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cmillzz

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Everything posted by cmillzz

  1. cmillzz
    Oh, yeah, may just be confined to the 18th LOL. All snow threats confined to your north as well.
  2. cmillzz
    Idk about the east, but Chicago having its earliest 7 day streak of 50°+ on record is hardly "wishcasting". Don't really care about the weather anywhere else tbh, it's been very mild (and dry, up until this past week) here since mid Feb. Besides, you'll be torching for a few days this upcoming week too, so idk why you'd be skeptical of another torch brewing later on in an even more favorable pattern for sustained warmth + later in the year with a rising sun angle.
  3. cmillzz
    brrr
  4. cmillzz
    Teleconnections look completely unfavorable for a sustained below average temp regime during the second half of March though. I just think the models are completely off base here in regards to what happens after St. Patrick's Day for the Midwest especially.
  5. cmillzz
    AI GFS wasn’t terrible, and funnily enough it’s been one of the more consistent models. Seems to be fairly good at picking up long range pattern changes.
  6. cmillzz
    Still applies now. I can't ever recall seeing such inconsistency in the medium/long range, even the ensembles are struggling.
  7. cmillzz
    I had a +4.3 departure in Feb and will finish with one of the warmest first 10 days of March btw, so hardly much of a "colder trend" as of recent. Matter of fact, it's in the 60s with full sun here as I type this and will be nearing 70 Monday/Tuesday, lmao.
  8. cmillzz
    Just to give an example of the Euro's glaringly obvious cold bias/mishandling of long range patterns, here's what it was showing for 18z Thursday back on the first of the month. Newer run on the bottom, as which you can see it corrected warmer.
  9. cmillzz
    Hence why I say eastward, though I do expect some northward expansion of the ridge too. A lot of it will depend on how much existing snow cover there ends up being in the northern regions.
  10. cmillzz
    Ended up being a horrible bust like I thought (the week 2 cooling thing), and likely will be again, at least to an extent.
  11. cmillzz
    Don’t really see anything to stop the ridge from expanding eastward once we get after the equinox (and it’s already been a very warm start to March), but we’ll see. Cold shot looks short-lived and unremarkable too, especially in comparison to the unprecedented heat encompassing the desert southwest. I’m talking mainly for the Midwest though, maybe New England holds on to the cold for longer.
  12. cmillzz
    The only cold period is the 3/16-3/19 period, then warms up significantly afterwards. Would expect warmer trends in the coming days as the models have a tendency to erroneously hold on to the cold for longer than it should when there’s such a vast lack of high-latitude blocking. As I said before and will say again, meteorology > modelology. Funny thing is it’s already been a blowtorch for virtually the entire CONUS
  13. cmillzz
    Yeah, 100s for Phoenix is likely
  14. cmillzz
    Would be surprised if NYC only finishes with a +0.8 departure, but still very early so can understand being conservative.
  15. cmillzz
    Looks like a CONUS-wide blowtorch setting up on the ensembles
  16. cmillzz
    Fairly strong signal for a major system to impact the region around the St. Patrick’s day timeframe. @OrdIowPitMsp gets absolutely clobbered on the 12z GFS.
  17. cmillzz
    might see a blizzard on the 4th of July
  18. cmillzz
    guess you can write off next winter for the Midwest.
  19. cmillzz
    EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again
  20. cmillzz
    Nearing 80 (with dews near 60) at @King James, extremely impressive for early March.
  21. cmillzz
    Yeah, you can def see the emergence of a much warmer pattern towards the end of the ensembles. Quite a strong signal already, so I’m sure there’s some truth to it.
  22. cmillzz
    Maybe some truth to it
  23. cmillzz
    You’d think the AIFS is closer to the correct solution given the lack of blocking. Really think the OP Euro is out to lunch here, but we’ll see.
  24. cmillzz
    Love waking up to the sound of thundery downpours in the morning
  25. cmillzz
    Wouldn’t mind waiting until April for a true torch since averages will be higher then, making the warmth more useful.
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