbell summer forecast has the majority of the US with above normal temps. JB said they expect the warmest part of summer to be the first half. He doesn't explain why they have such a warm forecast when developing El Niño's are "Garden of Eden" summers according to Weatherbell. The forecasted El Niño could very well fail but JB and Daleo are really hyping it up right now.
  8. How far is Chicago from the seasonal average now? Wouldn't it be funny if Chicago ended with above average snow for the season after the "snow drought"?
  9. It looks like a couple inches of snow on the ground so far here today. This is the most snow we've had on the ground since January.
  10. I can't believe JB would call for a hot summer with a developing El Nino. Maybe along the east coast but I'd be shocked if he called for a hot summer in most of the country. He seems to love the "Garden of Eden" summers during a developing El Nino. Although he has been talking about how the JMA shows a -PDO which could make a difference I guess in the forecast.
  11. You could be in a good area tomorrow evening. I'm sure the warm front will struggle to move north tomorrow but I would think it will at least make it to M59 or so by evening. Meanwhile I'll enjoy my cold rain and northeast wind.
  12. I know everyone fears Strong El Niño. Should we now fear weak La Niña? lol
  13. Hopefully we will get a raging positive October AO this year and low Siberian snowcover just to see what happens during the following winter.
  14. There could be a legitimate warm ground concern there. lol