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cmillzz

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Everything posted by cmillzz

  1. cmillzz
    dude is a living meme
  2. cmillzz
    CPC gave Texas the highest chances for above average temperatures, yet it ended up coolest relative to average, so there you go. With your line of thinking, they may as well have put the entire country in the "equal chances" zone.
  3. cmillzz
    If the anticipated decay of the Niño occurs during that timeframe (or ideally later), it would favor another warm and active spring for the Midwest especially. I’ll take it.
  4. cmillzz
    Late July 2013 featured a legitimately impressive cold snap, with daytime highs barely reaching 60° in Madison, which was truly October-like. Today, by contrast, temperatures have already climbed into the 70s despite the rain and persistent northeast winds, so it's not really all that noteworthy. Though I suppose it may feel that way after the hot July we just had.
  5. cmillzz
    Take a look at their July temperature outlook, issued on the final day of June, and compare it to how the month actually played out. I'd take their monthly outlooks with a grain of salt.
  6. cmillzz
    The bigger story is that July 2026 ended as the sixth warmest July on record at MSP, which is especially notable given the ongoing, strengthening Nino. Bringing up the earliest snowfall on record isn’t relevant and doesn’t feel appropriate to add in the discussion.
  7. cmillzz
    The negative height anomalies near the Gulf of Alaska, together with the core of the strongest negative height anomalies over northeastern Canada, look reasonably Nino-like to me. Summer ENSO teleconnections are much weaker and noisier than in winter, so I wouldn't expect a textbook composite. Given that, the broad pattern still seems fairly consistent with a mature El Nino.
  8. cmillzz
    Chicago dodged what likely would've been its hottest day of the year thanks to today's storms. Rockford and Madison reached the mid-upper 90s under plenty of sun, and even Detroit ended up warmer. Pretty unlucky (or lucky) depending on how you view it, and also a really bizarre set-up.
  9. cmillzz
    Seems delusional to think otherwise at this point tbh.
  10. cmillzz
    not if the 12z Euro verifies.
  11. cmillzz
    600 dm ridge as far north as MN, wow.
  12. cmillzz
    Give me a spring like 1977 next year please. Still remains the warmest on record in my city, even beating out 2012 (and by far the warmest May). Kinda doesn’t really make sense either as it was a complete outlier in an era that was dominated by cold seasons in general (not just winter). Wonder what led to that happening.
  13. cmillzz
    Strongest Niño on record with no precedence along with other competing factors and even some lingering niña-like effects. Wouldn’t be confident at all in making calls for the upcoming winter, especially at this juncture. Only confidence is that it’ll likely be very warm at times, and very statistically unlikely to be as cold as last winter in the East (even without taking ENSO into account).
  14. cmillzz
    Early July heat wave misses us to the east, and now it’s looking as though the mid-July death ridge will miss us to the west. Go figure. It’ll probably still be slightly above average, but no 100s any time soon.
  15. cmillzz
    This is a historic heatwave… just not for this region. A sudden, significant eastward shift in the ridge spared much of the Midwest from significant triple-digit heat. Otherwise, cities like Chicago, Detroit, and Des Moines likely would have some days over 100°F. Philadelphia hasn't been as fortunate. The city reached 103°F yesterday, breaking the daily record (or tying at least), and climbed to 102°F today. Another 100°F day tomorrow would make this only the third time in its 150+ years of weather records that Philadelphia has recorded three consecutive days of 100°F or higher. What makes this especially impressive is that this is occurring in a developing super Niño year (pre Niño summers in general tend to have cooler summers). It’s not the biggest sample size, but there’s no precedence for a heatwave of this magnitude occurring anywhere east of The Rockies.
  16. cmillzz
    been much warmer and wetter than a "normal" spring and will continue to be for the forseeable future, but okay lol
  17. cmillzz
    define “normal”
  18. cmillzz
    It was always obvious this was going to be a very warm spring tbh, but some people kept trying to hang on to winter for as long as possible.
  19. cmillzz
  20. cmillzz
    and the torch did indeed verify with back to back 80s possible today and tomorrow. Chicago should finish the month with a monthly mean max around 55.3, which would be a tie for 5th warmest on record. A few cool days does not negate the fact that it's been objectively very warm overall.
  21. cmillzz
    South bend is on track to having a top 10 warmest March this year (7th warmest overall), half the days this month have been 60+ there, wow. It's been an impressively warm March for most, especially with respect to daily maximums. Third very warm March in a row now.
  22. cmillzz
    3 degrees off the mark atm, def got closer than you were expecting.
  23. cmillzz
    And the vast majority of days in Chicago (ORD anyhow) will be >50° going forward, so I’m not sure what the problem is exactly.
  24. cmillzz
    AI GFS did a damn good job here with these temps as the high was indeed in the lower 60s for Chicago on the 19th with 70s in Iowa and 50s in Detroit, very impressive given the lead time. And of course, the cold shot ended up being confined to just the 18th, unsurprisingly.
  25. cmillzz
    Think the EPS is getting too carried away with the eastern troughing again on day 5-10, seems over amplified. It’s been doing this for some time now, only to correct warmer once we get inside of hour 120.
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