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cmillzz

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Everything posted by cmillzz

  1. cmillzz
    The only cold period is the 3/16-3/19 period, then warms up significantly afterwards. Would expect warmer trends in the coming days as the models have a tendency to erroneously hold on to the cold for longer than it should when there’s such a vast lack of high-latitude blocking. As I said before and will say again, meteorology > modelology. Funny thing is it’s already been a blowtorch for virtually the entire CONUS
  2. cmillzz
    Yeah, 100s for Phoenix is likely
  3. cmillzz
    Would be surprised if NYC only finishes with a +0.8 departure, but still very early so can understand being conservative.
  4. cmillzz
    Looks like a CONUS-wide blowtorch setting up on the ensembles
  5. cmillzz
    Fairly strong signal for a major system to impact the region around the St. Patrick’s day timeframe. @OrdIowPitMsp gets absolutely clobbered on the 12z GFS.
  6. cmillzz
    might see a blizzard on the 4th of July
  7. cmillzz
    guess you can write off next winter for the Midwest.
  8. cmillzz
    EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again
  9. cmillzz
    Nearing 80 (with dews near 60) at @King James, extremely impressive for early March.
  10. cmillzz
    Yeah, you can def see the emergence of a much warmer pattern towards the end of the ensembles. Quite a strong signal already, so I’m sure there’s some truth to it.
  11. cmillzz
    Maybe some truth to it
  12. cmillzz
    You’d think the AIFS is closer to the correct solution given the lack of blocking. Really think the OP Euro is out to lunch here, but we’ll see.
  13. cmillzz
    Love waking up to the sound of thundery downpours in the morning
  14. cmillzz
    Wouldn’t mind waiting until April for a true torch since averages will be higher then, making the warmth more useful.
  15. cmillzz
    Looks like we Morch
  16. cmillzz
    I know, hour 360. Goes to show how useless the models are at long range forecasting lol.
  17. cmillzz
    Some evidence that the warmth will make a comeback in late March. You can sort of tell on the end of the EPS with the ridge rebuilding and expanding east, though that’s still a long ways out.
  18. cmillzz
    Last March was top 10 warmest FWIW. Pretty sure the only bad stretch last spring was the mid-late May period.
  19. cmillzz
    Yeah, forgot about that. We should be posting in the spring banter thread though imo
  20. cmillzz
    Yeah, the last few springs have been pretty nice around these parts. 2024 in particular was absolutely stellar, maybe the best ever.
  21. cmillzz
    Hour 300, why are we even doing this... but anyway
  22. cmillzz
    LOT has 69 in the point for ORD tomorrow, which is only one degree off the record for that date.
  23. cmillzz
    The Euro had the same exact look for this past week at the same time juncture back in Feb and busted horribly (which I called out for its BS). Meanwhile, Chicago will be potentially breaking record highs in the coming days (including tomorrow). Anything hour 240+ is pure fantasy and don't really bother paying any mind to.
  24. cmillzz
    Not riding this?
  25. cmillzz
    Yeah, that's not verifying.
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