It's coming 1/31-2/1

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

ICON OTS


.

doesn't matter how far west the trough is it has to turn negative sooner - if it stays positive the chances of the storm moving up the coast too far east increases

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Great shift

Seems kinda disjointed with the energy until it’s too late and out to sea. In any case it’s the Icon and not too concerned. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I doubt there's ever been a storm where Hatteras gets a foot and we get nothing

Cape Hatteras has only received two 12" or above snowstorms:

December 29-30, 1917 12.0" (NYC: 2.0")

December 23-24, 1989 13.3" (NYC: None)

[Lucy Pull]

GFS further west with northern stream than euro and even its 6z at hr66. See if that translates as the run continues….

[NJwx85]

The Northern stream shortwave over the Canadian prairies acts as a kicker. It’s a lot slower on the GFS than the Euro or the ICON. That’s going to be a major issue if the faster/stronger idea is correct.

[mikem81]

Just now, Lucy Pull said:

GFS further west with northern stream than euro and even its 6z at hr66. See if that translates as the run continues….

AI GFS looks NW of 06 by a bit as well.

 

[mikem81]

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Northern stream shortwave over the Canadian prairies acts as a kicker. It’s a lot slower on the GFS than the Euro or the ICON. That’s going to be a major issue if the faster/stronger idea is correct.

Yep, we might be singing its praises later this week if the coastal storm development gets itself together so we’re not tracking this into NYC. The ridge axis here doesn’t scream way offshore track to me. 

[psv88]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'd be more worried about ice damming than structural issues, unless your house is framed with balsa wood.

Based on the temperature forecast and the amount of snow on my roof, I am worried about ice damming.

Yea I already have roof damming. May have to call someone soon to take care of it

[MJO812]

Gfs is coming west

[Joe4alb]

same idea as ICON... 

[NJwx85]

Some slight improvements on the GFS but don’t know if it’ll be enough.

[jm1220]

We can afford baby steps at this lead time. 

[Joe4alb]

MUCH better looking 

[Franklin0529]

Here she comes

[NJwx85]

GFS looks great to me at H5. Trough axis is further West and more amped.

[NJwx85]

[NJwx85]

[Joe4alb]

[Joe4alb]

[Joe4alb]

[NJwx85]

The kicker is stronger though, and it still gets kicked East. Reminds me of Juno (yes, I despise naming winter storms)

[DreamBig]

timing is later, but still gets kicked out to sea after stalling

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This look verbatim is not going to do it for us.  Even a neutral tilt would be better than this.

[SACRUS]

 

1/27 12z ICON total QPF

[Franklin0529]

Gets 2ft into Southern Jersey. Definitely a step in the right direction. Let's see the euro do the same. Still plenty of time 

[SACRUS]

 

1/27 12z GFS  ACY white out

 

[NJwx85]

We need more wave spacing. Also, the storm peaks well South of us and is already occluding as it passes East.

[SACRUS]

 

1/27 12z GFS AI AIGFS  Total QPF

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

1/27 12z GFS  ACY white out

 

50-75 miles further NW would do it.  Right where you want the GFS at this lead time!