February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[BlizzardNole]

51 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

fwiw, during the cold winters of the '70s, the longwave pattern shifted as spring neared such that we flipped to the warm side

This reminds me of the winter of '77 in MD where we got a moderate snow of around 6" with a crust of ice followed by weeks of frigid and dry.  The glacier lasted for weeks and January was an incredible -12 departure at DCA, but it lacked in the total snow department.

[clueless]

@270 we get clipped on the GFS. Also just one week shy of sun angle season. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

19 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Any idea of when the February thaw arrives?

With our luck, March.

[87storms]

25 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

With our luck, March.

Temps in the 30s might feel like a thaw by next week.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Feb 11-12 window?

Long way out so I would expand that window a bit.. 

The NA looks very favorable and I know Chuck will swoop in here and do his -PNA deb thing, but this works out at times(more so in a Nino) with potentially significant energy ejecting eastward from the SW.

[Weather Will]

Sigh:  WB 18Z EURO AI; can't make this stuff up.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Sigh:  WB 18Z EURO AI; can't make this stuff up.

LOL come on dude with the snow maps 2 weeks out

[Weather Will]

Just now, CAPE said:

LOL come on dude with the snow maps 2 weeks out

I know but that picture fits the mood right now....

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Long way out so I would expand that window a bit.. 

The NA looks very favorable and I know Chuck will swoop in here and do his -PNA deb thing, but this works out at times(more so in a Nino) with potentially significant energy ejecting eastward from the SW.

I like that general LW pattern a lot. Precip isn't usually a problem unlike an amplified +pna/-epo pattern with the ridge axis over the west conus. The pna/epo pattern is colder but it difficult to get moisture laden storms. Lots of fronts and high-pressures without big synoptic systems. The pattern in your post has multiple ways for some juice in the system. 

I've been casually watching the cfs weeklies and they've been looking tasty for the second half of Feb for at least the past week. Similar to what you posted just 2 weeks later:

 

 

[CAPE]

Latest weeklies for mid Feb. NA blocking and a Nino-ish look overall. It generally likes to snow here in Feb, and this is an h5 look that can facilitate that.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Latest weeklies for mid Feb. NA blocking and a Nino-ish look overall. It generally likes to snow here in Feb, and this is an h5 look that can facilitate that.

It's funny how February has historically been our snowiest month...yet since 2016 it's been mostly terrible! Would be good to have a traditional snow February for a change 

[Ji]

Latest weeklies for mid Feb. NA blocking and a Nino-ish look overall. It generally likes to snow here in Feb, and this is an h5 look that can facilitate that.

It hasent snowed here in February since 2015

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

It hasent snowed here in February since 2015

Under 7 days away

[Ji]

Under 7 days away

Been watching that … don’t know how to beef it up

[Nomz]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Under 7 days away

...oh?

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Been watching that … don’t know how to beef it up

Shortwave is across guidance and it has a gulf/baja connection but it's not impressive for now. Run of the mill but has trended towards a better pass underneath us. Cmc has it and h5 looks half decent 

[Nomz]

Yeah looks off timing but ton of time for that to change. Not gonna stress about it till JMA hits us with 30".

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Been watching that … don’t know how to beef it up

It's going to fall apart.

What else we got?

[Ji]

It's going to fall apart.
What else we got?

My Feb 11-12 window

[Nomz]

Just now, Ji said:

My Feb 11-12 window

You can't claim a storm 14 days out

[Ji]

You can't claim a storm 14 days out

Yes I can

[Ji]

I’m claiming this too

Actually the entire month

[TowsonWeather]

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Sigh:  WB 18Z EURO AI; can't make this stuff up.

 

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

 

At least I'm in the dark blue now.

[stormtracker]

lol, Euro tries the EXACT same thing Next Saturday as it's doing for this Saturday.  Can't make this shit up.  Same result

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, Euro tries the EXACT same thing Next Saturday as it's doing for this Saturday.  Can't make this shit up.  Same result

Came in here to talk about the same thing...like bruh whhhyyy? Lol (If it does end up looking like that we'll know this time to ignore the threat altogether!

[CAPE]

It does look like the next tease will be late next week on the ensembles.

[CAPE]

No end to the cold in sight with this h5 pattern. Hopefully it isnt all wasted.

[wasnow215]

5 hours ago, Nomz said:

You can't claim a storm 14 days out

You claim a storm that far away and you ABSOLUTELY can claim it! Lol

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

My Feb 11-12 window

Make a detailed post discussing the modeled synoptics and why you believe this window holds potential for a winter storm.