frontranger8
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Everything posted by frontranger8
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I'm not sure you understand "cheerleading". It's all discussion. Move along.
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I'm such an idiot.
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And I believe it's being discussed? Geez...ice narrative nazi here.
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You're confusing this with the musings of exceptionally early mins (before 9/5) we hear every year. You think we'll see a min after 9/12?
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Given the upcoming pattern, a late minimum (past 9/12) looks very unlikely. Good chance the min is before 9/10.
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It was actually prior that I said that. Probably depends on how long the dipole persists. Hard to say, given that it's a pretty destructive pattern, but coming so late in the season. I'd probably say 3rd-5th is most likely at this point for area, at least.
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And that pattern was much different than the one we've been in the past few days. Much smaller cyclone, stronger, and not nearly as cold. Looks like a dipole develops next, though, so should see losses pick up again soon. But we're well past peak melting season, so that's the good news (if you're rooting for ice survival rather than annihilation).
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Ice loss has slowed the past few days, as expected. No Icepocalypse, nothing like 2012.
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That pattern is actually just now setting in.
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I think at this point, 4th-6th is most likely for both extent and area. It looks as though we'll remain in a favorable pattern for the ice through the 20th. By then, it starts getting a lot tougher to lose big chunks.
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However, this upcoming PV does look to provide anomalously cold temps for much of the basin. Definitely not way above the 20th century average.
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I don't think so. It's very broad and actually quite cold at times for this time of year. Similar pattern to what we've seen much of this summer, only stronger and colder. Some areas that have very thin ice and get strong winds will break up more, but overall it looks like more of an ice preservation pattern. Definitely not Icemageddon.
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Looks like a pretty cold and large PV coming back here soon.
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I don't understand that. It's been proven repeatedly that there is little predictability until late spring at the earliest.
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This is not a fair statement. How many sources do we have actually measuring LT temps? And yet you claim the satellite sources are "outliers". Being inconsistent with the theory does not make a source an outlier, as Will explained above.
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But then again, UAH had run pretty close to RSS in the past. It's strange how they'd been diverging prior to the update as well. Nothing is black/white here.
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I believe UAH is .15C/decade, compared to the .17C/decade for surface trends. That's within the realm of statistical noise, and not actually scientifically significant...it's been explained in more detail many times on here. Also, I don't believe your .11C/decade number is right for "implied" surface trend. Not sure why you grouped UAH/RSS together, yet only cited RSS' trend. Some might think that demonstrates bias...
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I was referring more to the recent rash of questions on here: "What's going on with the satellite temps not mirroring the surface data??" Short term view vs. long term. The differences in the long term trends between satellite data sets and surface are pretty minor.
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Why don't people apply this same logic to the satellite data sets? Instead they get all wrapped up in short term stuff.
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The statement was about strong melt in August with strong -NAO. That hasn't been the case. Still a lot of month, though.
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If I was hunting for busts, it would have been this.
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Looks like we briefly flirted with 55%. Regardless, any comparison to 2012 has been shut down in August. It's no longer even close. Three weeks ago, this was looking like it would be the second greatest melt year after 2012...not so sure about that now.
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Doesn't look like it got higher than low 50s. Obviously still a huge melt from mid June to late July, though.
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What a turnaround for Greenland from June/July. Huge dropoff in melt. How does this August compare to previous years?
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When will the 2012 Arctic ice extent minimum record be broken?
frontranger8 replied to Mallow's topic in Climate Change
Agree on all points. Of course, this poll is for extent. But I think TGW was referring to pattern primarily.