It's coming? 1/31-2/1

[Wannabehippie]

28 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Major difference is the PNA ridge amplification. I’d like to see that continue tonight. It would amplify the trough downstream. This would pull it further SW. Look at the height trends starting to rise off the east coast. I don’t think we’re out of the game yet. It’s the bottom of the 7th but we have a few runners on and we’re down by a few runs!

[Prue11]

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

On the other hand Miller As you generally will get an all snow event. Miller B often brings a mixed bag thanks to that inland primary low.

Prefer the miller a at least for me on LI. Miller a‘s are usually the one that drop 1-3’. The storm this last Sunday was a very weird system that truly over performed out here 

[jdj5211]

NAM running….


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[Freezing Drizzle]

2 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Would be close to blizzard criteria if euro verified wonder what the lowest total blizzard amount is for nyc?? 

NYCSNOW - During the winter of 1976 or 1977 there was an area-wide event dubbed the "One inch blizzard." It was exactly what they called it. You might be able to search for it.

[TJW014]

NAM pops a low 300 miles east of the Bahamas lol

[Brasiluvsnow]

Hopefully between now and Saturday the thread title can be changed to

YES, It's coming ! 

and the observation thread can be called

It's Finally Here !

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, TJW014 said:

NAM pops a low 300 miles east of the Bahamas lol

Trof has more positive tilt than 18z

[nycsnow]

Nam wayyyyy OTS

[Jt17]

Nam wayyyyy OTS

It does countless wonky things on this run. But hey who knows. Not us.


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[TJW014]

Recon are sampling the upper-level shortwave off PNW that will kick off our storm. IDK if dropsonde data is being ingested by this model run, but definitely 06z.

[dseagull]

12z tomorrow.  See y'all  then.  Have to fix the hydraulic lines on all of my machines.   Hope the next storm is powder... screw the weight of ice.  

[nycsnow]

Icon same as 18z so at least it didn’t go back east lol

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Icon same as 18z so at least it didn’t go back east lol

2 lows again on the icon 

[WeatherGeek2025]

This isn't an official model but I am doing some algorithms with all the models and atmospheric pressure logging them all in and an AI agent is coming up with the track. 

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

This isn't an official model but I am doing some algorithms with all the models and atmospheric pressure logging them all in and an AI agent is coming up with the track. 

 

We can pray. 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

This isn't an official model but I am doing some algorithms with all the models and atmospheric pressure logging them all in and an AI agent is coming up with the track. 

 

 

[psv88]

What’s the status? I can’t read back. Good trends?

[TJW014]

RGEM with stronger ridging over the West Coast. Trof has a bit more negative tilt to it also.

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

This isn't an official model but I am doing some algorithms with all the models and atmospheric pressure logging them all in and an AI agent is coming up with the track. 

 

[TJW014]

[donsutherland1]

The 0z RGEM develops the lead low. Not surprisingly, it exits well south and east of the region. The earlier run developed the trailing low. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What’s the status? I can’t read back. Good trends?

 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 0z RGEM develops the lead low. Not surprisingly, it exits well south and east of the region. The earlier run developed the trailing low. 

Pick your choice there’s 17 lows lol models are getting more confused as we get closer 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 0z RGEM develops the lead low. Not surprisingly, it exits well south and east of the region. The earlier run developed the trailing low. 

Rgem looks way better than the Nam and looks decent. 

[MJO812]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Pick your choice there’s 17 lows lol models are getting more confused as we get closer 

 

Yep models might be confused on which low to work with .

[wxman]

At this point just need to hope the euro has a handle on this and adjusts west over the next 48 hours.  It's possible. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

 

Its coming

[MegaMike]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

This isn't an official model but I am doing some algorithms with all the models and atmospheric pressure logging them all in and an AI agent is coming up with the track. 

 

Excellent! Now try running these modeling systems (similar to the AIGFS and EC-AIFS). They'll perform better and you'll get a good challenge out of it 

https://github.com/google-deepmind/graphcast

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

He definitely gets an A+ for effort. If you don’t like what the models show…make your own….

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Pick your choice there’s 17 lows lol models are getting more confused as we get closer 

 

Yes. It might not be until Friday before a solid consensus is achieved.