cmillzz
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Everything posted by cmillzz
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been much warmer and wetter than a "normal" spring and will continue to be for the forseeable future, but okay lol
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define “normal”
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It was always obvious this was going to be a very warm spring tbh, but some people kept trying to hang on to winter for as long as possible.
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and the torch did indeed verify with back to back 80s possible today and tomorrow. Chicago should finish the month with a monthly mean max around 55.3, which would be a tie for 5th warmest on record. A few cool days does not negate the fact that it's been objectively very warm overall.
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South bend is on track to having a top 10 warmest March this year (7th warmest overall), half the days this month have been 60+ there, wow. It's been an impressively warm March for most, especially with respect to daily maximums. Third very warm March in a row now.
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3 degrees off the mark atm, def got closer than you were expecting.
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And the vast majority of days in Chicago (ORD anyhow) will be >50° going forward, so I’m not sure what the problem is exactly.
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2026-2027 El Nino
cmillzz replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
AI GFS did a damn good job here with these temps as the high was indeed in the lower 60s for Chicago on the 19th with 70s in Iowa and 50s in Detroit, very impressive given the lead time. And of course, the cold shot ended up being confined to just the 18th, unsurprisingly.
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Think the EPS is getting too carried away with the eastern troughing again on day 5-10, seems over amplified. It’s been doing this for some time now, only to correct warmer once we get inside of hour 120.
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2026-2027 El Nino
cmillzz replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
March 2023 was very cold in the west though, so completely different patterns. -
he’s implying we’re going back into a cold and wintry pattern, which isn’t true at all aside from a couple brief, seasonal cool shots.
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not really
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My guess is DTW finishes March around +5. Not quite as warm as last year, but I'd still consider that to be a borderline torch.
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Damn, even warmer than 2012? That’d be extremely impressive
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Seems like they're all clueless to varying degrees.
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And it's already been solidly above average over halfway through the month. Quite a different pattern from what we saw this winter with parts of the Northeast actually experiencing the greatest temp departures from normal in the lower 48.
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It’s already been a torch month for virtually the entire CONUS and aside from the brief early week cold shot, will continue to torch (except for the far northeast perhaps). Doesn’t need to be 2012 to be defined as a “torch”.
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Really wouldn’t be that absurd if it did tbh, especially given how torch days in early spring tend to overperform. I’d say 75+ is certainly in play anyhow.
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80 on Sat?
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Going to be a huge temp gradient setting up this week between WI and IL
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Looks like Green Bay had their second biggest snowstorm on record with 26.1" being the final tally, not too shabby.
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I think most people in the east are in spring mode (or should be) at this point after such a great winter that ended on a spectacular note.
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Easily warmer than that.
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Kind of a yikes here by the Euro, no idea why it was so off-base with this event (though some other models were pretty bad too).
