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cmillzz

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Everything posted by cmillzz

  1. cmillzz
    Just to give an example of the Euro's glaringly obvious cold bias/mishandling of long range patterns, here's what it was showing for 18z Thursday back on the first of the month. Newer run on the bottom, as which you can see it corrected warmer.
  2. cmillzz
    Hence why I say eastward, though I do expect some northward expansion of the ridge too. A lot of it will depend on how much existing snow cover there ends up being in the northern regions.
  3. cmillzz
    Ended up being a horrible bust like I thought (the week 2 cooling thing), and likely will be again, at least to an extent.
  4. cmillzz
    Don’t really see anything to stop the ridge from expanding eastward once we get after the equinox (and it’s already been a very warm start to March), but we’ll see. Cold shot looks short-lived and unremarkable too, especially in comparison to the unprecedented heat encompassing the desert southwest. I’m talking mainly for the Midwest though, maybe New England holds on to the cold for longer.
  5. cmillzz
    The only cold period is the 3/16-3/19 period, then warms up significantly afterwards. Would expect warmer trends in the coming days as the models have a tendency to erroneously hold on to the cold for longer than it should when there’s such a vast lack of high-latitude blocking. As I said before and will say again, meteorology > modelology. Funny thing is it’s already been a blowtorch for virtually the entire CONUS
  6. cmillzz
    Yeah, 100s for Phoenix is likely
  7. cmillzz
    Would be surprised if NYC only finishes with a +0.8 departure, but still very early so can understand being conservative.
  8. cmillzz
    Looks like a CONUS-wide blowtorch setting up on the ensembles
  9. cmillzz
    Fairly strong signal for a major system to impact the region around the St. Patrick’s day timeframe. @OrdIowPitMsp gets absolutely clobbered on the 12z GFS.
  10. cmillzz
    might see a blizzard on the 4th of July
  11. cmillzz
    guess you can write off next winter for the Midwest.
  12. cmillzz
    EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again
  13. cmillzz
    Nearing 80 (with dews near 60) at @King James, extremely impressive for early March.
  14. cmillzz
    Yeah, you can def see the emergence of a much warmer pattern towards the end of the ensembles. Quite a strong signal already, so I’m sure there’s some truth to it.
  15. cmillzz
    Maybe some truth to it
  16. cmillzz
    You’d think the AIFS is closer to the correct solution given the lack of blocking. Really think the OP Euro is out to lunch here, but we’ll see.
  17. cmillzz
    Love waking up to the sound of thundery downpours in the morning
  18. cmillzz
    Wouldn’t mind waiting until April for a true torch since averages will be higher then, making the warmth more useful.
  19. cmillzz
    Looks like we Morch
  20. cmillzz
    I know, hour 360. Goes to show how useless the models are at long range forecasting lol.
  21. cmillzz
    Some evidence that the warmth will make a comeback in late March. You can sort of tell on the end of the EPS with the ridge rebuilding and expanding east, though that’s still a long ways out.
  22. cmillzz
    Last March was top 10 warmest FWIW. Pretty sure the only bad stretch last spring was the mid-late May period.
  23. cmillzz
    Yeah, forgot about that. We should be posting in the spring banter thread though imo
  24. cmillzz
    Yeah, the last few springs have been pretty nice around these parts. 2024 in particular was absolutely stellar, maybe the best ever.
  25. cmillzz
    Hour 300, why are we even doing this... but anyway
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