cmillzz

Some evidence that the warmth will make a comeback in late March. You can sort of tell on the end of the EPS with the ridge rebuilding and expanding east, though that’s still a long ways out.

Last March was top 10 warmest FWIW. Pretty sure the only bad stretch last spring was the mid-late May period.

Yeah, forgot about that. We should be posting in the spring banter thread though imo

Yeah, the last few springs have been pretty nice around these parts. 2024 in particular was absolutely stellar, maybe the best ever.

Hour 300, why are we even doing this... but anyway

LOT has 69 in the point for ORD tomorrow, which is only one degree off the record for that date.

The Euro had the same exact look for this past week at the same time juncture back in Feb and busted horribly (which I called out for its BS). Meanwhile, Chicago will be potentially breaking record highs in the coming days (including tomorrow). Anything hour 240+ is pure fantasy and don't really bother paying any mind to.

Not riding this?

Yeah, that's not verifying.

Extended looks good IMO. Models are still highly erratic though, so will be expecting many wild run-to-run swings.

That’s a very strong warm signal for being so far out, quite noteworthy IMO. Def something to keep an eye on to see if it trends towards something historic or just a run-of-the-mill early spring warm up.

Take a look at this morning’s AI GFS for a laugh, it’s a literal March 2012 redux. Fun to look at, but I’m sure it’ll be mild at times.

I feel like that one underperformed slightly regarding snow amounts, even for the LOT CWA. IIRC the wind was ripping apart the dendrites and lowering ratios, so was falling like pixie dust. But then again, wouldn’t have been the same without the big wind, so did meet overall expectations.

EPS trended significantly warmer today. Yesterday’s 12z run was completely nonsensical, so not too surprising.

lol, these models

AI Euro is largely a nonevent, though its performance as of late has been a bit questionable.

Trending towards weak and suppressed it seems.

I’m not saying we see a March 2012 redux this year, but at the same time I just don’t see any evidence to suggest we see a cold mid-latitudes pattern. Teleconnections look completely unfavorable for the most part, and the MJO ain’t exactly playing ball either. Chicago had its earliest 7 day streak of 50°+ on record this past week (with most of those days being 55°+ and even a few 60s), while the weeklies were forecasting entrenched cold for that timeframe a few weeks beforehand. So color me skeptical that we see an extension of winter linger well into March. In essence, meteorology > modelology

I’d completely toss today’s runs, but we’ll see what actually happens.

Some of the models are way too cold in the long range it would appear, like the ECMWF for example, which seems to be overdoing the amount of high latitude blocking (pathetic performance with the nor’easter as well). Would expect some warmer corrections in the coming days. Pretty frustrating how unreliable the models have become though.

All of the models have sucked lately tbh, especially past day 5.

Quite a temp gradient going on this month. Far western part of the sub is near record warm while the far east is below average. Chicago/ORD is running a +6.5 temp departure thus far, not quite record warm, but still very mild.

Hell of a way to end a record breaking warm spell (last 10 days were the warmest on record at MSP).

The warmth has definitely shifted east as the winter has progressed though, with the warmest anomalies now being centered over the Plains/Midwest as of recent. May continue to shift further east as we head deeper into spring. We’ll see.

You're acting like the Euro weekly is some crystal ball that can nail a 5 week forecast. Can easily have the wrong idea and bust horribly here, like it did for the Mid-Feb pattern back in Jan as it completely missed the record warmth that is currently dominating the Midwest. It's not even entirely clear how the pattern will look to start March, let alone to END the month.