cmillzz

not if the 12z Euro verifies.

600 dm ridge as far north as MN, wow.

Give me a spring like 1977 next year please. Still remains the warmest on record in my city, even beating out 2012 (and by far the warmest May). Kinda doesn’t really make sense either as it was a complete outlier in an era that was dominated by cold seasons in general (not just winter). Wonder what led to that happening.

Strongest Niño on record with no precedence along with other competing factors and even some lingering niña-like effects. Wouldn’t be confident at all in making calls for the upcoming winter, especially at this juncture. Only confidence is that it’ll likely be very warm at times, and very statistically unlikely to be as cold as last winter in the East (even without taking ENSO into account).

Early July heat wave misses us to the east, and now it’s looking as though the mid-July death ridge will miss us to the west. Go figure. It’ll probably still be slightly above average, but no 100s any time soon.

This is a historic heatwave… just not for this region. A sudden, significant eastward shift in the ridge spared much of the Midwest from significant triple-digit heat. Otherwise, cities like Chicago, Detroit, and Des Moines likely would have some days over 100°F. Philadelphia hasn't been as fortunate. The city reached 103°F yesterday, breaking the daily record (or tying at least), and climbed to 102°F today. Another 100°F day tomorrow would make this only the third time in its 150+ years of weather records that Philadelphia has recorded three consecutive days of 100°F or higher. What makes this especially impressive is that this is occurring in a developing super Niño year (pre Niño summers in general tend to have cooler summers). It’s not the biggest sample size, but there’s no precedence for a heatwave of this magnitude occurring anywhere east of The Rockies.

been much warmer and wetter than a "normal" spring and will continue to be for the forseeable future, but okay lol

define “normal”

It was always obvious this was going to be a very warm spring tbh, but some people kept trying to hang on to winter for as long as possible.

and the torch did indeed verify with back to back 80s possible today and tomorrow. Chicago should finish the month with a monthly mean max around 55.3, which would be a tie for 5th warmest on record. A few cool days does not negate the fact that it's been objectively very warm overall.

South bend is on track to having a top 10 warmest March this year (7th warmest overall), half the days this month have been 60+ there, wow. It's been an impressively warm March for most, especially with respect to daily maximums. Third very warm March in a row now.

3 degrees off the mark atm, def got closer than you were expecting.

And the vast majority of days in Chicago (ORD anyhow) will be >50° going forward, so I’m not sure what the problem is exactly.

AI GFS did a damn good job here with these temps as the high was indeed in the lower 60s for Chicago on the 19th with 70s in Iowa and 50s in Detroit, very impressive given the lead time. And of course, the cold shot ended up being confined to just the 18th, unsurprisingly.

Think the EPS is getting too carried away with the eastern troughing again on day 5-10, seems over amplified. It’s been doing this for some time now, only to correct warmer once we get inside of hour 120.

March 2023 was very cold in the west though, so completely different patterns.

he’s implying we’re going back into a cold and wintry pattern, which isn’t true at all aside from a couple brief, seasonal cool shots.

not really

My guess is DTW finishes March around +5. Not quite as warm as last year, but I'd still consider that to be a borderline torch.

Damn, even warmer than 2012? That’d be extremely impressive

Seems like they're all clueless to varying degrees.

And it's already been solidly above average over halfway through the month. Quite a different pattern from what we saw this winter with parts of the Northeast actually experiencing the greatest temp departures from normal in the lower 48.

It’s already been a torch month for virtually the entire CONUS and aside from the brief early week cold shot, will continue to torch (except for the far northeast perhaps). Doesn’t need to be 2012 to be defined as a “torch”.

Really wouldn’t be that absurd if it did tbh, especially given how torch days in early spring tend to overperform. I’d say 75+ is certainly in play anyhow.