2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies favorable?

 Thanks, Anthony, for posting that.

 I don’t disagree with this post done by Luzerne County. What I mean by that is IF there were to happen to be an actual H5 similar to that, it could favor a snowstorm then. But, and this is very important: this is as it says just the control run for EW hour 912 (0Z on 12/9/26) rather than the EW mean for hour 912. So, this is like an op Euro at hour 912, which of course has no forecasting skill and will change notably from run to run the vast majority of the time. For that matter, I’d say this about hour 312 or even earlier of the op Euro or op anything. I know you know this, but you may not realize this is just the near worthless way out in the extended control run. They clearly want clicks and thus was a bad post by Luzerne County imho.

 A more informative post by Luzerne County, even though it is still way way out there, would have shown the EW means for the week covering that period, Dec 7-13:

H5:

2m temps:

 

Precip:

Not the worst pattern by any means but far from great.

@mitchnick